Daryl Carter Tips

Cheltenham Festival Focus: The Dublin de-brief

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter says Kopek Des Bordes is the right Supreme favourite.

In week 15 of the Cheltenham Festival Focus, Daryl Carter reviews a cracking Dublin Racing Festival and considers what it tells us about the road to Prestbury Park...


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In week 15 of the Cheltenham Focus column, Daryl Carter rounds up the week, focusing his attention firmly on the Dublin Racing Festival with a de-brief for followers.

He praises novices Final Demand, Kopek Des Bordes, Majborough and more. He has no ante-post selections for week 15.


Dublin Racing Festival De-brief

Punters must learn to be patient when looking for Cheltenham Festival winning novices. Three weeks ago there were suggestions Willie Mullins had no novice hurdlers. Well buckle up because he now has two that will be very hard to beat.

The opening race of the Dublin Racing festival, the Nathaniel Lacy 2m6f Grade 1, was won in excellent style by Mullins' Final Demand. This race finally gave us the first stand-out novice for the season. Unbeaten in three career starts, he did things the challenging way by being posted on the inside amongst runners and showed a bright turn of foot to move off the rail, picked up the always prominent Wingmen, and cleared away at the finish.

Throughout the race, it was clear Final Demand was physically a class above his rivals, and must go down as a potential festival winner in waiting, with his rapid hurdling a significant asset.

As for the trip, he has too much class for the Albert Bartlett, and the Turners Novices Hurdle would look like an ideal race. At 11/43.75, he will meet the poorly priced The New Lion and likely fight out a finish with The Yellow Clay. I'd strongly favour the Mullins runner of the three on this evidence.

Majborough can challenge Sir Gino

Novice chaser, Majborough, was deeply impressive in the always informative Irsh Arkle Grade 1. He bolted up, having set a strong gallop throughout. Under identical ground description in 2023, El Fabiolo ran around six seconds quicker - to be taken with a pinch of salt. Still, despite some hairy leaps, Majborough was powerful from start to finish and recorded a fair time of 4.01.72 (three seconds quicker than the Ryanair Handicap Chase), although the Grade 1 Dublin Chase on Sunday on the ground that seemed to deteriorate recorded 3.57.90.

This now sets up an epic clash with Sir Gino in March, providing that one comes through his final test unscathed. Despite being Sir Gino's biggest fan, on this evidence, there is too much between their respective Arkle Chase prices of 8/111.73 and 9/43.25.


Stop giving Galopin free rein to gallop

Galopin Des Champs won the Irish Gold Cup Grade 1 Chase in emphatic style on Saturday to confirm himself top of the 3m chasing pack and cement his place at the head of the Cheltenham Gold Cup market at 4/61.67.

There's little doubt this is Willie Mullins's horse of a lifetime, but it doesn't look as impressive when you delve into it.

As the winner did at Christmas, he was allowed to dictate this race from the front and giving this classy horse a solo lead can only be described as defeatest by the jockey's behind. Galopin Des Champs is now 7-8 at Leopardstown, and he was never pestered or challenged for the lead at any point, leaving him in pole position to score.

The final circuit time of the 3m race was nearly nine seconds slower than Majborough's 2m victory 4.10.59 and five seconds slower than the 2m Handicap, but Galopin Des Champs came home from three out to the line quicker than the 2m Irish Arkle winner.

His quality's not doubted, but his rivals gave themselves little chance to dethrone him.

Mark Walsh seemed to give Fact To File a tactical teaching lesson following a fizzy display at Christmas, but it was baffling. Following this effort, he was rightly pushed out to 6/17.00 for the Gold Cup in March. To have the best chance of beating Galopin Des Champs, Walsh must be upside or ahead of him, not held up well off the lead, giving him lengths from the off, allowing him to dictate.

There must be stamina doubts about Fact To File, but he did well to make up significant ground in a race not run to suit hold-up performers, and those from off the gallop should be marked up.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup will be run at a more end-to-end gallop, which will expose any chinks in Fact To File's stamina. It will suit the runner-up Grangeclare West if he can put in a repeat but also give Galopin Des Champs a different task entirely.

I am not convinced Galopin Des Champs is the certainty the market makes him for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup success, although I admit challengers are hard to find.

He has an outstanding record at Leopardstown and has been handed these past two races. His rivals lacked the courage to take him on, and on the big day, you can be sure Paul Townend won't be allowed to dictate. Food for thought for those looking to take on Galopin Des Champs.

