Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 8/1 Back Cobden to take flight at Southwell

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has three Tuesday selections.

Daryl Carter has three Tuesday selections, looks to Epsom on the flat for two and to Southwell for his NAP...

  • Chance Frost to strike gold at Epsom

  • Moore and Williams can combine with Silent Film

  • Clear The Runway looks very well treated under Harry Cobden

15:20 Epsom - Back Silent Film @ 4/15.00 1pt

Qitaal may be miles ahead of the handicapper in due course, but this is a tricky track, and the tried and tested route usually pays, so Silent Film - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - gets the vote.

Not only has Ian Williams' Silent Film taken to this track well in the past, but the son of New Approach is open to further improvement now tackling this new trip. This extra distance could unlock further progress, as evidenced by a handful of his runs last term, and he found the 1m too sharp when staying on at the death here as a Novice. The move to a stiffer test at Sandown following that effort back in 2021 saw him to good effect, so this trip with a downhill finish should prove no issue at all.

He also has the bonus of Ryan Moore in the saddle and can get the better of the favourite. Ziggy is well treated but may find this test on the sharp side, returning from a long absence. Felix and Dual Identity are both worth a second look.

Back the selection at 3/14.00 or bigger.

15:20 Epsom - Back Silent Film @ 4/15.00

Bet Here

15:55 Epsom - Back Saratoga Gold @ 20/121.00 0.5pt e/w

This is a good race for the time of year, and Champagne Piaff at the top of the market is the blindly obvious choice to land this. I have little doubt he is well handicapped off his current rating of 89, and he put in a good shift on return from a long absence at Bath on unsuitable heavy ground, staying on into third behind a very well-treated rival. This move-up in trip and return to a sounder surface is a big positive for his chance if he can avoid the bounce factor.

Another positive for him is that he won here before his 910-day absence, and he scored the second time off a break in two previous seasons.

However, his victory here saw a big pace collapse, and he looked very uncomfortable on the track. He had been ridden away from the start, failed to handle the downhill run and hung left down the home straight. He was flattered, and the second and third have failed to win since.

I highlighted Champagne Piaff as a horse to keep onside following his Bath run. Still, I expected a more relaxed turnaround, and I am surprised they wanted to return to this track, having looked to get away with things on his only visit.

This is a better race than that one, so I will pass over him and allow him to take up a chunk of this market while also recognising he is a well-treated runner I would be backing on a flat track.

With this venue being tricky to handle, the value may lie with Saratoga Gold--20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook--who is 2-2 at this venue and has a promising record when fresh.

He left the impression last season that he wasn't done with, notably when demolishing some good rivals off this mark of 89 at Kempton on the AW. His form tailed off towards the backend of the season when he was tried over staying distances, but a change of scenery, moving to Kevin Frost and arriving fresh back at his optimum trip at this course, could be the answer.

Frost has decided to remove the headgear worn on his last 12 runs, but he has done plenty of winning without it, including when fresh. Today, he has optimal conditions to put in a fair show and any 9/110.00 or bigger appeals.

15:55 Epsom - Back Saratoga Gold @ 20/121.00

Bet Here

16:40 Southwell - Back Clear The Runway 8/19.00 1.5pt (NAP)

Clear The Runway - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has the potential to be very well handicapped. While it's a bit of guesswork as to how he will fair after a 248-day absence, the presence of Harry Cobden gives confidence that the camp would be hopeful of his chances.

Cobden is at Southwell for just two rides on Tuesday, and it may not be a coincidence that one of them is in a race sponsored by his online column.

That's not the reason to back him, but his course form is. He has a 3-3 record at this venue (two over fences and one hurdle) and has proven to go well fresh.

Clear The Runway reached a rating of 142 over fences (went off favourite off that mark in Cheltenham's October meeting in 2022) and is currently rated 135, but today runs off of a rating of 115 in this hurdles sphere, having been seen to no good effect when last seen off of ratings of 135, 130, 125 and 120 in four runs. Still, to come down the weight of 20lbs in four runs seems overly generous by the BHA handicapper, and if, after a break, connections had him back to anywhere near his form in 2022, he will have to be going close in this contest.

It does seem a little strange that connections ran him over three miles twice, having never run at that trip in his career, and in the tongue-tie when they had explicitly said the removal of that headgear was what saw him turn a corner, and on soft ground when they had previously stated that good to soft is as bad as he would want the ground. That makes me suspect of their intentions at that time.

He has optimal ground conditions today and now returns to the scene of three victories with a combined winning distance of 29 lengths. If he is primed for this return, he should be winning this; at the same time, if he is not, then he is one to follow through the summer. Back him at 8/19.00 or bigger.

The biggest danger could come from Nothin To Ask, who has a similar profile to the selection and is possibly worth a saver. It takes a small leap of faith to back him, but he has done some good work when fresh, and his form figures on genuine good ground read 2113. He is lightly after just 16 career outings, and the wind surgery could prompt an improved performance.

16:40 Southwell - Back Clear The Runway @ 8/19.00

Bet Here

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2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 1st

2024 P/L = +62.87 ROI 24.51%

BSP P/L = +51.2 ROI 19.94%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +8


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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