Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 6/1, 8/1, and 6/1 best bets for Thursday

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter looks to France on Thursday.

Daryl Carter heads to Deauville on Thursday for two selections and the Racing League at Windsor for one...


15:25 Deauville - Back Almaqam @ 6/17.00 1pt

Ed Walker has been patient with his stable star Almaqam - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - waiting for the correct conditions, and he offers some value over the short-priced William Haggas favourite Economics.

While Economics looked excellent in Dante and is respected, the market has taken that form at face value, and I am not convinced that it was as deep a race as the media have made out. The reaction to his victory certainly plays a part in today's odds-on price tag. The runner-up, Ancient Wisdom, was making his seasonal return on unfavoured quick ground, and connections quickly said following the race that it was a prep run for the Derby and that he would "come on plenty for it".

That horse was bashed out of sight in a weak Derby next time, as was the fifth. Although Ancient Wisdom has since landed a Group 3, it came at Newmarket, where he is unbeaten and only by less than one and a half lengths, having dictated a slowly run race over a horse that saw his last victory on handicap debut off 82 on the AW.

Furthermore, the Dante third has been beaten 12 and 18 lengths in his next two outings, and the sixth was beaten a similar distance by Jayarebe at Ascot.

Economics may be the next best thing, and I am not here to say he isn't. However, based on his achievements, his price is too short for this company to return from 90 days off the track. Bright Picture has plenty of ones by his name, but he beat the same horses and didn't need to improve last time. His form with Calandagon looks good now but I think that horse improved for a sound surface at Ascot and while Bright Picture is respected, he may lack the gears of the British raiders.

Jayarebe clung on at Ascot last time, and I can skip out on him here.

Almaqam gets William Buick in the saddle, and the Ed Walker three-year-old will find this drop in grade much more to his liking than the St James Palace Stakes last time. He was outpaced, and the sharp round mile found him out. Today's race will be far from the speed at which they went there, and the move up in trip is a big positive. His dam won up to 1m4f, and his impressive Heron Stakes win at Sandown, which saw the runner-up narrowly denied in Jersey the next time, gives him every chance.

In the hope that William Buick has Almaqam better positioned than Tom Marquand will on Economics, he could get the first run. This is still an improving horse. 6/17.00 or bigger is acceptable and 4/15.00 is the basement price.


16:35 Deavuille - Back Spiritual @ 8/19.00 1pt

It is surprising to see Spiritual - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - a much bigger price than the first two in the market, considering she has had them both beaten on her last two outings. She is improving with each run, and French racing promises to suit the front-runner.

They don't tend to go hard in France, and Spiritual is sure to be well positioned for the kick-for-home, which may see her again have an advantage on Soprano and Bright Thunder.

For all Kieran Shoemark's faults of late, he has been good on the front end of the pace, and today, he will have a straightforward task in dictating the race and kicking at the correct time. The element of surprise has gone, but she has improved her figures run-by-run this season. She is bred to stay well, and with only two efforts at 1m under her belt, there is more to come.

Bright Thunder is also improving and must be respected, but I would expect Spiritual to outstay her at the death as the Karl Burke horse looks as though she might appreciate going back to seven furlongs - but the typical lack of a stamina test in French races played to her strengths last time.

Soprano will likely be dropped in from a wide draw, and it's tough to see the selection out of the business end, while she has the potential to land this.


19:00 Windsor - Back Racingbreaks Ryder @ 6/17.00 1pt

Connections of Racingbreaks Ryder - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - must be pulling their hair out in frustration, but he proved at Goodwood 15 days ago that he is well up to winning from this mark.

He again caught the eye with a strong finishing effort, having seen plenty of daylight on the outside of the track. Still, his latest effort was the best this season, and he looks ready for this move back up to 1m. Today's race is easier on paper than Goodwood, and given his hold-up style of running this term, stall 13 should be fine.

Furthermore, this track may play to his strengths and allow him to get cover for much of the race.

At Windsor, you either win from the front by dominating, or you have an opportunity to come from off the pace and through runners. He will need luck in the run should they continue to persist with a hold-up ride, but he is a winner in waiting before long, and today looks like a fine opportunity.

He was the only horse that interested me on the Windsor card, and 6/17.00 or bigger is acceptable.


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DARYL CARTER'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) SEPT 1st

2024 P/L = +89.64 ROI 12.73%

BSP P/L = +58.4 ROI 8.29%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +3

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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