Daryl Carter's Tips: 11/4 Arizona to Blaze the Knavesmire on Day Two at York

• York and ITV covered

• Arizona Blaze is the standout bet at York

• New Image is a cracking E/W bet @ 13/27.50 with six places on the Sportsbook

• Walker has the key to Fillies Handicap

Listen to Day Two York Ebor Festival Racing Only Bettor Tips...

13:50 York - No bet

Karl Burke's Leovanni defied a remarkable drift in the market with an impressive and powerful display at Royal Ascot. The two-year-old fairly bolted up in the Queen Mary and likely from the unfavoured side of the track, highlighted by the day's remaining winner's racing centre or on the stands side rail. That analysis includes the Windsor Castle, where the first three raced stand side.

Still, Leovanni did the best of those on the pace with the second, third, fourth and fifth all given patient rides, and I was impressed with how effortlessly she moved through the race and put it to bed. On her pedigree, there's more to come for this move up to six furlongs, and she offered stacks of promise on her debut at Nottingham with an exceptional display.

There's plenty to like about her, and she has taken the same path as Dramatised before being a beaten favourite in this contest by taking a two-month break, so don't let that put you off.

The concern is that no horse in the last ten years has won this under a penalty, and while I do not believe that a small weight can make a huge difference, the trends are worth respecting at this meeting.

Heaven's Gate is a valid alternative. However, she didn't take a step forward when scoring at Naas last time. Gavin Cromwell's Fiery Lucy got closer than she did in the Dutchess Of Cambridge at Newmarket, and the runner-up from that same Newmarket race has been brushed aside since.

According to her trainer's remarks following the Naas victory, the plan was to move up to seven furlongs, and she missed her engagement in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh ten days ago. She is pretty straightforward, though, and the fact that connections had her in the race at the Curragh suggests they think enough of her to be extremely competitive here in receipt of three pounds from the Ascot winner. Still, it's stale form now, and she needs to take a step forward with her highest RPR rating of just 96. She gives me the same vibes as last year's Ballydoyle representative Cherry Blossom - she's good, she's not great.

Heaven's Gate's recent form ties in with Tales Of The Heart and course winner Betty Clover through Simmering. The latter pushed the Albany runner-up very close at Ascot 26 days ago, and she must be respected.

However, she was well held by Leovanni at Ascot over five furlongs in the Queen Mary, and it's difficult to see that form being reversed unless the Karl Burke horse flops.

Others to take seriously are Time For Sandles, who went close at Newbury in the big sales race from an unpromising position and likely bumped into a very useful type in Cadburn. She will appreciate the return to six furlongs and her debut form was boosted at Goodwood by the runner-up. However, there wasn't enough in the finishing kick to consider her for this task.

Miss Lamai looks held by two of these, and Perfect Part has never been better than her debut at Beverley, although there was more encouragement at a lower level last time.

Celandine is the form horse in this race with her Empress Fillies' Stakes Listed win in June over Tales Of The Heart and subsequent Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes winner Arabian Dusk. She failed to fire when supplemented for a Group 2 in France next time and possibly found the slower ground against her. Still, a one-length defeat was no poor effort, mainly as the winner went within three lengths of Whsitlejacket in the Prix Morny next time with the Coventry winner in second. However, closer inspection of that Newmarket victory saw Tales Of The Heart short of room in the latter stages, and it may not have been decisive had the runner-up gotten the breaks.

Burke has been patient with Leovanni and treated her like a very good horse. I concur with her trainer's thoughts. She may get a good tow into this race and is drawn next to likely forward-goer Heaven's Gate.

It's a tricky affair, but I would side with Leovanni. However, I am not desperate for the 2/13.00 and would be far more interested in her at 7/24.50.

14:25 York - Back Arizona Blaze @ 11/43.75 2pt win (NAP)

There are 22 runners to consider for this valuable price, which sees the winner take home half a million quid. Richard Hannon has won this race five of the last eight years, and he saddles one that looks to hold every chance in the potentially very useful An Outlaw's Grace.

The Sportsbook is looking to duck him by offering the shortest price across the board, and rightly so, given his trainer's record and Ryan Moore's booking.

The two-year-old was well-held when he tried over seven furlongs at Goodwood in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes, but he was very green and seemed to dislike the track, which saw him unorganised at a crucial time. However, his trainer had nominated the six-and-a-half-furlong race this week at York in a preview, and it's wise to think the Goodwood outing was more experience for now. Still, he showed up well, and this is less competitive than the numbers suggest.

