Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/5 NAP, plus overpriced 10/1 chance at Southwell

• Two Thursday selections

• Fresh is the angle with Allen at Warwick in calmer waters

• Look to Balding to strike with unexposed miler at Southwell

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14:25 Warwick - Back Eldorado Allen @ 9/52.80 2pt (NAP)

1

Eldorado Allen (Fr)

• J: Freddie Gingell
• T: Joe Tizzard
• F:

It's been a long time between drinks for Eldorado Allen - 9/52.80 on the Betfair Sportsbook - but he has an excellent record when fresh and will find these waters much calmer to navigate into his first Veterans' Chase.

The ten-year-old gets the services of the excellent Freddie Gingell to claim three off his back to ease the burden of top weight, but it's his first time out a record that appeals. His record from 180 days off or more reads 321121. The latest was a third in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot when third to the smart Victtorino when he ran far too keen and did remarkably well to stick in there for as long as he did, and his previous was a second in the Charlie Hall to Bravemansgame.

His only three-mile victory has come on a sounder surface at Newbury in the Denman Chase, and today's conditions are optimal. He holds a strong record with "good" in the going description, and Eldorado Allen, under the same conditions on his last outing, recorded a fourth in last year's Newbury Gold Cup.

If he is going to win another race, then today must be the day. In the hope that he is ridden prominently, he can fight off some of these exposed handicappers. First Lord De Cuet has a similarly good record when fresh, and despite being 0-14, he is feared the most.

Back the selection at 13/82.63 or bigger.

17:00 Southwell - Back Cynosure @ 10/111.00 0.5pt e/w (4 places)

7 (3)

Cynosure (Ire)

• J: Jason Watson
• T: Andrew Balding
• F:

One of the more exciting runners here is Cynosure - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has an upwardly mobile profile and looks overpriced on his return from six months off.

The Andrew Balding horse has been granted a good draw for a prominent position. He is the least exposed in the field and has a progressive AW record.

The three-year-old needs to be forgiven a down-the-field effort on turf at Newmarket in a strong Class 3 Handicap in May, but he was only a 3/14.00 chance for that; the return to the AW could be the angle that rewards backers. His record on the AW reads 123, with his latest a good victory in a strong race following 155 days off the track, so today's absence should be of no concern, and the return to his optimum distance of 1m, for which he has only had two cracks producing his best RPR ratings, is a positive.

He was no match for Indelible (104) at Lingfield (1m) this time last year before a gelding operation, but it turns out he had a challenging task trying to give that smart mare five pounds, and he was a clear second, ahead of the third rated 105 (also receiving five pounds) and the fourth 82. He was also firmly in the mix at Kempton before that when a narrow third to Ciro Di Marzio (87) and Treasure Time (94), suggesting there must be scope in this rating of 84.

The selection has already shown his best work on the AW, and today is his handicap debut in this sphere from a workable rating, so it's worth overlooking his absence, which seems to have dictated his market position. Under Jason Watson (18% strike rate for Balding), he must go close and is overpriced at 7/18.00 or bigger.

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