Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Alan 4/1 can claim back our cash with repeat win at Nottingham

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has two selections on Wednesday.

Daryl Carter has two selections for Wednesday's racing from Nottingham and Bath and looks to Betfair's Paul Nicholls to land a winner on the flat...

  • Mr Alan can reward punters' faith following defeat at Ayr

  • Paul Nicholls' Killaloan could have any amount in hand at Bath

15:45 Nottingham - Back Mr Alan @ 4/15.00 1pt win

The market would always favour the unexposed three-year-old Ragheeb, who looked impressive on return at Lingfield despite dictating a slow run race. Still, it's hard to get a handle on his achievements with little worthwhile form and no decent speed figure.

However, his unknown quantity (it's best to treat these types with respect) means more of a cautious approach is taken when backing Mr Alan - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who would be a more substantial bet without his rival presence having shaped well at Ayr on seasonal return.

He moved strongly into a better race than this before he folded inside the final furlong and shaped as though in need of the run (read that selection here).

As many of you will know, he has been on the radar for some time, and I won't cover too much old ground. Still, he has improved significantly for his seasonal return on RPR ratings the past two years, and a bigger performance awaits under optimal conditions.

He scored in this race last season as a three-year-old and arrives here fresher than most for what will likely prove a productive Autumn campaign in the mud. With conditions ripe for a big performance, he gets the vote to turn over the hot-pot favourite.

Dubai Souq has much more on his plate here than he did last time, but he is very good from the front at this venue and giving him too much rope is dangerous, so he must be feared under optimum conditions, albeit this mark is high enough.

Golden Move has a bigger performance in him, but everything is in place for a big run from Mr Alan back in grade in calmer waters, with the level of his form a notch above most of these.

15:45 Nottingham - Back Mr Alan @ 4/15.00

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17:45 Bath - Back Killaloan @ 3/14.00 1pt

Not typically my bag a Class 6 handicap, but Paul Nicholls' Killaloan - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is one to take seriously switched to the flat off of a handy rating of just 66.

He took a while to get going for the Ditcheat yard over hurdles but ended last season on a high before an excusable run at Sandown in the hotly contested Novices Hurdle final.

The fact that he went off at just 13/27.50 for that race and his previous time figure at Ludlow confirm he is well worthy of his rating of 124 over hurdles.

The typical rule of thumb ( the one I use rightly or wrongly) when assessing if a horse is fairly treated when switching codes is to use 40 lbs as a guide. This means a horse should be able to perform to a rating within 40 lbs in each code. In this case, 124 - 40 = 84.

Killaloan is 18 lbs below that formula rating. It's no hard and fast rule, but it has worked for me down the years.

The fact that the five-year-old is unexposed in both spheres is also a bonus, with just six hurdle runs and three flat runs for former handler Johnny Murtagh. In Ireland, he ran a fair race on his final start for his former yard and caught the eye, having suffered a wide trip in a hot Maiden at Fairyhouse behind a now 109-rated winner.

He lacked the pace there, so the move up in distance for this return to the flat should suit. There's confidence from the camp for his chances today, and if he can't win this race against mainly exposed rivals off of this rating, then I'd struggle to back him again in this sphere.

17:45 Bath - Back Killaloan @ 3/14.00

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update November 1st

Advised Stakes = +69.5pts ROI 6.75%

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