Daryl Carter's Tips: 10/3 Varian runner can have punters dancing at Donny on Friday

• Shadow can have punters dancing again

• Jonquil looks like a smart one

• Magnum Force can repay backers for York near miss

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13:50 Doncaster - Back Shadow Dance @ 10/34.33 2pt (NAP)

It won't be easy for Shadow Dance--10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook--to give away lumps of weight to unexposed and improving three-year-olds. Still, the handicapper has only scraped the surface with the Roger Varian runner, who now steps up in trip and is open to further improvement.

The powerful four-year-old got back on track when scoring at York last time, having caught the eye at Ripon on his penultimate outing when he was strongest at the finish. Going back to last year when staying on second in the Rowley Mile, there is little doubt that this move up in distance has been on the cards for some time. He was momentarily outpaced at York but hit the line hard. While it looked like Lieber Power would catch him, the sectionals suggest that the runner-up showed a brighter turn of foot during the last three furlongs. The finishing speed of the race offers insight into how the race was run, and it was not nearly a stiff enough test for Shadow Dance, so while he got away with it at York, today's assignment, where staying prowess will win the day means he is fancied to improve on his York victory.

Given the steady-run affair, he deserved an upgrade for last time, and the market hasn't accounted for that. His form from last year, as examined in a previous column, is strong enough to think he can defy a five-pound rise by the handicapper.

Today's new distance opens up a further avenue for improvement, and he will have a productive Autumn when the ground eases even further.

Today's good ground should be perfect, and he has lots more to offer yet, while Doncaster's long home straight will suit, and regular rider James Doyle can wind him up from a long way out. On paper, this is a more straightforward assignment than York.

Subsequent is the clear threat in my book. He has needed a stamina-sapping trip and ground it out at Newmarket last time at the first attempt. He is now a winner of three of his last four starts. I have little doubt he is in a big danger, receiving plenty of weight from Shadow Dance. However, his form is a little suspect. He beat Calvert, who was seven out of the handicap at Newmarket by less than two lengths, and the third Fox Journey was a blatant non-stayer and miles behind the selection at Ripon.

Subsequent was found out at Goodwood with a no-show when tackling stronger company, and this is deeper still. I expect him to pose the biggest threat as I can't have East India Dock under a penalty - this is much stronger than his last two outings. I will play the reverse forecast for cover.

Any 11/43.75 or bigger for Shadow Dance is good value.

14:25 Doncaster - Back Jonquil @ 5/42.25 2pt

It was tough not to be impressed with how Jonquil--5/42.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook--performed on his debut at Sandown, and that race looks like it will work out well.

While it's a bit of guesswork with the race form, he showed all the signs of being a potential top-notcher for Sir Michael Stoute. Despite being denied a clear passage, bumped and bashed, he put in some good sectional splits inside the final two furlongs.

He showed a good attitude and a bright turn of foot, suggesting he would get further in due course. The way he travelled through his race at Sandown was eye-catching, and he crossed the line with plenty to spare.

He looks the best of these on paper through those sectional splits, and he would have run out an even more impressive winner had he got a clear run at things. In the hope that further improvement will come, with Ryan Moore again in the saddle, he looks like a promising bet at evens or bigger to land this event.

15:00 Doncaster - Back Magnum Force @ 11/43.75 1pt

This is a hot race, and there's little doubt that Michael Appleby, who won it last year with Big Evs, has planned this for Big Mojo.

However, the time of the Julia Graves Roses Stakes at York won by Tropical Storm was brilliant, and Magnum Force (2nd) - 11/43.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was worthy of a considerable upgrade, so it gets a good vote of confidence to make amends for that near miss today.

The Ger Lyons runner was poorly drawn at York in stall 16, and it wasn't until the second furlong that he tacked over to the near side group with his rider, finally acknowledging the track bias. His rider left it late to make this move, but he was a big eye-catcher, manoeuvring through runners and chasing down the well-drawn winner, only to fail by a neck.

That looks like some of the strongest form on offer today and is undoubtedly the best speed figure in the race. With a more conventional set-up today and Colin Keane over for the ride, he looks like a Group winner in waiting.

There should be no draw or pace concerns in this race, and I expect him to land this at the expense of the brilliant filly Cot De Caza and Big Mojo, who, on a straight comparison through their Goodwood runs, have little to nothing between them.

11/43.75 or bigger is acceptable.

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