Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 7/1 Oaks play but Hannon duo rate Friday's best bets

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter is hoping Fairy can fly in Epsom Oaks.

Daryl Carter has six Friday bets, including in the Epsom Oaks, but looks to Richard Hannon to strike with a strong NAP at Doncaster this evening...

  • Hannon improver can land the odds on Friday at Doncaster

  • Back Forest Fairy to fly home in the Epsom Oaks

  • Speeding Bullet is well-handicapped and can't be ignored


Ryan Moore Superboost

Ylang Ylang is a strong favourite to win the Epsom Oaks at 16:30 for Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore, and the Betfair Sportsbook have boosted her price to finish in the top three from 1/31.33 to 1/12.00. Just click on the bet banner below to go straight to the pre-loaded bet slip.


14:00 Epsom - Back Teej A @ 11/26.50 1pt

Teej A - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was entirely taking in her dominant performance at Chester last time, and the last six renewals of this race have gone to last-time-out winners, and she is just one of two that fit the bill on that front.

On her debut at Nottingham over five furlongs, Teej A showed inexperience, racing behind the bridle and displaying some greenness. However, this performance also hinted at her potential for further improvement, and having proven herself on soft ground, she is the percentage call to strike again.

Her Chester victory 22 days ago confirmed her debut impression and was a giant leap forward. She broke well from an inside draw and travelled powerfully. She is worthy of a minor upgrade. Having sat and waited to make her challenge behind the leading duo, she kicked away inside the closing stages, winning with lots to spare at the line.

Two-year-old form at this time of year is unreliable, but although the runner-up Rashabar is bred for further and was worth upgrading, a line through him sees the form relatively strong. He was third to Hawaiian on debut at Newbury, with subsequent winners ahead and behind him, including Tropical Storm (second to The Actor at Newmarket) back in fifth.

The selection was authoritative at Chester and is bred to be speedy, unlike the favourite New Charter, who is all stamina but holds claims on her Newmarket second. The selection's dam had a progressive two-year-old career, improving with each outing, and the Nick Bradley team won this with Oscula in 2021.

She holds strong claims if taking another step forward and 4/15.00 or bigger is acceptable.


15:10 Epsom - Back Hamish @ 13/27.50 1pt

Emily Upjohn has an excellent record here and is very much respected at the top of the market, having met trouble running in the Sheema Classic. She is returning to British soil, and if she can repeat her performance in this race last year, she will take plenty of stopping.

However, there may be reason to take her on at skinny odds. The ground is a defining factor. Emily Upjohn has yet to race on a surface slower than good to soft, and further rain on Thursday morning sees her stride into unknown territory.

There are further reservations about most of these runners. Luxembourg may get the run of this race, but his stamina is yet to be proven over this 1m4f, and he is a tall, leggy type that may not be suited to this venue. At the same time, his recent form has taken a dip, and it's not as far clear as the market suggests of William Haggas' Hamish - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Hamish was 18/119.00 when I flagged him on the podcast as NAP material, but punters have quickly combined two and two with the weather and come up with four. However, given the reservations of those at the head of the market, he is still acceptable at 13/27.50 plus.

On official figures, the Haggas runner only has four pounds to find with the favourite and three with Luxembourg. He has been applying his trade in Group 3 company, but this is a soft Group One should the top of the market underperform.

I couldn't believe Time Lock was put in the betting ahead of him, given that she wants a sound surface and is unsure of taking to the new cheekpieces. Feed The Flame is interesting, coming over from France, but that was a very windy Prix Ganay he finished third in, and whether 1m4f is exactly what he wants is up for debate.

I am happy to play Hamish - the proven soft ground specialist is tough as teak - at 13/27.50 or bigger.


15:45 Epsom - Back Mysterious Love @ 33/134.00 0.5pt e/w

This is a wide-open contest, and with conditions unknown for a handful, an upset could be on the cards. It may pay to take a chance with Mysterious Love - 33/134.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - for David Menuisier, who shaped far better than the bare result at Windsor six days ago and is turned out quickly.

The four-year-old was reigned back at the start at Windsor from a low draw and had to suffer a slowly run affair in which the winner clocked closing sectionals at 112%, suggesting it paid only to be on the pace.

She moved through the race well and had to take a pull at the rear of the field before switching wide to make her challenge, and she finished running left. It was an impossible task against some well-placed, unexposed improvers.

That effort greatly improved her seasonal return at Kempton, and she shaped well in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes in September. The move back to a softer surface is undoubtedly a positive for her, and she may revert to front-running tactics from a low draw in stall four. If you forgive her two efforts in a Listed company in France when well below her best, she is entirely unexposed on a softer surface, and her dam relished it.

