Daryl Carter's Tips: 15/2 Bloom can blossom for Haggas at Haydock

• Orchid Bloom has been laid out for Haydock test

• Chance Kylian now gelded

• Mountain Breeze is the wrong price

• Jumby can bounce back at Nemarket

• Get a FREE bet every time your team scores a goal in August!

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Saturday Ryan Moore Superboost

The feature race across the UK and Ireland on Saturday is the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh.

Betfair ambassador Ryan Moore has six rides across the card but his best chance on the day looks to be on the odds-on favourite in the 16:35.

If you fancy Whistlejacket to win the 16:35 at the Curragh you can now back him at the Superboosted price of 6/52.20 from 5/61.84!

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The Shergar Cup is not for everyone, and the immediate reaction after backing a loser at this meeting is to suggest it's a load of old rubbish.

However, if you can ignore the awful idea that racing is a team game--a concept that racing leaders want to force on fans stronger than your granny at Christmas with a newly knitted sweater--then it's quality competitive racing for valuable prize money.

Lord North became a NR shortly after the column filed. I have now updated by removing that horse and adding a horse from Newmarket.

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13:35 Ascot - Back Kylian @ 11/112.00 1pt

I will take a bit of a swing with Kylian - 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who this time last year was going off favourite for the Group 3 Molecombe Stakes at Goodwood along with Group 1 winner Big Evs.

It's not been easy for Kylian since then, but there might be reason to expect him to go well today. The angle is the recent gelding operation. Archie Watson has a good record of further improvement in horses following the snip, whether the first, second or third time out. This list of recent names is endless. Tempus, Shartash, Albasheer, Perfectly Timed, Aerospace and more. Further, digging saw Invincible Spirt progeny improve significantly for the procedure.

If a horse ticked the boxes for needing a gelding operation, Kylian is the poster boy. Interestingly, connections stick with the cheekpieces despite a down-the-field effort at Doncaster in July, and based on the visual evidence of his previous performances, they will surely enhance his chances.

The selection requires a small leap of faith, but three-year-olds have a good record in this race, winning the last two and holding a good winner-to-runner ratio, while Billy Loughnane is a gift from above when it comes to these races. With stacks of pace in this race, I expect Kylian to get a good clip to aim for. On his seasonal/yard debut at York in May, there was enough encouragement to think he had trained on, and he had no chance in the Group 1 King Charles from the wrong side of the track.

He may be worth another chance, in a handicap from a reduced rating, and 9/110.00 or bigger is acceptable.

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14:10 Ascot - No Bet

This was tricky. At the time of writing, Gordon Elliot's Samui 9/43.25 is not running. He is a reserve and needs one to come out. My colleague Kevin Blake explained that this handicap fills from the bottom up. It's a 0-100, and priority is given to those in the rating bracket, not out of it.

Therefore, this race could easily change shape. It's wide open, and on the Racing Only Bettor Podcast, I came down on the side of Sheridan 7/18.00 into 11/26.50 as the likely winner. He took a big step forward from his British/yard debut at Ascot to Goodwood, and with minimal improvement, he will be a factor in this. These rivals are more exposed, and he won 1m7f in France. He caught the eye at Goodwood. Still, 7/18.00 will look more like 4/15.00 if Samui comes out of this, and that's just too short. I was hoping his Goodwood run would be entirely missed in the market.

Of the rest, Fox Journey continues to disappoint, and his best efforts have now come when fresh. Spirit Mixer is solid enough, but it's a favourite you would rather take on than back despite the better effort last time. It's tough to make cases for the rest, and my interest quickly disappeared.

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14:25 Haydock - Back Kilt @ 4/15.00 1pt

William Haggas' Kilt - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is far less exposed than any of these, and this improving three-year-old has been ridden with handicaps in mind during three outings. He is the selection for the Racing Only Bettor podcast.

