Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/2 Haggas is hungry for more Group 2 Saturday success

• All ITV Races covered

• Tiber Flow looks good value in Hungerford Stakes

• The Big Board set to bounce back at Newbury

• Two further small chances at 25/126.00 and 20/121.00

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Tiber Flow Superboost

The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes is the feature race at Newbury today (15:35) and William Haggas has a strong chance of landing the prize with his popular 5yo grey Tiber Flow.

In just a seven-runner field the Betfair Sportsbook have boosted Tiber Flow's place price from 8/131.61 to 1/12.00 to finish in the Top 3! To take advantage of this superboost simply click on the odds below to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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13:50 Newbury - No Bet

ITV racing kicks off with the Geoffrey Freer Stakes Group 3, and recent Goodwood winner Al Aasy is turned out under a penalty following his recent cosy success in the same grade. I kicked myself for not backing him at Goodwood at 3/14.00. He was far better than those rivals and won like an odds-on chance.

Today, he is an odds-on chance at 8/111.73, but does that mean you should take him on? Goodwood saw a finishing speed of 113%, meaning the race turned into a bit of a dash from the two-furlong marker, and it suited Al Aasy perfectly, given he was facing rivals that lacked a gear (runner-up over 1m6f last time and the fourth certainly wants 1m6f). It isn't easy to pick holes in Al Aasy. He holds a record at Newbury of 1411, and the fourth came immediately following a gelding operation, which is forgivable.

Still, William Haggas is a target trainer, and I am certain he prepped Al Aasy for Goodwood, as he did the same to win the race in 2020 with Pablo Escobarr. Haggas has had just two runners in this race in the last ten years, and both were beaten, but perhaps that is not here nor there; it is still an angle to consider.

Today's race will be run much differently to Goodwood courtesy of Roberton Escobarr and Al Qareem 3/14.00. The former has plenty to prove and looks on a downward spiral, but the latter, for Karl Burke, is a very good horse on his day. He beat Al Aasy when they met in October in the Cumberland Lodge at Ascot.

I can't imagine that Clifford Lee will want to turn this into a dash following his comments on the horse after the Cumberland Lodge, where he said, " All Al Qareem does is gallop". That suggests he will want to turn this into a test, and that will ask another question of Al Aasy today. While the Haggas horse has stayed this trip before landing the Bahrain Trophy as a three-year-old, stamina will be tested to the maximum today. More of a concern will be seeing daylight earlier than ideal to go and pick up Al Qareem.

Al Qareem overdid things at Goodwood last time, but he did well hanging in there for as long as he did, and coming back on the trip will be positive for him. He may prove very tough to pass.

Go Daddy is an improving three-year-old who seemingly stays very well; however, he lacks the quality of the top two in the market and is respected as a third favourite. Sumo Sam surely has little chance on likely fast ground.

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14:05 Newmarket - Back Good Karma @ 25/126.00 0.5pt e/w

The good old Grey horse handicap 0-85 sees a wide open field, and I'd be more than happy to take on this weak favourite, Fine Interview 11/43.75, who only had to run into the low 70s to win his Maiden at Ffos Las last time and the runner-up and third have both been beaten next time.

Good Karma - 25/126.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is a bit of a swing from the hip, but he was building to a bigger performance for James Ferguson following an eye-catching effort at Epsom in July. He has since moved to James Owen's yard, which resulted in two down-the-filed efforts at Sandown. However, something looked like a miss on the first of those over a trip too far, and he was shaping well on the latest before clipping heels and losing his action.

Coming away from Sandown is a positive move. He handled the Rowley Mile undulations very well back in May before finding a mile stretching his stamina. His stride length suggests that returning to a stiff six-furlongs will suit him, and he is more than capable on a going day from this mark of 78.

First Folio and Eminency (if taking in this engagement having run in the Racing League on Thursday) are apparent threats. The latter, despite his poor Windsor performance, has a more significant effort in him at some point. I'd happily chance the selection at 16/117.00 or bigger.

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14:25 Newbury - Back The Big Board @ BSP 1pt

The Big Board - currently 11/43.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has been ducked by plenty of firms, and there's surely only so short this filly can get in today's company, so it's best to play a BSP.

The four-year-old bounced back to form and hit the line very hard at Ascot last time when touched off by a subsequent winner. However, that run only scratches the surface as she looks to return to her best. She needed every yard of the five-furlong distance there, and the hope today is that Oisin Murphy will make plenty of use of her early, knowing how well she gets this five-furlong trip.

Her record when approaching the summer months is strong. She racked up two good victories last year, including in Class 2 company at Ascot, and was narrowly beaten at York by Summerghand in the Constantine Handicap (due to run next week).

Five furlongs is her optimum trip despite having won over six (twice, both at Leicester), and while Oisin Murphy has faltered on her twice before, he can make amends today at a track she has run well at in the past. None of these holds a course victory, and The Big Board's two efforts came over six furlongs back in 2022 and the latest on heavy.

She relishes fast ground and is weighted to go well. I expect her to take care of this opposition. Cases can be made for Myconian, Sarah's Verse, and Woolhampton, while a statistical case can be made for Michaela's Boy. Still, the selection is well-treated and holds a class edge.

I'd be looking for more 7/24.50 come race time.