Cristian Demuro is an interesting jockey booking. Her trainer doesn't send many to this venue, and 10/22 in the last five years have finished first or second.

She was 50/151.00, but unfortunately, that price went at 10:30 am. I am happy to play at 25/126.00 or bigger.


16:30 Epsom - Back Forest Fairy @ 7/18.00 1pt e/w

I never really warmed to Aidan O'Brien's Ylang Ylang, and although I wouldn't be as negative about her chances as my colleague Kevin Blake, who made a tremendous case to oppose her on the Racing Only Bettor Podcast this week, I don't want to be backing her at skinny odds.

The most convincing argument for her is that this race lacks depth. Forest Fairy--7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook--has perhaps had her Cheshire Oaks performance a little underrated.

There's little doubt that the Chester track was sharp enough for her, and she showed a willing attitude when she had to sit and wait for a run, bursting through a gap to show a tremendous attitude to get up on the line. She didn't have the run of the race on that occasion, and it was her first outing on grass.

Therefore, after just two outings, she has plenty of upside to her profile, and it can be argued that, having had Galileo Dame behind her, she is the form horse over Rubies Are Red and those from the Lingfield Oaks Trial.

She will enjoy this stiffer test of stamina, and the slower ground will also be a positive for this daughter of Waldgeist, who has plenty to recommend her with stamina of no concern.

She can get the better of the Lingfield Oaks Trial fillies who clocked a slow time, and I wouldn't be convinced that Rubies Are Red will handle today's track. I fear Ezeliya the most.

7/18.00 or bigger looks like a fair each-way play with four places on offer.


17:40 Epsom - Back Speeding Bullet @ 16/117.00 1pt e/w (4 places)

Three-year-olds get a hefty 11 lb weight-for-age-allowance in this contest, and King Power hold strong claims with the favourite and Goodwood winner Mission To Moon. Still, it may pay to look to the "second string" in Speeding Bullet - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who looks far better handicapped if ready to strike first time up.

He holds some powerful Novice form, notably his Ffos Las second, which saw him narrowly denied by the unbeaten Going The Distance with useful recent Sandown winner Hand Of God (91) behind. Further evidence that makes him look fairly handicapped off this rating of 81 is when he was narrowly denied by the 99-rated Blue Lemons and Al Shabab Storm (91) at Leicester and his staying on third at Redcar to the useful subsequent scorer Volterra (91) could turn out to be very strong form.

He has now been gelded and was due to start back early this month, but for being a non-runner so, I expect him to be straight for Richard Hannon, who has booked Silvestre De Sousa (former King Power stable jock) for the first time this year.

He made a winning handicap debut at Newmarket when well worth upgrading last year, and today, he is just three pounds higher. Back him at 12/113.00 or bigger.


20:50 Doncaster - Back Great Bedwyn @ 15/82.88 3pt (NAP)

Great Bedwyn - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is a horse I flagged up on the Racing Only Bettor Podcast before he made his seasonal return as one to keep a very close eye on, and I couldn't have been more impressed with his seasonal return at Ascot.

This middle-staying distance four-year-old is firmly on the upgrade for Richard Hannon. He showed enough 20 days ago to think he is, as thought, well ahead of the assessor.

He was held up at the rear of the field and wasn't granted the clearest of passages in the attempt to run down the winner who gained the first run.

Still, he made up significant ground in the closing stages to be beaten just 3/4 of a length and confirmed that he is a winner in waiting.

He improved on his seasonal debut last term to score at Newcastle effortlessly over the now 109-rated Saint George (he may not have been the same horse we see now) before flopping at Newmarket and then catching the eye behind Chesspiece and Land Legend at York. He finished his season with a solid Goodwood victory in a race that worked out well.

He is certainly one to follow, and up just three pounds for his Ascot second allows him to drop in grade into this Class 4 0-85 contest. His one poor effort came the only time soft appeared in the going description, but it also coincides with his only run on the undulations of Newmarket, and with a rounded action, I am happy to forgive that run.

He has been pulled on fast ground following his run at York at Newbury on both occasions (the second says good but was watered to be good), so any dig in the ground should be no issue.

Today's long home straight will give him plenty of time to get into the race from off the gallop. He makes an excellent appeal as the likely winner of this race and is one to keep on the side going forward.

15/82.88 or bigger is acceptable.


Now Read: Daryl Carter's Epsom Derby Day Selections.


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DARYL CARTER'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) June 2ND

2024 P/L = +74.43 ROI 18.10%

BSP P/L = +79.1 ROI 19.34%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +4

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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