-
Simple Star the play at Musselburgh but hold out for the best price
-
Into Battle can relish this ease in grade
-
Felicity has much more to offer yet
Simple Star should have prevailed here 19 days ago, but Paul Mulrennan decided to dart in behind horses on the home turn rather than make his challenge at a crucial time. That's not unusual for this rider who seems to find traffic a lot, but credit to the horse that stayed on powerfully behind one that had been subject to market support.
He is worth another chance to prove he is ahead of the handicapper. He came good at this time last year and recorded a career-best when second in this race to Baez from the same mark. Being in good form is a big part of the battle at this level, and the combination of a good record here with form figures reading 322121 since March last year makes him of firm interest.
He is in good heart, handicapped to go well and arrives in decent form, so he is expected to put in a good show at a track where he thrives.
Furthermore, the move back up in trip for the second time in his career and first since going down a neck in this race last year is an avenue for small improvement.
While Mulrennan got it wrong last time, his record when partnering the horse reads 321, so they get on well. Use BSP and hold out for a bigger price than 5/23.50.
16:05 Musselburgh - Back Simple Star
Into Battle - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is worth forgiving a below-par performance at Goodwood last time, having been unbalanced on the track and unable to get himself organised. Still, that was a deeper race than this one, and his previous narrow third at Sandown, when squeezed out at the line, is stronger form than required to score today.
At Sandown, he confirmed himself ahead of the handicapper, and the runner-up is now 12 lb higher in the handicap, while the winner was unbeaten in three starts before that and is yet to run.
Three starts back, he was contesting one of the strongest three-year-old handicaps when staying on fifth in the London Gold Cup behind King's Gambit, and that form is levels above what he needs to reproduce today as he drops in grade into a Class 4 0-85. The fourth is rated 110, the sixth is 103, and the seventh won a handicap for this column on Saturday from a rating of 90.
His case is bolstered by his victory at this venue on his only try on the AW, and he has been granted the plum draw in stall one to gain a good early position.
There's lots to like about the three-year-old, who has hinted that we have yet to see the best of him. With Tom Marquand taking over in the saddle, he is expected to care for these rivals, who are starting to look exposed.
Baraq is an obvious type to come for money now that he has moved up in trip and is starting out in handicaps for a yard with this as their MO. He is one to follow if putting in a good show today, and there is a case to suggest he is well handicapped considering the calibre of rivals he has bumped into. He will likely make the selection work hard for victory. 7/24.50 or bigger is acceptable.
20:00 Kempton - Back Into Battle
There's no extra credit for originality here, but Felicity - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - had improved with each of her three starts, finishing third to a subsequent scorer at Brighton on her penultimate outing when applied with a first-time tongue-tie before she defied an opening mark of 67 which had looked a little generous on her latest start.
It wasn't straightforward, but she got there in plenty of time following a wide passage, winning with more in her hand than the neck margin implies.
She needed every yard of the trip around Lingfield, and this won't be easy at Kempton, but she is drawn well in stall five under James Doyle, and a four-pound rise for that victory shouldn't be enough to put the breaks on her progression.
This is tough, but she has an exemplary attitude, as many from this yard tend to have. She arrives firmly on the upgrade with loads of handicapping scope, so she gets the vote over War Bride.
3/14.00 is the basement price followers should attempt to be on at.
20:30 Kempton - Back Felicity