-
Two Monday selections
-
Wise Eagle should enjoy this less-taxing assignment
-
Chance Savvy at Southwell at 16/117.00
It's never wise to be negative about an unexposed three-year-old like Oxford Comma, but who is backing her for this assignment at 11/102.11? That price has to come out unequivocally by race time. She may well be the answer to this, but she has the stamina to prove, and her form hardly looks strong enough to make a case from her official rating of 94 when you consider her Salisbury run, which saw her beat two horses in second and fourth rated in the 70s.
I must take her on, and last year's winner Wise Eagle - 15/44.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is surely the play here. Rajinsky has a little to prove following his flop after an absence and has been behind the selection previously. Kyle Of Lochalsh has been a solid handicapper this term, but this small-field tactical race may not suit him.
Wise Eagle needs forgiving a lesser effort 38 days ago in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup, but he has been mixing it in some strong races, and he should appreciate this drop into calmer waters. He has bounced back from lesser runs as recently as three starts back when he recorded an RPR rating of 109 when third to Alsakib and Al Qareem at York. Either of those two would be heavy odds on chances in today's race, and the selection is third favourite in a four-runner contest.
Furthermore, his last visit to this venue saw him land this race in 2022, and the cheek-pieces tried this season, which looked to have run their course the last twice, have been removed.
The ground is of little concern, considering he shaped well when runner-up a few years back at Catterick in slop in a hurdle race. Today looks like the best opportunity the selection has had for some time, having been stuck on a high rating and not good enough for those top-level staying races. There's enough to like to warrant a bet at 5/23.50 or bigger.
16:15 Pontefract - Back Wise Eagle
Yorkshire - 10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has been running in better races than this, and his victory is long overdue, so he can take full advantage of this drop into a 0-85 and return to the AW.
The four-year-old is one of only a handful on the upgrade, and his excellent second at Haydock 45 days ago is the best piece of recent form on offer.
It's a bonus that he has a good course record at Southwell, scoring on last year's seasonal return and a shorthead second last May.
He is a strong stayer at this seven-furlong trip, and this venue suits his fast-finishing running style well. A good draw in stall six for a fair position adds to his claims, and following breaks for 50 days or more (today 45), his record reads 15211.
He is handicapped to have a say, and he dips into a Class 4 contest for the first time since his shorthead defeat here eight runs ago in 2023.
He should take some stopping in this company, granted luck in running, and 3/14.00 or bigger is acceptable.
16:50 Wolverhampton - Back Yorkshire
Urban Sprawl must be respected now that he has bounced back to form. With a positive AW record, he should possibly be the favourite under Oisin Murphy. Still, we know what we are getting with the Johnston runner, and perhaps that's not the case with the selection, rightly or wrongly.
I hope to exchange some of my recent bad luck for good in siding with Savvy Exchange - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.
He stopped very quickly at Ascot 44 days ago as though something was a miss, and it's worth putting a line through that run.
In the hope that connections have sorted the issue, he might be worth chancing following some good earlier season work. He is reunited with today's rider, Robert Havlin, who has twice gone narrowly close with him, which may be a sign that all is okay following Ascot and a 44-day break.
The selection's fast-finishing second at Redcar in July has not worked out as well as one would like, but the winning filly was progressive then, even if she has now gone off the boil. Either way, he was the horse to take from the race, having been held up in a slowly run affair and rattling home off the gallop. His previous effort at Pontefract saw him denied a clear run, and his win at the venue on his seasonal return has worked out well, with the third advertising the form well in two starts behind the smart Mount Atlas and running into the low 80s when scoring in his Novice over a subsequent winner.
His debut and only piece of AW form at Wolverhampton is solid three-year-old form. He nearly pegged back the winner, Swindon, rated 88; in third was Fouroneohfever (91) and in fourth was Portsmouth, rated 86.
He was well-backed on that debut, and more is expected of him following only a handful of starts from this rating of 78; he could be a surprise package in this race against mainly exposed older rivals with excuses for two of his three runs in handicaps. 10/111.00 or bigger is acceptable.
17:43 Southwell - Back Savvy Exchange