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Easy ground and Newbury track will ensure the real Arrest is on show
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Class droppers and well-handicapped horses
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Saturday Extra place races should be taken advantage of
It takes a leap of faith to back John And Thady Gosden's Arrest - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - having been below par on his last two outings. Still, they were both far more competitive races than this and less we forget he went off a 4/15.00 favourite for the Epsom Derby on his penultimate outing.
The last two occasions have seen the ground too quick for him, but his latest outing when a 12-length fifth in the Group 2 King Edward saw a plodding pace and a race turned into a sprint. That didn't suit him as he always wanted to go a yard quicker throughout, and he was hardly asked for any effort, with Frankie Dettori conceding that the ground was unfavoured.
This is a drop into calmer waters today down into a Group 3 contest, and a return to rain-softened ground (raining heavily on Friday as I write) is positive, and it would be a shock if he did not go off a well-supported favourite for this.
He was pretty devastating at Chester on his seasonal return when demolishing Irish Derby runner-up Adelaide River for the second time in two starts and Hadrianus - the latter only 3/4 of a length behind Klondike at Goodwood next time when eased off.
The return to a left-handed track, particularly this Newbury venue, will suit Arrest with a sweeping left-handed bend and a long home straight, giving him plenty of time to get motoring.
It would be highly disappointing if he could not take care of Kemari, who gained his first win at Newmarket since the Queen's Vase in 2021, and both of those races have very suspect form. Kemari's Newmarket victory saw him take advantage of the lack of fitness of New London and Al Aasy when dictating a slowly run race, and he only clung on at the line.
Shandoz is a very useful horse, but if he can swan in after 656 days off the track and give six pounds to Arrest, then something in the matrix has gone wrong, while Jack Darcy looks as though coming back from 1m4f to 1m2f rather than going up in distance would be the right move.
Klondike is a clear danger, and as a responsible punter, a stake saver on him may ensure you don't lose on the race, but Arrest will likely prove the best of these and holds the fellow three-year-old on the form book.
The 3/14.00 about the selection looks more than fair, and anything bigger than 9/43.25 is acceptable.
Mitrosonfire - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks like a good each-way value bet, with the Sportsbook paying five places in this unique contest.
The five-year-old was a big eye-catcher at Ascot in the Moet And Chandon when travelling like a well-handicapped horse, only to be forced to wait for a run when moving intensely just off the pace. The leaders fell into his lap as the pace lifted, and he was caught with nowhere to go.
That run signalled that a return to form could be imminent, and he now drops back into a Class 4 contest for the first time since winning this race in 2021, having been a consistent factor in Class 2 and 3 contests, including a course victory in the former.
The other angle for an improved performance for Mitrosonfire is the drop back to six furlongs for the first time on turf since a narrow two-length defeat in the Stewards Cup Consolation race in July 2022 - a trip that has seen six of his seven career wins.
He is twice a Newmarket July course winner, and, Interestingly, his seventh victory, which came over seven furlongs, was on this track. He has been building to a bigger performance in four outings this season, and this looks like a good opening for him.
The biggest threat is the returning and unexposed Celtic Champion, while Strike looked in good heart last time, and Silver Samurai, back down in grade, has similar claims to the selection, although I have had him down for some time as a flat track horse.
Back Mitrosonfire at 8/19.00 or bigger.
With the Betfair Sportsbook paying five places, I want to take a stab with Snash - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - having caught the eye under tender handling at Chepstow last time, having been outpaced and then staying on under hand and heels.
That track suits five-furlong horses running over six furlongs, not seven-furlong horses running over six, if that makes sense. The leaders can keep rolling, and it's tough to come from off the pace, given the nature of the downhill track.
Still, he wasn't knocked about, and he now returns to Ripon, where he was beaten three lengths in the Great St Wilfred on this card last year and is 17 lbs lower in the handicap.
He was denied a clear run at a crucial stage last year and did well to finish as close as he did. His form has since tailed off, but all of the headgear he has worn in the last 18 months has now come off and he might be worth small stakes to bounce back returned to this venue.
He is drawn lowest of all in stall one but has a pacemaker in Prince Of Bel Lir in stall three, and it's usually the smaller group that splits to the far side, which will help with any traffic issues.
He looks the best-handicapped horse in the race, so he is worth taking a wild chance with at no shorter than 20/121.00.
Again the Betfair Sportsbook is paying five places, and it might be worth taking advantage of that with Cairn Gorm - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who arrives very much on the upgrade, having won with any amount in hand at York last time.
On the Knavesmire, he hit the front a long way from home and idled in the closing stages, but the turn of foot he showed to pull away from the bulk of the field was very eye-catching and worthy of more than a four pounds rise.
The form has worked out well. The fourth ran a neck second over the same course and distance to subsequent Stewards Cup hero Aberama Gold before scoring twice more at Haydock and Chepstow over five furlongs. The sixth has been narrowly beaten the next twice, and the fourth went close in the Racing League at Chepstow next time.
Cairn Gorm is a former classy customer who seems to have appreciated the gelding and wind operation this season and arrives at this contest on an upward curve and well handicapped from his glory days.
He is drawn well in stall 14 amongst the pace, and in the hope Laura Pearson can deliver him a little later than Rossa Ryan did at York, he should be in the thick of things off of this rating of just 84.
Connections have recently given him an Ayr Gold Cup entry, and that must mean they think he is well handicapped, considering you wouldn't have got into that race off less than 92 last year. His latest RPR rating would concur with connections' thoughts, and he looks overpriced at anything bigger than 8/19.00.
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