Daryl Carter's Tips: 11/4 Get involved with the Saturday Sandown NAP

• Involvement should be a clear favourite at Sandown

• Mullins can strike at Chester with Ebor winner

• Field Of Gold could be Gosden treasure

Absurde Superboost

We know the Betfair Sportsbook like to take risks, well today's superboost can only be described as absurd, or should that be Absurde?

A strong favourite to land the Chester Stakes at 15:15, Willie Mullins' Cheltenham Festival winner is now 1/12.00 (from 1/31.33) to finish in the top three in today's Listed contest. To take advantage of this super-boosted price just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded bet slip.

13:20 Beverley - Back Thundering @ 15/28.50 1pt

4 (3)

Thundering

• J: Hollie Doyle
• T: Kevin Ryan
• F:

This is not a great renewal, and I want to be against Quietness, who won't be allowed her way up front like she was at Thirsk. That should test her stamina over this trip. She has been progressive, but I expect either Walter Hartright, Drawn To Dream, or Loyal Touch to push forward and offer resistance.

That could offer a pace collapse, and Thundering - 15/28.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is offered as the horse to take advantage. He caught the eye at his favoured Newcastle 35 days ago when denied a clear run and finishing under hand and heels riding, and it looks as though connections have spotted this race from someway out. Typically, this contest is a soft option, and many, like those mentioned above who have been running in Class 4 and 5 races, like to have a stab.

However, Thundering is a genuine Class 2 horse on a going day, and the hope is that he has found some form. His efforts last year included a Kilkerran Handicap victory at Ayr and a four-length defeat in Cambridgeshire at around the same time. He is now lower in weights following a slow start to the season, but his profile suggests he comes in good at the back end of the year. In 2022, he was progressive and was second in the Sky Bet Handicap at York off 85 in August, and this looks like his best chance yet.

With a good race set-up and potentially now in form, he is taken to capitalise on his reduced mark of 79 in poor renewal.
Back him at 4/15.00 or bigger.

13:50 Sandown - Back Havana Blue @ 7/18.00 1pt

4 (5)

Havana Blue

• J: Ryan Sexton
• T: Julie Camacho
• F:

Havana Blue - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - bounced back to form with a powerful win at Beverley last time and appreciated the move back in trip. Still, that was a strong effort in a well-run race over a stiff seven-and-a-half furlong trip, and today, he can kick on from that and continue to thrive from a reduced handicap mark.

Most of these are exposed, but trainer Julie Camacho revitalised her runner 17 days ago by removing the hood. Tinkering with headgear seems to work well for this yard, and there is no reason why this four-year-old should halt there.

He will have no issue with the track, having run well here on his penultimate start when finding 1m too taxing. It was good to see him ridden with a little more confidence at Beverley, so from stall five, I expect him to push forward again.

He is still lightly raced for his age, and the drying ground will see him to the best effect, so he rates a fair bet at 5/16.00 or bigger.

15:00 Sandown - Back Involvement @ 11/43.75 2.5pt NAP

2 (5)

Involvement

• J: William Buick
• T: Simon & Ed Crisford
• F:

This looks like a good spot for Involvement - 11/43.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook - to register his third career victory, and he is a confident choice to land this run-of-the-mill handicap.

He can be forgiven for his defeat in France, considering the winner will undoubtedly be making his mark in Group 1 races, and that was his first trip overseas. Today, he is back in grade and has the services of William Buick. He is returned to fast ground with an entirely unexposed profile. His dominant victory at Newmarket on his penultimate start is a strong form line advertised by the third and nith scoring next time out. His seventh in the Britannia handicap is also excellent form while he remains lightly raced, unexposed, on the upgrade. Considering his biggest dangers all want soft ground, and the weather is set for dry conditions, he should be the favourite.

Balmacara is a sound horse but needs soft ground, as does Dambuster and Wonder Legend.

The selection holds the strongest form and gets a healthy seven-pound weight allowance from his older rivals. Conditions are in his favour, and he makes great appeal with the weighted to the hilt Sean expected to chase him home.

Back the selection at 5/23.50 or bigger.

15:15 Chester - Back Absurde @ 7/24.50 2pt

1 (1)

Absurde (Fr)

• J: Daniel Tudhope
• T: W. P. Mullins, Ireland
• F:

Some would say it's absurd that Absurde - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is not a favourite for this contest, considering he beat Caius Chorister and Real Dream senseless in the Ebor on his penultimate flat run in Britain before being beaten a creditable five lengths in the Melbourne Cup and landing the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The six-year-old has been targeted at races throughout his career, and there is little doubt that his latest heavy defeat at the Curragh behind Grosvenor Square was no more than a prep run for this contest. That is easily forgiven considering how the race panned out, and much better is expected today.

His flat profile has plenty of upside after just 11 starts. He has finished in the first two on seven of those. This is much easier than his York assignment on his last visit to England. The track holds no fears, and he has been granted the plum draw in stall one.

Furthermore, he was a horse that was said to want a sound surface, and the drying Chester ground would play to his strengths. The form of his Ebor win has worked out well. He gave five pounds to the now 113-rated Sweet William, who would be an odds-on chance if he were to run in today's race and now contests Group 1 staying events. Undoubtedly, this was a plan from Willie Mullins, and I expect the Irish raider to collect it.

5/23.50 or bigger appeals.

15:35 Sandown - Back Field Of Gold @ 15/82.88 1.5pt

2 (5)

Field Of Gold (Ire)

• J: Kieran Shoemark
• T: John & Thady Gosden
• F:

Field Of Gold - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - may be hard to weigh up on a form front, but there is little doubt that he showed an outstanding turn of foot at Newmarket to win as he liked last time, improving from his debut effort behind the useful subsequent winner New Century.

He clocked back-to-back sub 11.5 furlongs to put his race to bed and still showed signs of greenness under pressure. He hit the line hard, and another performance improvement is expected today. None of his rivals has come close to recording such numbers over seven furlongs, and that powerful display marked him down as potentially top-notch and Guineas material.

It's tough to argue about many of these at this stage, although they are open to improvement. At the time of writing, he sets a clear standard, and from stall five, I expect Kieran Shoemark to push forward and be prominent.

An Outlaw's Grace is not a six-furlong horse, and he will appreciate this move up in trip, although reaching for headgear seems a bit drastic at this stage of his career. Hot Shott will likely come for money but will be seen to have a better effect over ten furlongs, and the market has it correct, with Royal Playwright in the second favourite position. The selection could be an even money chance.

Racing Only Bettor Podcast selections

For transparency purposes and for those that may have missed the podcast, in the future, for a Saturday column, I will list the Podcast selections at the bottom of this column. While in an ideal world, the podcast and column would be identical, the podcast only covers the ITV races, and as a column, I have the entire racing on Saturday to look through. The advised selections for the column (which must make a profit over the year) are listed with point stakes.

I hope this helps.

13:30 Beverley - Thundering

13:50 Sandown - Havana Blue

14:05 Beverley - No selection

14:25 Sandown - Tamfana

14:40 Chester - Two Tempting

15:00 Sandown - Involvement (NAP)

15:15 Chester - Absurde

15:35 Sandown - Field Of Gold

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