At the same time, favourite Maw Lam looks like a five-furlong sprinter, and she may find this trip stretching her stamina, while traffic problems could also crop up, given her racing style.

An Outlaw's Grace holds every chance, but this is not the six-and-a-half-furlong race Hannon noted for his runner. This speed test may prove too sharp for one who saw his two siblings win over 1m2f and 1m4f, so it is passed over for now.

The stand-out form horse in this race is Arizona Blaze - 11/43.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and arrives following a cracking third in Group 1 company last time. If this doesn't come too soon, he must be a massive player with this significant dip in class. Last time, he showed an excellent attitude at the Curragh when rallying behind the useful pair Babouche and Whistlejacket, the best sprinting form on offer by a street this season.

Arizona Blaze can be forgiven for his penultimate defeat in Group 2 company by doing too much too soon following his run at Ascot just ten days before. Still, he is already a Group winner over this trip and is tough to knock. He has a big weight, but he has earned it!

The only concern is whether this return to the track following a tough race just 12 days ago will be detrimental, but his price is too big to ignore at 11/43.75 or bigger. He should take some stopping from a favourably low draw, which could see him grab the far rail. This track and ground should suit him well, and he is fancied to land this, and I make him closer to 7/42.75.

15:00 York - Back New Image @ 13/27.50 1pt e/w (6 places)

No three-year-old has won this race in the past ten years, but only a handful have tried with two beaten favourites (one finished second), and the remainder were not well handicapped (rated over 100), Terwada rated 96 now rated 89, Racingbreaks Ryder rated 97 now rated 80, Saga from 2022 is still rated 105, Bass Player was rated 103 (now 70). No three-year-old had run in this race since 2017, when Ronald R was a beaten favourite off 104, and he has run twice since in America (well beaten). Before that, the smart Mustashry was beaten off 100 and went on to be rated 120, and before that, only Parbold ran off 105.

The point is that no three-year-old has run in this race with plenty of handicap scope since Mustashry went within half a length from a high rating, so there may be a fresh angle to this race in the coming years by siding with the younger horses, and Thunder Run and Aragon Castle must be respected.

Four-year-olds currently have a good record, and anything ridden prominently typically holds every chance.

The subject of early support has been Bopedro, who has the cheekpieces reapplied following a creditable effort at Ascot last time. It was something connections tried at this venue in 2022 to no good effect, but he must be showing something to move from his opening price, albeit in a market with little liquidity at the time of writing on Tuesday afternoon.

New Image - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is the solid each-way play. He has improved recently, with an excellent second in the Moet And Chandon at Ascot before a deserved Shergar Cup win. He still has handicap scope and holds an excellent run when a narrow third here three starts ago to Tolstoy - a subsequent course winner now 11lb higher before being beaten three lengths by Elnajmn at Ascot.

His draw in stall 12 is of little concern, given he is likely to sit forward in midfield, and the booking of Oisin Murphy can only be a positive (19%). The negatives are very tough to find, and his trainer has won this race twice in the last eight years.

There's no doubt Elnajamn is a smart horse, but his price of 5/23.50 is ludicrous win or lose, and he has stall 17 to overcome. Blue For You, Aragon Castle, and Thunder Run are all threats, as is the interesting Racing League winner Bennetot, but the selection looks like a solid each-way play at 13/27.50 or bigger with six places on offer.

15:35 York - No Bet

It could be a good half hour for Oisin Murphy, who has built up a good partnership with Queen Of The Pride in recent starts, and she took a giant stride forward at Haydock last time to land the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks.

This is a natural stepping stone, and she still looked a little green once hitting the front at Haydock. However, as much as I think of her, this is her most competitive assignment to date, and tactically, this race looks challenging to dissect. The other feeling is that she may be seen to be the best effect once tackling 1m6f, and three-year-olds have a good record in this and giving nine pounds to the improving, Content, is no easy task.

Content must be given plenty of respect. She arrives on an upward curve, having stayed on powerfully in the Irish Oaks, and talk of the Breeders' Cup suggests she is in the same mould as last year's winner, Warm Heart. Only the subsequent Arc winner, Alpinista, managed to halt the winning run of three-year-olds in this race and, before that, the outstanding Enable.

