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Both well drawn
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Fast out of the stalls
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Desdemona NAP can get off the mark at Lingfield
Frustratingly, yesterday's two horses at Lingfield finished third and fourth and the horse I was writing up before the prices came out mentioned at the top of the column won. Still, we backed two horses in one race that started the day at 9am with a combined win probability of 25%. Those two horses started the race at off time with a combined win probability of 46.15%.
All you can continue to do is back the correct horses. Hopefully, today, we have one in the bag.
There won't be many in this race sharper than Desdemona - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - out of the gates, and this downhill track will see her very tough to pass if Billy Loughnane has confidence in the filly.
The key to punting at any British track is to find an edge with the venue. Some are obvious, such as Chester's low draws. Lingfield's turf course over the sprint track is no different - be drawn high - yet the market rarely considers it. You should give yourself every chance if you can find something drawn high and likes to be on the pace to grab the golden highway here, and Tom Clover's filly fits that bill from stall eight. A bonus is that she has already run here when second to a brilliant type in Amestris on debut.
Amestris was not disgraced when ninth beaten six lengths at Royal Ascot next time in the Queen Mary when denied a clear passage and had been previously touched off on her debut by the useful 90-rated It Ain't Two.
The selection conceded experience to the winner, Amestris, and the clock backed up her effort.
Desdemona improved next time at Catterick when doing too much too soon on good to soft ground. She was clear at the turn, blitzing her rivals in the first two furlongs before being caught late in the day. Still, her attitude to battle back up the stiff finish was commendable, and she was the horse to take out of the race.
Rather than a stiff five furlongs at Catterick, today is an easy five at Lingfield, and that should play to her strengths, and no one is complaining of Billy Loughnane in the saddle. She is fitted with the first-time tongue-tie to help her finish, and it would be disappointing if she couldn't grab the rail early and notch a victory following the promise of her two outings.
A newcomer, along with fellow front-runner Kinetic Force (also quick away), is drawn immediately inside her, and the latter could prove troublesome. Still, she is receiving plenty of weight from that rival, and the filly can care for him and Nala Star. I Expect money for Kinetic Force and Nala Star, but 11/43.75 or bigger appeals.
Recommended Bet
15:20 Lingfield - Back Desdemona
The other to be interested in on the Lingfield card is Nad Alshiba Green - 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who I expected to open up much shorter than she has. She looked well ahead of the handicapper at Bath last time despite flashing her tail when clear of her rivals. One suspects she hasn't been the easiest to train, but she remains in the same grade under a six-pound penalty and is tough to ignore. Drawn high in stall eight, I expect Tom Marquand to make use of the rail - she has led in the past.
Michael Appleby's filly romped home at Bath last time and is expected to handle this quick turnaround of seven days and notch back-to-back victories. I am happy to play at 11/82.38 or bigger.
15:50 Lingfield - Back Nad Alshiba Green