Daryl Carter's Tips: 20/1 Woods and Havlin can enhance excellent strike rate with youngster

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has three Wednesday bets from Kempton and Wincanton

Daryl Carter has three selections on Wednesday, including a 20/121.00 NAP at Kempton, as he targets Wincanton and the AW action...

  • Fergal can get a result at Wincanton

  • Look to the Gosden's to down course specialist

  • 20/121.00 is a massive price for the NAP in lucky last

  • Rachael Blackmore Serial Winners Fund at £205K - Read more here

  • 16:00 Wincanton - Back Denemethy @ 4/15.00 1pt

    This could be a straight shootout between Denemethy - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and Goonhilly. The latter sports first-time cheek-pieces and ran as well as expected in the red-hot Imperial Cup at Sandown 18 days ago and will find this much more straightforward.

    However, he has had plenty of chances at a lesser level to get off the mark and is the type to be overbet.

    Instead, a valid alternative is the Fergal O'Brien horse, which holds some very strong point-to-point form and is entirely unexposed. He chased home the useful 138-rated Mint Boy of Gavin Cromwell's and Gordon Elliott's Navan Maiden Hurdle winner Rainbow Trail in one of those point-to-points before going on to score at Knockanard by four lengths, giving weight and a beating to the smart 131-rated Lowry's Bar.

    The latter has strength in depth. In third was Henry De Bromhead's Albert Bartlett runner Chigorin (126), and in fifth was Lucinda Russell's Whistle Stop Tour (122).

    He made a promising bumper debut at Carlisle when no match for the exciting Mister Meggit, but he fought off two subsequent hurdle winners in third and fourth, and his hurdle debut was too bad to be accurate, stopping quickly.

    He has since undergone wind surgery, is now fitted with a tongue-tie, and returns from a break. Having jumped right in his point-to-point and at Chepstow, the move to a right-handed track is a positive, and he is worth another chance in an overall weak Maiden Hurdle.

    16:00 Wincanton - Back Denemethy @ 4/15.00

    Bet here

    19:00 Kempton - Back Mostabshir @ 5/23.50 1pt

    This is Mount Athos' bread and butter - seven furlongs at Kempton - and his impressive 3-3 record is not to be ignored, but he will do well to give weight to Mostabshir - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was highly tried last term to no effect. Still, he didn't disgrace himself in the Group 1 St James's Palace at Royal Ascot, among other good efforts, and he appeals as the type to make into a better four-year-old.

    The John and Thady Gosden runner bolted up here on his only visit on his debut, and the move back in trip to a sharp seven furlongs looks like a good one. His win at York last year was a slowly run affair won by a burst of speed, so a return to this venue should see him in the best light.

    At the same time, Jim Crowley's presence in the saddle and the reapplication of the blinkers give confidence that connections have him right for this return. He could easily be the answer with a good draw in stall three.

    Mums Tipple is hard to predict, while Rohaan has won here and is on a fair mark, so he can't be dismissed in a tricky race.

    Any 5/23.50 or bigger is acceptable.

    19:00 Kempton - Back Mostabshir @ 5/23.50

    Bet here

    19:30 Kempton - Back Sonmarg @ 20/121.00 1.5pt

    It's always worth noting when trainer Sean Woods books Robert Havlin for a ride, given that the pair is profitable to back £33 to a £1 level stake and has a 20% strike rate - 27% this year alone.

    The trainer's best chance of a winner may come at the end of the day with Sonmarg - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was a little backwards as a two-year-old but shaped with promise on a couple of occasions and should appreciate this step up in the distance and move to the all-weather.

    Sonmarg caught the eye on debut, having missed the break at Windsor and being short for room. Then he made use of the experience at the same venue, scoring over now 82 and 84-rated runners who went on to boost the form. That race didn't look like a deep Maiden at the time, but it has worked out well.

    He struggled to saddle a six-pound penalty at Thirsk next time, only managing a three-length third, but he chased home a pair that subsequently finished first and second in the British EBF £100,000 York final and are both rated 88.

    I am happy to forgive his final run of the year when he failed to handle the undulations of Newmarket, given that this is a weak race, and he has since been gelded. The switch to the AW, which saw his brother Gulmarg finish a narrow third on this card for the trainer last year (18:30), should be a positive.

    There's more to come from him off this rating of 78 on the balance of his form with natural improvement, and from a good draw, he is hard to ignore at any 12/113.00 or bigger.

    19:30 Kempton - Back Sonmarg @ 20/121.00

    Bet here

    Now Read: Good Friday Antepost Tips: 8/1 Blanchland a big player on Newcastle Finals Day


2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) April 1st

2024 P/L = +8.86 ROI 5.95%

BSP P/L = -22.3 ROI -14.96%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +8


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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