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Venetia Williams has a potential graded horse on her hands at Ascot
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Fry's runner primed for a big run in the Betfair Exchange Hurdle at Ascot
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33/134.00 Goshen is the wrong price
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Paisley Park Superboost
Take advantage of the Betfair Sportsbook's Superboost in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot today. You can back Paisley Park to finish in the top four at the boosted price of 6/42.50 (from 4/61.67). Just click on the 'Bet now' tab below.
I am a huge Crambo fan, as you will know from me advising him for the Betfair Exchange Stayers Hurdle at Haydock, but I can't touch him at his current price of 3/14.00. Should he hit 5/16.00, I will have a small bet.
Instead, it makes no sense that Goshen - 33/134.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is such a huge price, considering he is a multiple Grade 2 winner.
I understand he is frustrating, but at such lofty odds (tipped at 66/167.00 on the Podcast), he is very appealing, considering he split Paisley Park and Champ in this race last year and went off an SP of 10/34.33.
The cheek-pieces are removed, and if Niall Houlihan doesn't have a shocker in the early part of the race as he did at Sandown 14 days ago, there's no reason why he can't go well.
He clearly doesn't have the pace for 2m, and the move back up to 3m aligns with his pedigree. He is by Authorized - a sire that has produced multiple staying hurdlers and chasers, including Irish National and Grand National winners I Am Maximus and Tiger Roll.
He is well worth chancing at such big odds against a field priced on potential rather than substance, and he is still only seven with this his second crack at 3m.
Any 25/126.00 or bigger is acceptable.
Victorino - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - tanked through the Sadexo Gold Cup over course and distance 49 days ago, and it's shocking that he only went up four pounds for that victory, given he won with stacks in hand.
He cruised through the race, taking a wide course covering more ground than most, and eased his way to the front under no urgings from his jockey. His superiority was diminished only by his jockey slowing dramatically into the final fence and his mount making a mistake.
His dominance was also masked by what looked like challenges coming from off the pace to track him down, but how he responded to minimal pressure after the final flight suggests he would have never been caught.
I feel his latest Ascot win was under instruction to win by a minimal distance with today's race firmly in the front of their mind for the double-up. After all, his jockey didn't fancy throwing the experienced chaser at the final fence. Connections did the same thing with their only runner to run in both races in 2013 - Houblon Des Obeaux - and won them both.
The falls of the two behind in second and third at the time are a blessing, having obviously been on the handicapper's mind when reassessing the Venetia Williams French recruit because he would have arguably won by a good six length had Deutsch been more aggressive.
Off just four pounds higher and in arguably a softer race, a repeat will surely be enough to see him go close. He is a high-class chaser, and being just a five-year-old, he is open to stacks of improvement for this yard.
He looks like one of the better bets of the entire day, and if there is a graded horse in this race, then it is him. Any 11/43.75 or bigger.
Altobelli - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - clocked an almost identical time to the front-running winner Knickerbocker glory at this venue last time, doing the best of those from off the pace.
The unexposed five-year-old will enjoy soft ground, and he is open to further improvement with that seasonal return under his belt in what was possibly a prep run for this contest.
Harry Fry's youngster clocked an excellent time figure at Carlisle last year when demolishing a field of ten in a Novice Hurdle to suggest he could easily be a mid-140s horse, and his bumper win over Ginny's Destiny on debut means he could be a horse that's well ahead of the handicapper off 132.
The first time tongue-tie last time saw him back to his best, having looked like something was a miss at Aintree in the Grade 1 Novice at the back end of last season, and he is open to plenty of improvement. I expect him to go off close to favourite for this, and I am hopeful of a return to more prominent racing tactics in a race that lacks pace. Any 4/15.00 or bigger appeals.
The biggest danger is whoever makes the running at this venue. That could be the fairly handicapped Faivoir who likes it here.
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