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Two selections on the opening day of the Ayr meeting
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York sectionals point to Oviedo being better than the bare result
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Look to Cheshire Dancer to get a deserved victory
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This race can go to Oviedo - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - for who the drying weather at Ayr will suit, and he gave the firm impression at York that he is ready to land a valuable handicap this season.
It took three runs following a gelding operation, but he put in his best effort of the year last time despite his down-the-field finish at York in the Finale Handicap. He was left poorly positioned following his rider's attempts to keep a lid on him in the early part of the race, but he was bashed around and shuffled back on the first turn as runners jostled for position. Still, considering the race favoured those ridden prominently, he did remarkably well during the mid-part of the race. He sluiced through the field effortlessly before fading inside the final furlong.
Ultimately, he made his challenge too early in the home straight. However, when doing so, he clocked the fastest furlong of any horse at any stage in the race. His seventh and eighth furlongs were back-to-back, the quickest of any horse during the race. He did this rapid headway work from a poor position in the centre of the track, away from the unfavoured rail.
That could quickly point to him being favoured by going back to 1m, but this Ayr track is fairly sharp, and they can get stacked up coming into the home straight, which favours a burst of speed. This should suit Oviedo if Callum Rodriguez can time his challenge correctly and use his turn of foot at the correct time, and from a good draw in stall five, he should hold the ideal position to strike.
Adding the tongue tie and visor today is only positive for enhancing his chances, and this is less taxing than York last time. He appeals greatly with the speed figure the angle and masked by his last time out finishing position. Back the selection at 11/43.75 or bigger.
The following Class 4 Fillies' Handicap sees a good chance for Cheshire Dancer - 10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook - to return to the winner's enclosure, having gone hammer and tongs with a rapid improver at Sandown last time, when unfavourably positioned of the two.
That effort suggested the Hugo Palmer horse was well ahead of the handicapper, which would concur with her RPR of 88.
She has been given a three-pound rise, but I suspect the handicapper underestimated the winner's rate of progression, and they finished miles clear of the third.
The selection had shaped well at Goodwood before that in Class 3 company when suffering a falsely run race. She finished with running in the same grade at Ascot over the straight mile when finishing fourth, and the third and fifth have won good, strong handicaps since.
She returns to a less taxing Class 4 contest with an unexposed profile over these ten furlongs. She is also unexposed on the turf following just six outings on grass, finishing in the first three 50% of the time. I expect her to care for these comfortably. Yorkshire Lady loves it here at Ayr and she can rate the chief threat.
5/23.50 or bigger is acceptable for the selection.
16:15 Ayr - Back Cheshire Dancer