Daryl Carter's Tips: Chance Varian's runner to finally come good at Hamilton

• P/L update

• Minimal play at BSP at Hamilton

• Better expected from Spectacular Style up in trip

It's not been the best past week, so it's probably ideal that my annual September break comes around. For those who are remotely interested--and I expect that to be minimal--I am away until next Tuesday in Italy doing a bit of sightseeing. It's my and my wife's first wedding anniversary, and we are heading to Rome, Naples, Sorrento, and Capri this week.

When I am back, looking ahead to the jumps season, it will be pedal to the metal, and Betfair has some excellent things planned.

So, for now, be lucky, bet responsibly, and don't forget to check out the two ante-post bets offered for this week's Newmarket meeting. I will let you know via my Twitter @darylcarter7 if there is anything of further significance.

15:33 Hamilton - Back Spectacular Style @ BSP 0.5pt

2 (3)

Spectacular Style

• J: Ray Dawson
• T: Roger Varian
• F:

With Leicester's abandonment on Sunday, there was little to get excited about for my final column before I departed for a short break, which has possibly come at a good time. I had been looking forward to Sea Journey heading to Leicester for the Gosdens and had written a fairly strong case for the daughter of Sea The Stars. Should she be entered while I am away, I would urge followers to consider her seriously.

Still, there's no point in dwelling on what wasn't to be; instead, look to Hamilton. From a betting perspective, only one horse interested me, and that was our recent column selection, Spectacular Style.

There's no escaping from his Sandown disappointment, but he was never well positioned on the rail and lacked the gears to get involved once in the clear. It's best to be forgiving of that effort. Today, he returns to Hamilton, a venue that saw him bolt up last year in outstanding style. He beat very little here last September, but his subsequent Newmarket fourth suggests he is a well-handicapped horse, and the return to this venue is a positive if only for the fact he had a good experience here.

He is becoming a frustrating horse to back, so confidence cannot be high, but this is only his fourth handicap outing and his second at this Class 4 level. I am interested in seeing him finally on a slower surface. Things happen too quickly for him on fast ground, but today, we may see him in a better light. He has no experience on a slower surface, but his half-brother was a heavy ground winner, and his dam won her only start on a slower surface.

There are dangers here, headed by Wickywickywheels, who drops back in grade and is handicapped to go well. She is down in trip and, if ridden aggressively, could be hard to catch.

Wait for BSP for the best price, as he is at his basement odds opening at 3/14.00.

P/L Report

This P/L report lists every month of the year from left to right as, advised prices, SP and BSP prices. These are screenshots from the extensive Excel spreadsheet.

January +29.38

February -20.52

March +54.01

April -9.85

May +5.83

June +16.19

July +13.59

August -18.66

September +21.5 (Not including Monday's 0.5pt win bet)

The total for the year is as follows:

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) NOV 1st

2024 P/L = +91.48 ROI 10.30%
BSP P/L = +51.5 ROI 5.79%
2024 P/L Ante-post = +5.33

Best Days of 2024

The images below are the best days across the year, Fridays and Saturdays. These days align with the better class of racing, something we have previously touched on and will again touch on at the end-of-year review to improve this column for the following year.

Friday's +53.71

Saturday's +127.50

By course (Not including Sunday's bets at Hamilton)

Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.