Daryl Carter's Tips: 25/1 Group 1 Nunthorpe hope is excellent value

• All ITV races at York covered with four selections

• 25/126.00 Azure Blue can outrun huge odds to land the Group 1 Nunthorpe

• Back Shadow Dance to prove he is a Group horse in a handicap

• *Ebt's Gaurd added at 5 am Friday morning

Listen to Day Three York Ebor Festival Racing Only Bettor Tips...

13:50 York - Back Shadow Dance @ 5/16.00 1.5pt

The opening handicap of day three is extremely tough, with many holding valid claims. Still, I can't ignore Shadow Dance - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who won't mind any rain that fell and left the firm impression that he had more to offer with a strong finishing effort at Ripon last time.

His latest effort was a step back in the correct direction following a disappointing run at Royal Ascot on his reappearance. However, that effort is easily forgiven despite his prominent market position. He was drawn in stall 19 and raced at the rear of the field and four wide off the home bend. Still, he travelled like a good horse for much of the race before running on under hand and heels. He had little chance to get involved from off the pace, and only the now Ebor favourite, Epic Poet, made any ground from the rear with the next eight all ridden handily.

Ripon was much improved, well-backed, and ridden more aggressively in a smaller field, but he failed to handle the track once under pressure. He rolled around on the Ripon undulations and hung right into the rail. Still, once Jack Mitchell organised him, he finished with a powerful kick, and now it looks like the time to back him.

Four-year-olds have won all bar one of these in the last ten years, and his form when second in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket to Alsakib was an outstanding effort considering that one is now rated 111 and a Group 3 winner (he lines up in a Group 2 today).

James Doyle takes the ride (can't do the weight on Wafei) but rode him to great effect to win effortlessly at Haydock in September last year.
Wafei is an obvious danger, as are Mr Monaco, Derry Lad, and Grey Cuban. Euchen Glen will have his supporters and Insanity arrives on the upgrade. Shadow Dance holds the potential to be better than a handicapper, and he is my big hope for the day.

Back him at 4/15.00 or bigger.

14:25 York - No Bet

I found this devilishly difficult to pin down to one. Point Lonsdale is a class act, but whether he will stay this trip is another question. Take out his 1m5f Chester victory, and he is 0-5 over further than ten furlongs, but Ballydoyle has a knack for placing horses excellently. I couldn't write him off, but the weak 2/13.00 offer doesn't interest me.

Vauban narrowly holds an edge over Gregory, but both have been below their expected heights. Alsakib is an improver, and he may enjoy this 2m test. He is one of the more tempting options at 8/19.00 for an E/W bet.

Align The Stars is another that breathes fresh air into this division and should be respected. Quickthorn has been out of sorts this term but scored the third time out for the past two seasons, which means this may have been his target all along. Al Nayyir - given a good mention by Kevin Blake on the Racing Only Bettor Podcast at 33/134.00, is interesting in the bare form if he can replicate that for his new yard.

All in all, it was a tricky contest.

15:00 York - No Bet

Camille Pissarro went off favourite for the Coventry Stakes on his penultimate run and was better than the result suggests from the wrong side of the track. He took a good step forward at the Curragh last time when narrowly denied by the outstanding Babouche.

He was worth a small upgrade at the Curragh in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes, having given the winner too much rope and, racing on the unfavoured side of the track and being restrained inside the first furlong. He was stuck on the wing at the rear of the pace while his conqueror switched to the far side immediately following the break. Camille Pissarro ran the final three furlongs quicker than anything else in the race and ran consecutive sub-11-second furlongs through the fourth and fifth to make up ground, but he still finished his race quicker than the winner.

The sectionals suggest that Babouche won the race with an excellent piece of early race-riding, and she has franked the form by beating Whistlejacket next time. The only horse to dip below 11 seconds in any furlong was subsequent Prix Francois Boutin winner Cowardofthecounty.

Still, it is very deep to rely solely on a piece of form in defeat. Shadow of Light could be anything. He was powerful at Newmarket, and that performance looks better and better the more you watch it.

Big MoJo was very good at Goodwood and had his form boosted when the fourth won the Lowther on Thursday. The Strikin Viking, Cadburn and Andesite add an intriguing element.

15:35 York - Back Azure Blue @ 25/126.00 1pt e/w (4 places)

An exceptionally competitive Nunthorpe Stakes and Asfoora is the obvious and correct favourite following an excellent Kings Stand Royal Ascot victory and Goodwood second. She is now six pounds better off with Big Evs, and she can reverse from the Michael Appleby runner who has been dealt stall 14. She sets the standard, and if she stays caught up inside the first furlong, she will go very well, but Goodwood was not an improvement on Ascot. She is priced correctly.

