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Tripoli expected to fly on good ground at Chepstow
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Let It Rain, the class act on hurdle debut
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Never has Tritonic had a better chance to score at Kempton
This is a tricky race, but Tripoli Flyer is expected to get off the mark at the chief expense of Jurancon, who is undoubtedly of interest once he is up on a trip and/or on soft ground. He has neither of those today, and the Fergal O'Brien runner looks to have an excellent chance to get off the mark at the first attempt over hurdles thanks to drying ground.
The five-year-old was progressive in bumpers last term and should have won the deep Aintree Grade 2 bumper at the end of the season, but for hitting the front too soon. He will be well-schooled to get off the mark here, and the brother to Anyharminaskin is a strong candidate for a winning bet.
Jack Tudor didn't make enough use of Jurancon on his hurdling debut behind the useful The Kemble Brewery at Worcester. He made all the running at a sedate gallop, and the race turned into a sprint over the final three flights. The five-year-old is a promising prospect but wants deep ground at this 2m distance and is already crying out for a move up in trip as his pedigree suggests.
Jurancon's high knee action means he must be opposed on today's surface. Look to back the selection at BSP to get around the 6/52.20 mark - currently around 1.9720/21 on the Betfair Exchange.
13:20 Chepstow - Back Tripoli Flyer
The fact that Dan Skelton is happy to let his unbeaten bumper winner, Let It Rain, take her chance against the boys the first time up in a Maiden Hurdle speaks volumes.
She was impressive when landing a Listed bumper at Ascot over Brechin Castle and Celtic Dino. That form is already starting to work out well, with the latter hacking up on his hurdle debut at Wincanton and the sixth finished third to Royal Infantry next time in a Listed race at Newbury.
It's not difficult to tie her bumper form into hurdle form that rates around the mid-120s mark, and she has won as she liked in both outings, so there is every chance she can rate higher than that. She was hot property for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in the weeks leading up to the race, and she should be able to take care of these if she is going to have anywhere near close to the year connections think. She is a genuine candidate for the Mares Novice Hurdle come the end of the season, provided her jumping is up to scratch, and this yard tends to have them well-schooled.
She appeals to French Ship, whom I expect the market to give further support to. However, if the Mare is as good as she was in bumpers last term, he needs to improve significantly on his latest run 26 days ago. Use BSP with the thinking that the market will support the Hobbs horse with experience and look for 5/61.84 or bigger - currently 1.794/5 on the Betfair Exchange.
13:50 Chepstow - Back Let It Rain
This can go to Tritonic - 11/53.20 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who should find this ease into calmer waters much more suitable than his recent assignments on the flat, and a repeat of his last run here at Kempton in April would be enough to win this.
The seven-year-old has gone a long time between victories, but this is his best opportunity to score for some time, and he has been remarkably consistent this term, posting RPRs in the high 90s. The handicapper continues to ease him in the weights, and having run at the York Ebor festival, Goodwood festival and Royal Ascot on his last three outings on the flat, this is a welcome rest bite.
His AW record reads 0-3, but his fourth to Prydwen and fifth here to Duty Of Care, when unfavoured by the pace of the race, is good enough form to be competitive. He gets the percentage call over Cool Party, who has dictated slowly run races to notch his victories. He will be dangerous if allowed to dictate again. In the hope that Tritonic is ridden close enough to the pace to use his smart turn of foot, he can get back in the winner's enclosure.
He appeals at 11/53.20 or bigger.
17:30 Kempton - Back Tritonic