Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 12-1 Hecouldbetheone to bring a profitable Wednesday

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter says his NAP is well ahead of the handicapper.

Daryl Carter has four selections on Wednesday and looks to Newbury for his best bet of the day's action...

  • Newbury NAP was far better than the bare result last time

  • Back three horses at Newbury

  • Old boy Top Secret will relish the return to Kempton this evening

13:25 Newbury - Back Amrons Sage @ BSP 1pt

Amrons Sage - 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook - should relish this move up in distance at the first time of asking, having hinted that he could do with a stiffer test of stamina when over hurdles last term.

Nicky Henderson's youngster looks on the right side of the handicapper, having finished second off four pounds lower to a well-handicapped rejuvenated rival over an inadequate test at Exeter on seasonal return.

With that run under his belt, the former point-to-point winner can improve now going out in distance in this sphere, and soft ground should hold no fears, having won at Ludlow last year under the same conditions.

Of his rivals, Theatre Man ran well enough here behind an improver 41 days ago, but he looks high in the handicap and won't be allowed a soft lead. Brave Kingdom looks like a natural, having won well switched to this discipline 30 days ago, but he must back that up having come off a long lay-off while his stamina is far from confirmed.

Pulling Stumps is entitled to improve for his chase debut at Exeter. Still, he may lack the quality of one or two of these, and Hector Javilex is an unknown quantity on return and chasing debut but is respected despite struggling in three points to points.

Back the selection at 9/43.25 or bigger but BSP will prove a more profitable option.

13:25 Newbury - Back Amrons Sage @ BSP

Bet now

14:35 Newbury - Back Gidleigh Park @ 15/82.88 1pt

Gidleigh Park - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - faces his toughest assignment yet, but everything about his two victories to date points to him being a useful horse, and he should relish today's testing conditions.

Harry Fry's Novice effortlessly pulled clear at Chepstow on debut from the useful prospect, The Jukebox Man, who has won his next three outings and was a previous point-to-point winner over a Gordon Elliott inmate in Cleatus Poolaw - that one has since chased home the smart Daddy Long Legs and the Chepstow bumper has produced multiple winners.

At the same time, his hurdle debut at Exeter 30 days ago has also seen the well-beaten second bolt up next time, and the race recorded a useful time figure.

The move up in distance will surely bring out further improvement, and today's ground conditions swing things significantly in his favour over his nearest market rival, East India Express. He should be up to giving away a penalty to the useful - but long-term project - of Fire Flyer before going on to bigger things.

Any 13/82.63 or bigger is acceptable.

14:35 Newbury - Back Gidleigh Park @ 15/82.88

Bet now

15:10 Newbury - Back Hecouldbetheone @ 12/113.00 1.5pt e/w (NAP)

There won't be many better run handicap chases at Newbury this season than the one Hecouldbethone - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - injected pace into on his chase debut, and having been better than the bare result there, he makes plenty of appeal now in an open handicap which is effectively down in grade.

Chris Gordon's runner made a very positive chase debut under Rex Dingle, who got an excellent tune out of him but did a little too much too soon, having easily eclipsed Nickle Back's front-running performance from the water jump to the final flight. He set it up for those in behind while the winner crossed the line in as good a circuit time as Hermes Allen in the Grade 2 John Francome. That race almost certainly resembles form to follow, and Hecouldbetheone must be ahead of the handicapper on that evidence.

The selection was entitled to need the outing at Plumpton on his return from 577 days off the track, and this was a chasing debut that suggested he had a bright future in this sphere. He has dropped two pounds for his latest fifth of six at Newbury and has a very workable rating of 116.

His hurdle form looks rocks solid, and it's surely only a matter of time before he gets off the mark in this sphere with an unexposed profile over 2m, so tackling far weaker opposition today, he must be of firm interest, and a repeat of his latest outing - if ridden a with a little more restraint - will be good enough to land this.

Etalon is interesting on chase debut and seasonal return, while Gallic Geordie can go well under Ben Bromley if they go too hard up front.

15:10 Newbury - Back Hecouldbetheone @ 12/113.00

Bet now

19:00 Kempton - Back Top Secret @ BSP 1pt

It is well worth forgiving Top Secret's recent runs on turf when last seen 102 days ago in deep Class 2 contests - now he is returned to the AW, having proven in the past that he can bounce back when switched to this surface.

The six-year-old is unexposed on the AW after just six outings with form figures of 112634, with the latest of those three efforts coming at this Kempton venue (112) in stronger races than this as recent as last November.

Top Secret may not be the force of old, but he is lightly raced, unexposed at this 1m distance, and has proven to go well when fresh off a break.

He has been granted the plum draw in stall one for his prominent racing style, and his last visit to this venue was a win last November in a useful Class 3 0-90 over Notre Belle Bete, who is 12lbs higher in the handicap and an unexposed Godolphin inmate in Nobel Order.

Three-year-olds only get a 1lb weight allowance at this time of year, and Urban Sprawl and Talis Evolvere look held by the handicapper on recent evidence.

19:00 Kempton - Back Top Secret @ BSP

Bet now

Read Cheltenham Festival Focus Week 7 here.

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update December 31st

Advised Stakes = +120.37pts ROI 10.18%

BSP = +114.0pts ROI +9.64%


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