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14:45 Ripon - Back Maxi Boy @ 20/121.00 0.5pt

I find these 18-20 runner six-furlong races at Class 4 level impossible, but I want to make a small bet here.

I must mention Origintrail 14/115.00, who has become a big cliff horse of mine, and followers of this column will know that she has cost me plenty. Still, it was conclusive last time here that five furlongs was not the trip she wanted. She has a good Ripon record, and her headgear had a positive effect last time. Up to six furlongs in this headgear is the combination she needs, but I have been bitten more than once with this horse, so she doesn't make the bottom section of this column, but I will have a tiny saver on her.

The selection is Maxi Boy 20/121.00 - on the Betfair Sportsbook. He has turned out quickly following his disappointment at Hamilton, but he was beaten just four lengths on unfavoured soft ground, and he raced away from the favoured side of the track, so it's worth upgrading that effort. He had previously been narrowly touched off by today's favourite Ray Vonn at York, and he did much the best of the small group drawn low and lost ground moving into the centre where the action developed. He finished off there very powerfully.

He has had very few tries at sprinting; three of his siblings were effective over five and six furlongs, and he has left the firm impression that this is his trip.

Another interesting angle with him is the return of the cheekpieces that saw him put in RPRs of 86 and 89 at Newmarket and Chelmsford last year over seven furlongs. The headgear and this trip combined could see him get over the line.

He is drawn lowest of all in stall one, which gives his jockey no choice but to race on the far side of the track, and that has been a good place to be here over the years. He appeals at 20/121.00 or bigger.

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15:00 Newbury - No Bet

This is more of a punting race than a tipping one, as I plan to have a little spread. I don't like the top of this market and prefer Silver Samurai 10/111.00 and Spangled Mac 12/113.00. The cases for the pair are not complex.

The latter won this race last year and looks to have been crying out to go back to seven furlongs, and this looks to have been the plan. The former loves fast ground and seven furlongs and holds a good Newbury record.

Of the younger horses, perhaps Starlore has a bigger effort in him, but he has been weak at the finish in many races, so he is hard to get behind.

Zabriskie Point has a big win in him when he puts it all together.

I didn't have a strong enough opinion to place one in the column.

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15:20 Ripon - No Bet

Dare To Hope 8/19.00 is a four-year-old on the up, and he is worth upgrading his last two performances. His latest run was an excellent effort in the Stewards Cup from the rear and wrong side of the track. He came widest of all and circled runners following a blocked run. He had an impossible task there, but it was an eye-catching effort.

He ran a blinder at York before that, but so did Rock Opera 16/117.00, who may take in this engagement following another excellent run in the Racing League two days ago. The pair are closely matched.

The older horses also have every chance. Summerghand will likely trade at a price bigger than his SP for those looking to back him - do it in-running.

Kitai holds claims on the speed figure I held for her at Pontefract last year and remains well handicapped, but one suspects Goodwood was the time to be on her.

It's devilishly difficult. Best of luck if you feel you have the winner--please let me know!

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15:35 Newbury - Back Tiber Flow @ 9/25.50 2pt

The final race of the day is the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, and as a friend pointed out, perhaps it should be downgraded to a Group 3 and switched with the earlier race on the card. Thanks to some outstanding race planning, this race has seen a depleted field, no surprise when you put it between the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood and City Of York next week--dumb, dumb.

Still, it's an interesting field. You must start with English Oak.

There are a couple of ways to look at this Ed Walker horse. He is an improving horse who should be forgiven for his Goodwood run, or he is a handicapper now forced up in grade because of his Royal Ascot win.

Perhaps it's premature to make any conclusions just yet, but the fact that his trainer offered to calm people over the hype this horse got following Ascot hints that he is not quite the Group 2 horse he will need to be to land this.

Before final declarations, English Oak was around 5/16.00 and is now what I call a default favourite thanks to the defection of Lake Forest and Poet Master - both opt for York next week.

Still, this is a big prize to let go of, which makes me look to Tiber Flow - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

William Haggas knew he had the ante-post favourite for this contest, and Lake Forest looked a good fit for this. However, it might be that this has been Tiber Flow's target since winning at Haydock. Haggas likes to target races, and it's clear that they have picked their moments with this horse.

When Tiber Flow ran in this race behind Jumby in 2022, it looked like a prep run for a subsequent run at Ascot, where he was beaten just three lengths by Rohaan in the Group 3 Bengough Stakes.

Following a conditions race on his second start at Haydock, Haggas then targeted Newcastle's Group 3 Chipchase Stakes.

This term, he had him ready for the Haydock Group 3, where he readily cared for subsequent Listed winners Point Lynas and Quinault and today's rivals Popmaster, Witch Hunter, and Jumby.

I wonder if Goodwood was a means to an end, arriving there after a 52-day break and giving him a prep spin for this Group 2 assignment. After all, he did win the Listed Carnarvon Stakes here earlier in his career, and he is unexposed at seven furlongs with form figures reading 61411. He may just offer good value in this contest.

Kikkuli is very interesting, but he looks weak at the finish of his races, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him caught before the line. Many others consider this an afterthought.

Tiber Flow looks like the correct bet and a good value one at 5/23.50 or bigger.

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