Ryan Moore's forte is tactical races. He will surely have his mount well positioned, and this fast ground 1m4f looks optimal. The Aidan O'Brien filly must reverse form with Emily Upjohn from their meeting at the Curragh over 10f in June. She stayed on strongly from an unpromising position that day, and today's quicker ground and move up in distance should bring them much closer.

This is her toughest assignment to date, but these conditions are yet untried, and everything points to a big run from Content before heading to America.

16:10 York - No Bet

Sea Just In Time visually looked outstanding at Newmarket on her debut when winning by four widening lengths. She possibly had excuses at Goodwood when reports suggested she was working poorly. Her return at Kempton 15 days ago may have been a prep run for this, so taking the form literally may not be wise. She did win that race under hand and heel riding over a solid yardstick in Beeley, and the time was fair.

The problem comes when the form or the time figures don't add up. While her visually impressive debut knocked some people (including me) over, the time of the race was more than 4.5 seconds slower than the following Listed race winner, Caviar Heights. Despite the runner-up scoring next time, she has left Charlie Appleby rated 82, the third was well held in a Goodwood handicap off 80, and the fourth has been beaten in handicaps off 80.

Her latest win at Kempton saw the second and third previously seven lengths behind Fairy Glen, who looks like a more solid and reliable each-way player. However, as mentioned, taking Sea Just In Time's Kempton form may be unwise. The Haggas filly travels like a good horse, and she holds significant potential, so I am not quick to take her on.

Fairy Glen and Karmology are good alternatives for each-way bettors, but I am happy to sit this out, given that my gut tells me Sea Just In Time could be pretty smart.

16:45 York - No Bet

Art Market represents the William Haggas yard, which has an excellent record in this race. It sent out the winner in 2022 and the runner-up in 2021 and 2020.

Art Market has improved leaps and bounds for the switch to handicaps, getting up late at Ascot and Yarmouth, and he remains ahead of the handicapper. The two-year-old took the scalp of the Chesham sixth on his latest outing, and that rival had also beaten a smart on in Lil Ban at Carlisle, who has since finished third to Heavens Gate at Naas. The third had previously been narrowly behind An Outlaw's Grace at Salisbury and had finished ahead of today's rival Spell Master at Newbury. The fourth was a subsequent winner at Epsom.

He was much better than the winning margin on his penultimate start at Ascot, having been hemmed in on the rail and forced to circle the small field to get up late in the day over six furlongs. He needed every yard of that trip.

I was torn between him and Richard Hannon's Angel Hunter, who has been on the radar for some time. He has shaped as this return to seven furlongs will suit, but stall 17, even under the handling of Ryan Moore, is a tough ask, and I felt backing hold-up performer Art Market was putting me at an immediate disadvantage at this track. Qaseem is another one who would be high on the shortlist in a typically competitive renewal, while Hot Property could attempt to make all from stall 2.

17:20 York - Back Key To Cotai @ 15/28.50 1pt e/w (5 places)

Ed Walker's Key To Cotai - 15/28.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is quietly progressive, and she represents an age group with an excellent record in this race, so she gets the vote to continue thriving.

The three-year-old arrives following a near miss at Haydock when stuck repeatedly short of room on the rail. She finished with stacks of running left under hand and heels after her rider dropped the whip shortly following the break. That effort suggested this mark is not her limit, and today she returns to York, where she ran an excellent fifth of 16 behind Zoulu Chief at this meeting last year over six furlongs.

She has had a productive season. She finished a narrow second on her seasonal return to one now rated 22 lb higher in the handicap and then scored in a strong handicap at Newmarket in May against the boys before finding subsequent Group 1 runner-up Jabaara too good at Carlisle when better than the bare result when doing the best of those from off a dawdling pace.

Today's set-up should suit her well, and she is a Listed filly in the making.

Further conviction in her case is the booking of William Buick, who has a 25% strike rate for Ed Walker in the last five years. They are a profitable combination, with a £40 return on a £1 stake.

Another good mention is Pinafore for William Haggas, who gets the first-time blinkers. Headgear stats are only useful if the particular horse wearing them will improve for them, and this one might. She won in first-time cheekpieces last year, and William Haggas has seen a few improvements in recent months, including Maljoom, Highland Spring and Pinafore's half-brother Elmonjed, who scored at Windsor for this column under this angle.

She may prove a fair each-way play at 20/121.00 but is vulnerable for win purposes, and Key To Cotai gets that vote.

Now Read: Ryan Moore's York thoughts here