Daryl Carter's Tips: 8/1 Give the bookies Doom and gloom on Sunday at Doncaster

• Shartash looks great value in Paris

• Germanic holds excellent claims on his handicap debut in headgear

• Look to Haggas again for Doom down in grade at Doncaster

• *Added selection at 19:45 on Saturday

12.23 Longchamp - Back Shartash @ 7/18.00 1pt

It's not just in Ireland and England where there is outstanding racing on Sunday, but Paris as well, and Shartash - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - makes considerable appeal now that he is back on a softer surface.

He has been a model of consistency this season, but he hasn't had his ground or his ideal trip in his last three starts, and despite running over an inadequate six furlongs, he has held his form very well.

The four-year-old has found the ground too quick this season, and he got away with it at Haydock when landing a strong Listed event in May on his last outing over today's seven-furlong distance. That took his record over seven furlongs to two wins from two starts outside of Group 1 company in his career, but his defeats in the Group 1 National Stakes to Al Riffa and Belbek in the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere as a two-year-old are excellent pieces of form.

Shartash's exaggerated knee action means a return to the soft ground for the first time since his reappearance when he hacked up at Thirsk over Ramazan and Holloway Boy by an eased down four lengths, along with today's trip is an ideal combination.

He is the choice of Wathnan jockey James Doyle over Dark Trooper, who steps back up to seven furlongs - a trip which had previously seen him vulnerable at the finish - and in a wide-open race, he looks good value to land this. Any 9/25.50 or bigger is acceptable.

14:40 Doncaster - Back Germanic @ 9/25.50 1.5pt

This is a tricky opening Sunday contest at Doncaster. The favourite Ten Pounds is improving and is well respected, with the size and scope to prove better than a handicapper. However, he did win a race at Newcastle last time in which he was well positioned, and anything behind had zero chance given the farcical early gallop. Still, that may have masked his ability, and I don't want to underestimate him.

Germanic - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has multiple pieces of evidence that tie in with Ten Pounds to suggest they are closely matched.

They met on debut at Newbury. Ten pounds finished ahead of him, but Germanic travelled very well through the race while the former was off the bridle, and he had no clear crack at that contest. They also ran on the same card at Newcastle when Germanic recorded a fractionally better time carrying three pounds more. Today, he gets four pounds from the Harry Charlton horse, meaning he is technically seven pounds better off. That's a very loose and unreliable way to compare the two, but there is a good chance that our selection doesn't have as much to find with the market leader as the betting suggests.

William Haggas has an excellent record when applying headgear to handicap debutants (The Reverend a recent example last week), and Germanic looked just the type to appreciate it at Thirsk 60 days ago when attempting to defy a penalty in a race that has worked out well.

Furthermore, today's slower ground will suit him, and Ten Pounds and Fifty Nifty, who provide the biggest threats, must prove that. The selection is open to further improvement and has ideal conditions from a fair opening handicap rating.

He looks worth chancing at 4/15.00 or bigger.

15:15 Doncaster - Back Doom @ 8/19.00 2pt (NAP)

This is wide open if you consider the three-year-old heading this market went off at 16/117.00 for a Royal Ascot Handicap on her penultimate start and is now 11/43.75 for a Listed contest. I am writing this with the notion that Vetiver takes in her engagement in the Park Stakes on Saturday - if not, then she will be considered as an added cover selection - and that leaves William Haggas' Doom - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - as the standout bet in this race.

The four-year-old will have no trouble getting back on an easier surface, and a repeat of any of her three runs before her latest Sandown ninth will be good enough to land this. Her seasonal return at the Curragh, when she shaped as she would improve for the run, is a good piece of form, and her Ascot third to Running Lion is well above today's pay grade.
Following Ascot a second time when finding only Friendly Soul (who would be an odds-on chance in this) too good is another string to her form bow.

The positive is returning to Doncaster and an easier surface. She ran the 2023 Epsom Oaks winner Soul Sister within a head on her only visit at this track, and her record with ease in the ground is very encouraging to think she could land this race. She gets a confident vote to score from a good draw under Cieren Fallon.

Plenty of these want to be held up, but the selection is typically ridden prominently, and that is always handy at Doncaster, and I expect an aggressive ride down in the trip and grade. She appeals at 10/34.33 or bigger.

15:35 Curragh - Back Believing @ 5/23.50 1.5pt

The draw bias at York was there for all to see, and Believing - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was undoubtedly unfortunate. Her finishing effort to chase Bradsell home was outstanding, and she is a winner in waiting at this level. Her finishing effort wasn't just visually eye-catching but good on the clock. She ran the final furlong almost half a second quicker than Bradsell, and her other sectionals confirm she was unfavoured by her racing position.

I expected her to be shorter than the Nunthorpe winner on that performance, particularly returning to the track that saw her in good effect in July. I am not claiming to know any other angle than the well-advertised draw bias at York, but there are plenty in here running over the wrong trip, and the more you look through this race, the more appealing the George Boughey runner becomes.

Possibly, her offering of 5/23.50 is of no value, with the draw angle at York all but evaporated as the odds compilers factor that into their pricing. However, I expect her to be ridden more forward than York, just like she was under Ryan Moore at the Curragh three starts back.

With no other angle bar the disadvantaged draw at York last time, one must come up with a reason to think she is a value bet at her current odds. Typically, that comes through a speed figure angle or something the traders have missed However, this time, it's because Bradsell takes up too much of the market, and I don't believe he will give the same running as he did at York based on his past performances at this venue - including when well beat in this race last year.

Bradsell was disappointing here last year, and his mishap in the Phoenix Stakes in 2022 may have left a mark mentally, so I don't think he is the 9/43.25 chance he might be if this were back at York.

I struggled to find any other real danger to Believing, and I must trust my prices, so while I slightly hesitated with this selection, she made the column at the final hour. Any 15/82.88 or bigger is acceptable.

16:15 Doncaster - Back Flaming Rib @ 12/113.00 1pt

This can go the way of Flaming Rib - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who offered plenty of encouragement at Chester last time to think a return to form may be imminent. The five-year-old hadn't won since Chester in 2022 when he raced over the minimum distance, but he has been in the grips of the handicapper for a long time (rated as high as 112) and is now on a more attractive mark in handicaps.

He is a very capable sprinter on his day, and he didn't get the chance to show what he could do at Chester, having been denied a clear run once changing his legs and looking to go again towards the finish. I felt Jason Hart was being easy on him, perhaps with a sighter at a more significant prize. His latest run was in a Class 3 12k handicap, and today he races for £36k, and he looks to be coming into form at the right time for a crack at this.

Furthermore, this extra half furlong, on the evidence of last time and his victories over this trip in the past, offers an avenue for improvement. After all, his sire Ribchester improved significantly for moving up in trip, and while it is a little late in the day for the five-year-old, he has the back-class to win this.

Tacarib Bay is the safer and more obvious play that followers may want to cover in this race. However, a return to form for Flaming Rib, who won at Doncaster on his only visit and gets first-time blinkers (it looked like some headgear would work), offers good value at 10/111.00 or more.

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