Daryl Carter's Tips: 20/1 chance could be hard to pass back at Windsor

• Will relish heavy ground at Windsor

• He is 3-4 at this track

• Gave firm signs of bouncing back last time

It's a tranquil start to the week for me. One selection on Monday while Tuesday follows suit. Still, it gives me plenty of time to get stuck into Cheltenham's Showcase Meeting starting on Friday, so keep it light as we build through the week.

I was tempted to get involved with the 14:15 at Plumpton in which Gary Moore's horse Sangiovese 7/24.50 interested me, having shaped with considerable promise on his bumper debut and switched to hurdling should be seen to better effect under today's softer conditions. Still, the price went into 9/43.25, so I had to leave him alone, but he is worth a watch.

14:55 Windsor - Back Punchbowl Flyer @ 22/123.00 0.5pt e/w

The dead eight runners make things tricky here. Still, there was more promise in the recent run of Punchbowl Flyer - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - at Goodwood than in any other recent start, and I find it interesting connections run him six pounds out of the handicap up in grade eight days on from that effort.

The above can be seen as a negative to his chances, given he is eligible for lesser races than this nowadays, but he has an excellent 75% 3-4 record at this venue, and it's baffling as to why connections haven't been here since 2021 when rated 105. It's likely the powers that be wanted to take advantage of their opportunity with him after his latest effort, and the quick turnaround should be a sign that all is well with him and he could be about to hit form.

The fact that all of his wins have come over six furlongs is a slight worry at this minimum trip, but testing heavy ground and his forward-going racing style somewhat eliminates that concern.

He has fallen a long way in the weights in the past 12 months, but the return to Windsor, his favourable draw, the lack of pace rivalry and the receipt of weight from everything in the race are reasons to expect him to go well today.

When the ground turns heavy at Windsor, they tend to use the far side rail - one that has previously seen Punchbowl Flyer to good effect - and his usual unfavoured high draw will become an advantage today.

He is a punchy selection, but he looks well worth chancing on the promise of his latest effort at Goodwood, with many of these unappealing outside of the obvious at the head of the market, but only at 20/121.00 or bigger.