He scored at Newmarket on his seasonal debut in May, and Ceiran Fallon was eager not to win by too far. He loomed over the leader and was ridden under hand and heels alongside the runner-up before he nudged out at the finish following one tap of the stick. That was a taking performance; the time figure was very good - quicker than the subsequent Britannia runner-up - and the form has worked out well. The second and third were previously touched off by the smart Kikkuli (112), and the former went close on handicap debut at the same venue off 86.

The fourth was Lord Of Love, now rated 97, and narrowly defeated off 91 at Goodwood. The fifth is rated 92, the seventh was a subsequent winner now rated 85, and the race has produced multiple winners since.

He was down the field in sixth at Newmarket on his latest outing, but the winner, Ombudsman, is a Group 1 horse in my mind. The runner-up has won twice since. The third is rated 95, the fourth was touched off a neck at Southwell by a 93-rated rival, and the fifth won at Newmarket over Treasure Time off 91 and is rated 98. A nose narrowly denied the seventh next time; the ninth has placed behind a smart one in a race that looks good form.

Furthermore, Both the selection and subsequent handicap winner, First Conquest, were attempting to defy a penalty.

Since we last saw him, the gelding operation is an interesting move, but William Haggas's horses improve significantly when he moves to handicaps and this mark of 87 shouldn't be beyond him. Three-year-olds have an outstanding record in this race, winning five of the six races they have been represented, and he gets the vote over Phoenix Passion with Theme Park and Twirling, feared most of the older horses.

Back the selection at 4/15.00 or bigger.

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14:45 Ascot - No Bet

Insanity holds a strong piece of recent course form, and he looks sure to give his running, particularly if coming on for his first outing for four months, having bumped into a three-year-old handicap debutant who was ridden in previous outings to improve for the switch to that sphere.

The Sportsbook go 4/15.00, and as big as 5/16.00 are available. Still, I can't grumble at the 4/15.00 as I like the horse he was touched off by last time. His jockey Rachel King (no relation to trainer Alan) rode Strutting to brilliant effect in the Sandringham to finish runner-up, so punters should have no qualms there.

Little money in weak opening markets has come for William Haggas' returning Truthful into 9/25.50, and she is fairly treated on the evidence of her Salisbury run on her penultimate start of last term. Still, she is hardly reliable.

I have stamina doubts about Cracksking at this stiff 1m4f trip, and The Goat is hard to trust.

I thought Set Point was interesting here. He once promised to be a smart horse for Hugo Palmer and arrives on the back of a victory in the Ladies Derby at the Curragh. His mark is well within reach, and he has only had ten flat outings. I can see him being bigger than 7/18.00 on the day, though, and more like 10/111.00, so I will wait and play him as a small bet (advised on the Racing Only Bettor Podcast).

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15:05 Newmarket - Back Jumby @ 14/115.00 1pt

It takes a leap of faith to back Jumby - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and there are clear signs that he has had enough of racing, but the return to Newmarket, where he has an excellent record and the drop in grade, may be enough to spark him back to life.

The six-year-old has yet to show spark since being gelding in October, but he has had very tough asks, and this is his most straightforward assignment. He finished well down the field at Ascot last time in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes, but he is not a Group 1 horse nor a six-furlong horse, and he doesn't like headgear.

Today, he returns to Newmarket for the first time since July 2023, when he ran second to the smart Audience. He has dropped significantly in grade into a handicap and is back over his correct trip.

Interestingly, his best career performance came immediately after his headgear was removed, when he landed the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury in 2022, and I am hoping lightning can strike twice here.

He has bounced back from out of the blue to score before, and his Newmarket July course record reads 2330, including the Bunbury Cup. He is worth taking a flyer on.

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15:20 Ascot - No Bet

This was another race in which I struggled to escape a short-priced favourite. Jarraaf 15/82.88 will surely be hard to beat. Unexposed and on the upgrade, he was the horse with plenty in hand of the handicapper following his recent course victory.

