Daryl Carter's Tips: 8/1 Aspire Tower to rise above Punchestown rivals

• One selection in Ireland to finish the year

• Racheal can add to her Serial Winners fund

• Fully updated and in-depth P/L review

14:15 Punchestown - Back Aspire Tower @ 8/19.00 0.5pt

It's worth giving another chance to Aspire Tower - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who shaped with plenty of promise over 3m on his return from a two-year absence at Thurles before being entitled to tire in the closing stages.

That was a reasonable effort on his first attempt beyond 2m, and he traded at a low of 2.3 in the race before faltering for fitness. He was far from disgraced over fences behind the smart Il Etait Temps last time when beaten nine lengths, and connections have rightly decided to save his Novice status over fences for next season.

Given the impression he left on return from an absence, it may pay to give him another chance in a race that lacks any standout performer now dropping back to a more suitable distance. Aspire Tower returns to Punchestown, where he was an excellent winner as a Novice, and this is the first time since landing a Grade 2 at Down Royal in 2020 that he has had a winnable opportunity, having competed in Grade 1 company before his setback.

He offers some value in this race, considering Sir Gerhard has been poor at this venue on all three visits, while Ashdale Bob has typically needed his seasonal return and is over a trip shy of his best. It's tough to make a strong case for any of the others, and this could be a good placing by Henry De Bromhead.

Back the selection at 4/15.00 or bigger.

Daryl's full-year in-depth P/L report

Daily column history

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI
2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI
*2023 P/L = +113.13 ROI 8.9% +99.9pts BSP 7.68% ROI

Antepost Cheltenham Focus 2022-23
Staked 29pts
Returned 68pts
P/L = +39pts

Other short-term ante-post -5pts

Total ante-post 2023 P/L = +34pts

Total 2023 P/L Jan 1st to December 31st = +147.13pts

Year broken down by month to advised prices

Jan = -1
ROI = -1.76%

Feb = +45
ROI = +50.11%

March = +41.37
ROI =+35.36%

April = +31.16
ROI = +21.49%

May = -19
ROI = -14.14%

June = -22.9
ROI = -22%

July = -7.8
ROI -7.1%

Aug = +25.67
ROI = +19.90%

Sept = -18.65
ROI = -22%

Oct = +53.18
ROI = +58.13%

NOV = -2.86
ROI = -3.93%

DEC = -7.2
ROI = -8.1%

Monthly Breakdown to BSP

Jan = +26.5
ROI = +25%

Feb = +32.2
ROI =+35.8%

March = +42.7
ROI = +36.4%

April = +63.7
ROI = +43.9%

May = -24.9
ROI = -18%

June = -27.7
ROI = -27.01%

July = -12.3
ROI = -11.21%

Aug = +12.1
ROI = +9.38%

Sept = -32
ROI = -37.4%

Oct = +36.4
ROI = +39.81%

NOV = -0.7
ROI = -0.93%

DEC = -14.2
ROI = -16%

WIN BETS

Advised = +30.3pts ROI 2.98%
BSP = +47.4pts ROI 4.7%

E/W BETS

Advised = +83.1pts ROI 31.60%
BSP = +52.5pts ROI 19.96%

By points staked

0.5pt win = 0 ROI 0%
1pt win = -41.8 ROI -8.46%
1.5pt win = -5.98 ROI -4.9%
2pt win = +31.02 ROI +11.83%
2.5pt win = -0.37 ROI -0.79%
3pt win = +24 ROI +53.33%
3.5pt win = -3.5 ROI -100%
4pt win = +15.5 ROI +77.5%
5pt win = +11.23 ROI +225%

0.5pt e/w = +11.35 ROI +15.99%
1pt e/w = +0.9 ROI +0.58%
1.5pt e/w = +66.45 ROI +221.50%
2pt e/w = +4.4 ROI +55%

By day

MON = +5.75 ROI +4.79%
TUES = +10.305 ROI + 7.66%
WEDS = +4.68 ROI +3.01%
THURS = -8.5 ROI -4.86%
FRI = +21.53 ROI +9.99%
SAT = +100.17 ROI +28.83%
SUN = -20.77 ROI -17.03%

By code

AW = +1.48 ROI +0.83%
CHASE = +69.82 ROI +27.17%
HURDLE = +4.59 ROI +2.15%
TURF + 42.47 ROI 6.93%

2023 Summary

It's been a tough year but another profitable one. The positive is that this is the third consecutive year over the 100-point mark, the minimum I require from myself. The ROI, more importantly, is steady, but I would like to see 2024 hitting towards the 12-15% mark. So improvement is needed.

To do this, less is more on a Sunday. Sundays over the last two years have not worked despite being the day with the least number of points staked. That will continue to drop into 2024.

One-point win bets have cost this column too much this year at -40.9 and only yield an ROI of 1.23% in the last two years. There will be more 0.5pt win bets in place of these, so expect to see more half-point stakes, which should theoretically reduce the losses on a bad run.

Saturday's have been our best day of the week.

Saturdays only in 2023 returned 100.17pts, ROI 28.83%.

Saturdays in 2022 returned 91.85pts ROI of 21.64%, giving a two-year Saturday return of +192.02pts ROI of 24.87%.

If you had backed this column every Saturday since joining Betfair in July, you would have made 74.52 pts, a 43% ROI for Saturday punters.

Regarding the price bracket, in 2024, I want to steer clear of anything under 3/14.00 unless it is an exceptional value, and in that case, it should be a stronger point-staked bet.

Our ROI this year for horses priced at Evens - 2/13.00 is 1.81%, but over the last two years, it's -7%. So, it's not a price range I want to make a habit of being in - particularly compared to the 10%, 16% and 21% ROI in the bigger brackets.

I don't want to change too much, but this will provide a further edge in 2024.

Here's to a profitable 2024, and thanks as always for following.

Read Racheal Blackmore's thoughts on Bob Olinger for the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham.