-
Back Persian Time to get it right the first time up
-
Chance Gary Moore's Juvenile in the opener
-
First Street is expected to fair much better in Listed contest
I am happy to take a swing in this race, and there's good reason to be slightly punty. Usuario Amigo at 6/42.50 is an exciting recruit from James Owen and is certainly respected for a yard that can ready one for a hurdle debut. However, he will need all the help he can get to see out this 2m trip for the first time, and that's evident by connections slapping on the hood for the first time. He is a speed horse on the flat, over seven furlongs, but there is a little encouragement that he will get this distance. Still, it's his hurdling debut, and he has been put in short in this market with the layers preparing for the next Burdett Road.
The only horse with hurdling experience is Model Approach, but he beat some inadequate rivals at Sedgefield last time at odds of 4/111.36, and the time was pedestrian, with that effort rated around 88 on the clock.
It's challenging to weigh up what Justice Roll - 16/54.20 on the Betfair Sportsbook - achieved on the flat in France. Still, I have him loosely running into the low 80s, and that's a possible angle with the market underestimating that level of form, and the Gary Moore yard has a good habit of picking up useful French Juveniles.
The yard has targeted this race in the past, and his debut hurdler looked just the jumping type when he readily landed his final start in France 139 days ago. There's encouragement for this sphere through his sire, Churchill, who has proven capable of producing jumpers, so I am happy to take a swing.
13:40 Kempton - Back Justice Roll
This looks like a good opportunity for Persian Time--10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook--to get off to a winning start. He perhaps has excuses for his final two outings, the last one of which came just seven days after his disappointing effort at Ayr. He can repeat his March course and distance-winning performance over Beau Balko with a fair record when fresh.
There is no good reason why Beau Balko will reverse that form, and Persian Time mixed it in some stronger races than this last term.
The six-year-old still has scope for further improvement in this sphere after just six outings and ten races in total under rules. Having shown a liking for right-handed tracks, with form figures outside of his latest excusable run of 1121, he could easily be the answer.
Frere d'Armes will be popular because of his reduced rating, but he had every opportunity to land two races this summer and was 23 lengths behind Guy at the back end of last season. He again flattered to deceive at Worcester in September, and 5/23.50 is short enough for one that hasn't scored since 2022.
Persian Time at least has scope for further improvement, and he is a very fair price at 3/14.00 or bigger to recommend.
15:25 Kempton - Back Persian Time
Rubaud is an interesting favourite today and has plenty in his favour. Right-handed, good ground, and Kempton seem his ideal conditions. He wouldn't want any more rain. However, the talk was that he would start over fences at Newton Abbot at the end of September. He would be the "ideal horse for the Henry Eighth at Sandown", was the quote, but connections now start him over hurdles, and his rider also mentioned the race at Wincanton that he won last year and that "he will go chasing at some point this season". I wonder if he has been schooling over fences this summer but not come up to scratch.
It may not have been ideal preparation for this, so expecting him, A1, may not be wise.
For that reason, I am going to take a chance on First Street - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who saw the backside of Rubaud a couple of times last term but is better off at the weights and has a bigger field and likely stronger pace scenario to suit.
He holds a fair record fresh, and any rain that falls will be positive for his chances. He could get this race set up for him, with Casa No Mento, Carrigeen Kampala, and possibly Authorized Art likely to give Rubaud hassle on the front. That may set this race up for First Street, who is likely to run into the 140s today.
Back the selection at 3/14.00 or bigger.
16:00 Kempton - Back First Street