Outside of the favourite Thunder Blue made the most appeal. He returned to winning ways at Wolverhampton nine days ago and is still fairly treated on his two-year-old form. However, a stiff six furlongs may not be his bag.

This is Jarraaf's to lose. By the end of the season, he will prove much better than these.

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15:40 Newmarket - Back Mountain Breeze @ 15/82.88 2pt

Lake Victoria looked useful at the Curragh last time but has an entirely different task on her hands today. Travelling over to Newmarket's undulations and stepping up in grade will provide a different test for her. There's no Ryan Moore who stays in Ireland, and Aidan O'Brien hasn't had a runner in this race for at least ten years, so it's out of the ordinary that she is here. Horses that previously won the same Maiden she did have gone to Leopardstown (won by Bedtime Story), which may offer insight into the Ballydoyle pecking order.

Mountain Breeze - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - should be a clear favourite for this. The Charlie Appleby horse has done little wrong in her short career.

Her latest staying-on second in the Duchess Of Cambridge has worked out well. The third won at Naas next time, the fifth went very close to scoring in France, and the sixth was touched off three parts of a length in a Group 3 on her next outing.

That is strong form, and her form figures at Newmarket read 211. The angle for improvement comes with the step up to seven furlongs for the first time, for which she looked ready on her latest outing. She is the clear pick here.

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15:55 Ascot - No bet

Our Sunday winner, Solomon 13/82.63, has been well-backed since the market opened for this, and quite rightly so. He looks near impossible to beat on paper despite the step up in grade with this new 1m4f distance surely to unlock further improvement. He gets the services of the former Italian Champion apprentice and current Baharain and Qatar Champion jockey Alberto Sanna.

Solomon was pulled out of Sandown on Thursday when he was due to run a measly 6k and now lines up for close to 40k. He is tough to oppose, but the market has him in its grasp.

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16:30 Ascot - No bet

This time last year, I tipped and backed Fox Tal at 20/121.00 to win this race. I was in agony at the line as his rider Joa Moreira stopped riding ten yards before the post, and Perotto caught him. However, this is a good opportunity for New Image to get a deserved victory following excellent efforts the last two at Ascot and York. He did little wrong at Ascot in the competitive Moet And Chandon when touched off by a useful performer who was allowed the run of the race.

He stuck to the task powerfully and remained unexposed. His pedigree screams 1m, and there is undoubtedly improvement to come over this longer trip. Today's race is on the round mile, and he is drawn well in stall two, provided Hayley Turner can use it.

I am immediately concerned about his rider, Turner, as I haven't had much luck with her in the saddle on this Ascot round course.

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16:45 Haydock - Back Orchid Bloom @ 15/28.50 1pt e/w

William Haggas' Orchid Bloom - 15/28.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has had this race as a target since she finished third last term and has been building to a bigger performance.

Following a below-par performance at Ascot behind Running Lion in Group 2, the four-year-old has been overlooked in the market when only managing a down-the-field effort. However, she had little chance to get involved from her position in a slowly run race, and the rattling-fast ground was not what she wanted. The tongue-tie worn for the first time there has been removed.

She is better judged on her eye-catching running on fourth at the Curragh behind Ocean Jewel and Rogue Millennium, who both have since filled the third and fourth spots in the Prix Rothschild Group 1 in Deauville. Rogue Millennium had forced a dead heat for third in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes in between her Curragh and France effort, and that is just about the best form on offer.

The selection is two pounds off the top weight in this contest, and this looks like a weaker renewal than last year, where she finished third from a wide draw in stall 11. Last year's race had an average rating of 103. This year's is 97, and that is providing the once-raced American Arrow can run to the rating of 90 I gave her.

I expect Tom Marquand to pop out from stall six and ride prominently. She has been strong at the finish in her races, so I expect her to continue her steady improvement, and any rain that falls on Saturday morning will enhance her chances.

William Haggas has won this race three times in the last ten years and finished second and third in last year's renewal.

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Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.

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