Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 8/1 Johnson can relish Newbury's stamina test

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has one Friday bet.

Daryl Carter has one bet on Friday at Newbury and likes the look of a progressive staying handicapper...

  • Just one bet for Daryl on a day full of racing but low on betting opportunities. Always gamble responsibly.

  • Robert Johnson can improve for eye-catching Ponte return

  • Ayr card assessed too

There's lots of racing on Friday, and the betting opportunities are endless, but there was very little I wanted to back with hard cash.

At this time of year, it can be tempting to bet plenty with the flat and jumps scenes merging, but it can be wise to take stock and pause for a moment and ask yourself, is this a bet, or am I in fear of missing out?

I started with the Ayr card, and the opening contest at 13:20 looked interesting. The closest I came to a bet in this was Next Left 9/110.00 for Dan Skelton, a horse formerly with Gary Moore and certainly trained with handicaps in mind. He went into my tracker in 2021 when third to Ardhill at Ascot, staying on from off the pace--for some reason, I remember that race vividly.

That was over three miles, though, and either I have him entirely wrong, or this 2m trip is too short. But it begs the question of why he should be brought to Scotland. The answer is either he is very well, or the trainer is throwing everything and anything at these races. Either way, it left too much chance to part with my cash but got me overthinking.

The 13:50 at Ayr sees Mr Crawford happy to throw away Lily Du Berlais' very attractive handicap rating of 116 by choosing to run in a Maiden instead of the handicap she entered on this card. Perhaps this is just a good opportunity for her to score, get some prize money, and tick the box of winning over hurdles for breeding purposes. Still, I hoped to get much bigger than 11/82.38 when backing her, so I gave it a miss.

At 14:20 at Ayr, Mt Fugi Park, Castle Rushen and Whistle Stop Tour all had me taking a deep dive into the race, but I came up with zilch. Mt Fugi Park will surely come good over fences, but he looks awkward and slow for hurdles, so he is one for the notebook for next season. His mark will be left behind in due course, no doubt.

I got my head in a spin with the 14:50 at Ayr. I kicked myself for not tipping Jet Plane nine days ago, but I wouldn't say I like the quick turnaround. Outlaw Peter is no pushover, and Nells Son and Praire Wolf all have some claim, so it's no easy task he holds. It's worth pointing out that you should be prepared to pay some tax if you want to back a Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls or Willie Mullins horse in the next ten days.

Their fight for the Trainer Championship will elevate racing and cause good value ripple effects if you're betting outside that trio.

That was an angle I hoped to exploit at 15:20, where Doddiethegreat almost became a bet until I saw 11/43.75 offered up, which has quickly gone into 2/13.00. You need to forgive his run at Cheltenham, and as you know by now, I do not have "stable form" as an excuse.

He is a fragile horse, and in November, connections said the Scottish Champion Hurdle was the aim, so I am a bit miffed as to why he is in this contest and not that. Perhaps all is well, but the price is not right to find out. Hugos New Horse could go well here. He did a good speed figure in my book on this card last year, and the wind operation and cheek-pieces could help him significantly. It's all ifs and buts, as you can tell though.

Heading over to Newbury.

Having just witnessed today's NAP fall out of the back of the TV, the thought of another big-field handicap at 14:12 made me shake in my boots, and I've decided it's too early in the season for me to get stuck into these. As you can imagine, lots have claims.

I did find one small bet on the day...

15:45 Newbury - Back Robert Johnson @ 8/19.00 0.5pt e/w

Metier was offered up as a strong selection when due to participate in the Musselburgh Queens Cup, and it would be a little gutting should he score today. However, he must give some progressive rivals weight, and the market has priced him very defensively.

The one who appeals at the prices is Robert Johnson - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who is entitled to strip fitter for his seasonal return third at Pontefract 17 days ago, having shaped in excellent form but a stride short of full fitness.

He was highly progressive last season, with his most eye-catching run coming on his penultimate start at Goodwood when, despite being out of the handicap, he finished very strongly from off an ordinary gallop to finish second. He handles any ground, and the more this turns into a stamina test, the better for him, having proven his effectiveness over further. There's plenty of pace with Not So Sleepy, Yorkindness, and Torcello in here, which should help with a true gallop.

The selection may hold a fitness edge on fellow progressive favourite Grand Providence, who is respected based on her rating of 90, but it is unknown how she will fair on seasonal return.

I am yet to be convinced Not So Sleepy stays this trip, and Spartan Army looks high enough in the handicap. There are ground concerns around Educator and L'Astronome, and Prince Alex may need this if history is a good indicator. This leaves the selection a good each-way alternative to the two heading the betting. Any 6/17.00 or bigger appeals.

15:45 Newbury - Back Robert Johnson @ e/w 8/19.00

Bet now

Now read the latest from Paul Nicholls as he battles for the Trainers' Championship

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2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 1st

2024 P/L = +62.87 ROI 24.51%

BSP P/L = +51.2 ROI 19.94%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +8


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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