While Asfoora was the visual fast finisher at Goodwood, Believing came home just 0.01 secs slower than her, having been bumped and bashed when making her challenge, and she is improving fast. Again, she can go well here under Ryan Moore but is dealt a high draw in stall 13.

I am happy to take a chance with Azure Blue - 25/126.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was fancied to become a force in the sprinting division last year following her excellent 6f Cipper Stakes victory here last May.

She only ran once following that in the Group 1 July Cup when disappointing at 5/16.00. She was headstrong then and had no cover, but something must have been a miss, considering she was only seen when reappearing with a four-length seventh in the Group 2 Clipper this year.

That run suggested she would improve a good deal, and then the ground went entirely against her at Haydock in the Listed Cecil Frail (described as soft, heavy in places), so she can be forgiven both efforts this term.

She holds an excellent record at the back end of the season, winning four times and finishing second twice from eight starts.

Her latest Ayr run was a big step back in the correct direction when she tried over five furlongs for the first time. She could have done with a stronger pace but clocked excellent splits and rattled home to dead-heat with Beautiful Diamond. The winner was beaten by Believing next time but granted a stronger gallop to aim at - which she will certainly get here - Azure Blue would have been a comfortable winner.

She is drawn in stall six next to Live In The Dream, who can give her a good tow into the race, providing she is not given a hold-up ride (she has been ridden more forward before).

She looks overpriced. She is still only a five-year-old, and she could have much better to come at this trip. She has been kept fresh for this following missing the race last year, having pulled off a shoe. Her trainer and jockey combined to win this race twice with Meccas Angel, while Mabs Cross hit the crossbar in 2018. Another of his mares, Que Amoro, finished second behind Battaash in 2020.

Chance her at 20/121.00 or bigger.

16:10 York - Back Dreamrocker @ 16/117.00 0.5pt e/w (5 places)

A couple of these appealed to me. Reach was high on the shortlist, having run well in two stronger course and distance events this year. She was a cosy winner of this race last year, and although five pounds higher, this doesn't look too deep. However, last year, she turned out to win this race quickly; this time, she has been off for 70 days, which tempers my enthusiasm.

I am not quite ready to give up on Dreamrocker - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - as Sandown was all wrong for her. She failed to get the pace I thought she would, but she kept on very well to finish third behind two horses that had been up with the van throughout. She deserved extra credit for that run.

Still, today's scenario will suit her better with a long home straight at York, giving her time to get the motor running and a likely strong pace. The move up in trip is another positive, considering she is a half-sister to the yard's very useful pair Dreamloper and Dreamweaver - the latter stayed up to 1m6f and won her first start, moved up to ten furlongs.

She ran well at this venue when she steamed home from off the pace in May behind Feel The Need against the boys. The winner chased home the useful Tolstoy next time. On that form she holds every chance. I am not thrilled about Luke Morris in the saddle, but she is better than a mark of 75 when things drop right and at a price that looks worth chancing.

16:45 York - No Bet

I had Ultrasoul and Arabian Angle down as next-time-out winners, but this is a £100,000 Maiden, an unusual race that has attracted plenty of potential. This expensive purchase, Angelo Buonarroti, does not convince me, but the early market seems to be 5/23.50 into 11/53.20. I prefer Ultrasoul, who will appreciate this move up to seven furlongs, but there's only so confident you can be in this.

17:20 Back Ebt's Gaurd @ 10/111.00 0.5pt e/w

Another tough race with plenty to consider, but Ebt's Gaurd - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is well handicapped on the evidence of his Goodwood finishing effort last time when denied a clear run at a crucial stage. He blazed home all too late to catch the winner, who had a clear crack at things down the outside.

He gave firm signals he was ahead of the handicapper, and his form tied in with this favourite Dosman through multiple lines. There's a good chance that Dosman is a big danger if ready to go following a 62-day break, but his Cambridgeshire entry does temper enthusiasm. However, Ebt's Gaurd has improved with each run, and he is a winner in waiting from this mark of 91 on the evidence of his last three outings.

He should have won at Ascot on his penultimate start behind Zain Blue but was checked as he made his challenge. The runner-up is 11 lb higher in weights, and the sixth won out the next time and is rated 90.

He has had few goes in a big-field handicap, and he is the type of horse that needs to be covered up for as long as possible and delivered with a late burst, so he could have plenty more to come in this scenario. Stall 11 will allow him to find cover in the midfield, and Lewis Edmunds gets on great with him. His rider was aggressive for a prominent early position at Goodwood, and provided he delivers on time, he can make amends for his near miss off four pounds lower.

The selection is less "sexier" than a few at the top of this market, but his price is too big to pass up. Dosman may be the better long-term prospect, hence the E/W play, but William Muir and Chris Grassick's runner has stacks of ability.

Back the selection at 10/111.00 or bigger.

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