Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/2 Back Johnny to show his class in Grade 1 Challow feature

Daryl Carter
Daryl Carter has four bets on Saturday at Newbury

Daryl Carter has four bets on the final Saturday of the year, and he says his NAP is very underestimated in Newbury's feature race, the Challow Hurdle...

  • NAP 9/25.50 Jonjo's Johnny strongly fancied for the Challow assignment

  • Martator 7/42.75 has the easiest assignment to date

  • Pauling's Bowtogreatness 13/27.50 can relish a drop in grade on return

13:15 Newbury - Back Martator @ 7/42.75 2pt

Martator - 7/42.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook - bumped into a very well-handicapped horse over course and distance last time, but it was still a big step forward from his Plumpton run behind another subsequent winner in the Brave Kingdom.

He looks to be getting his act together now, and with his recent run having recorded a fair time figure, connections look to have found a good opportunity if this doesn't come too soon.

The cheek-pieces worn in France and here last time are removed, but he has run as well without them, and this looks like a better chance of opening his account over fences in Britain than his previous three outings.

He appeals 11/102.11 or bigger.

13:15 Newbury - Back Martator @ 7/42.75

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13:50 Newbury - Back Steal A March @ 7/24.50 1pt

Get A Tonic is very much respected in a bid to double up at this venue. Still, the vote goes to the returning Steal A March - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - on the back of his stable's confidence when due to run in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival earlier this year.

He was put away in a bid to go well at Cheltenham but lost his action in his preparation two weeks before, so it's unlikely that he has had such an absence as the 369 days suggest to overcome.

I was at Wincanton the day he won his Pertemps Qualifier, and all down the home straight, James Bowen was eager to ride hands and heels until asking for maximum pressure after the final flight.

I am not convinced he is a dour three miler, and coming back to this trip for this seasonal return should see him in a good light. The eight-year-old was the subject of a Nicky Henderson frustrating interview following his setback, suggesting connections think they have a well-handicapped horse on their hands for the King.

He has done little wrong in his short career to date, and he has a good record from off a break. It's a positive to see the headgear on for this first start back, and he has found a winnable opportunity.

Get A Tonic is feared most; however, she is priced correctly off this career-high rating. Rambo T needs to jump better, but he did clock a good number at Cheltenham before his non-staying effort over 3m here last time.

The 7/24.50 or bigger is fair but no shorter.

13:50 Newbury - Back Steal A March @ 7/24.50

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14:25 Newbury - Back Bowtogreatness @ 13/27.50 1.5pt

It is a tricky race where cases can be made for a few, but Bowtogreatness - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - indeed has more to offer in this sphere now tackling calmer waters, and with a good record from off a break, he is fancied to land this.

Ben Pauling's youngster ended last season with an excellent second to Midnight River in Aintree's Grade 3 contest when out of the handicap, forcing the winner to fight to the line. Today's race represents much calmer waters than that, and he had previously run in the Cheltenham Plate, had no luck at Warwick and was tried in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown.

Still, he remains unexposed as a staying chaser and recorded close to his best RPR on seasonal return at Exeter last term when short-headed for second behind a twice subsequent winner in Black Gerry, who reached a rating of 140 from the 128 he was that day.

The drying ground between the time of writing on Thursday and race time is a positive, and he has been underestimated because he hasn't had a run under his belt. However, I see that as a positive given he was yet to play his hand in a Maiden Hurdle when falling at Ffos Las in 2021 and his effort at Exeter last year.

The drop in grade and the promise he offers over this trip can be enough to see him score.

He is fancied ahead of Surrey Quest, who stays all day but is sometimes let down by his jumping. I see Bowtogreatness as a level above today's rivals, and he will be plying his trade in all the big handicaps later this year.

I'd happily back at 5/16.00 or bigger.

14:25 Newbury - Back Bowtogreatness @ 13/27.50

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15:00 Newbury - Back Johnnywho @ 9/25.50 2.5pt win (NAP)

This is a deep renewal of the Challow Novices' Hurdle, but Johnnywho - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is readily fancied to confirm himself as one of Britain's top Novice Hurdlers.

Jonjo O'Neill's runner has been saved for this, having bolted up effortlessly at Carlisle over Moon D'Orange, who pushed the useful Shanagh Bob close at Cheltenham when third in a Grade 2 next time. The selection barely came off the bridle to deal with that rival, and the race recorded a very good comparative time figure.

I now have Johnnywho doing two excellent speed figures, and he hasn't even been asked under pressure, having won both on the bridle. That marks him down as an excellent prospect. At the same time, his Point to Point form when having last year's Challow Hurdle winner Hermes Allen 19 lengths behind and the runner-up boosting the form by beating the useful Crebilly (139) next time out, indeed confirms him as smart and the form horse in the race.

His form has serious substance when looked at closely and matches the visual impression with strong time figures.

Willmount looked good on debut, but it was a race that turned into a dash from three out. He is also respected on his Point to Point form and is the biggest threat ahead of Captain Teague. There is unlikely to be any hiding place here with this set to be run at a proper test - one that will suit Johnnywho, who could easily turn into the best of the British for the Ballymore or Albert Bartlett.

He rates the day's best bet, and I would make him more of a 11/43.75 chance, so any bigger is good value.

15:00 Newbury - Back Johnnywho @ 9/25.50

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Read Cheltenham Focus Week 7 here.

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update December 31st

Advised Stakes = +120.37pts ROI 10.18%

BSP = +114.0pts ROI +9.64%


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