Fact To File to the Ryanair Chase at 2/13.00? It's a guessing game, but one suspects JP McManus will not want Corbetts Cross 20/121.00 to be his only chance of a Gold Cup winner. Anything can happen in a Gold Cup so I expect them to take their chance.


Double delight for ante-post followers

Ballyburn bounced back on Sunday to land the Novice Chase Grade 1 over 2m5f. A little free in the race's early stages, he jumped particularly well, pouring cold water on many pundits' doubts pre-race as he took the lead from Champ Kiely in ground that looked to have deteriorated from Saturday.

He relished this stamina test and end-to-end gallop, recording a 2m circuit time of 4.05.17 (more than five seconds faster than Galopin Des Champs on Saturday) and won going away at the line. He found plenty for pressure when asked, touching down after the last in second place to power home to win by five lengths. The further he went, the better he was and how much he found for pressure was a relief.

He will take a lot of beating at Cheltenham and is remarkably still available at 2/13.00 for the Brown Advisory when he could plausibly be an even money chance.

Our 25/126.00 Supreme Novice Hurdle selection Kopek Des Bordes delivered at the DRF, winning the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle Grade 1 on Sunday with ultimate ease and a bit of swagger. Mullins' five-year-old jumped far better than he did at Christmas and cleared away from his rivals to score by 13 lengths.

He easily cantered through this race and was another over the weekend to look far better than his rivals with his early speed and powerful stride length. He always wanted to go a yard quicker than the steady early gallop, and his natural pace took him to the lead at three out. He was outclassing his rivals at every stage.

Hampered at the second last by the loose Eastern Legend, he negotiated that well, took a powerful leap at the penultimate flight, cleared away on the bridle, and won hard held crossing the line.

A Supreme winner in waiting was the first thought and the market agreed cutting him to 6/42.50. Comparitive to the Irish Champion Hurdle, Kopek Des Bordes' race was run more evenly and in line with the early gallop of the Mares Handicap and the later handicap. But he showed a high cruising speed, a smart turn of foot and a great attitude.

He recorded around four length quicker time than the handicap winner McLaurey from three out to the line, identical to the Mares Handicap winner Vischio three to the line, and 31.4 lengths quicker than a cantering State Man. McLaurey and Vischio were all out and all three recorded a slower circuit time than Kopek Des Bordes by at least eight lengths.

The third, Good And Clever, has run to 125 and the runner-up into around 136 (given 144 by the Irish Handicapper). It's easy to give Kopek Des Bordes a rating of 151 on this evidence - the Irish Handicaper went for 157 which looks rather high!

He ticks every box to suggest he can go on to Cheltenham Festival glory. Along with Final Demand, they are the only two Novices who have now jumped off the page and achieved just over the 150 rating benchmark I look for.

The speed and strong finish the Supreme Novice Hurdle requires should really suit him. The talk of the Turners 9/25.50 from folk on Twitter has little to no substance, and connections see no reason to step up in trip - something I concur with strongly.

State Man, Lossiemouth and Gaelic Warrior will find it tough at Cheltenham

State Man and Lossiemouth's Irish Champion Hurdle clash ended in an anti-climax, with the mare falling mid-race. They went a hell of an early gallop, and at the time of Lossiemouth's fall, they were 6.91 seconds ahead of the Novice Hurdle winner Kopek Des Bordes, equal to 27.64 lengths.

State Man looked weary from there on and, from four out to the finish, Kopek Des Bordes ran 9.23 seconds quicker, equal to 36 lengths on the bridle.

State Man didn't do enough to consider himself a Champion Hurdle hope despite this victory, and he still looks on the downgrade. After Lossiemouth's departure, his jockey Townend's body language suggested he didn't have an awful lot left, and his 7/18.00 makes zero appeal.

Lossiemouth must now bounce back from this heavy fall (her first ever), and her 5/16.00 also doesn't appeal. The Champion Hurdle looks like Constitution Hill's to lose.

Solness made all to land the Grade 1 Dublin Chase backing up his Christmas victory, and he took no prisoners, settling a relentless gallop to take his rivals off their feet. El Fabiolo was an early faller, and Gaelic Warrior had no answer, only managing a 12-length third, having been weak in the market.

The winner looks like an improver and will likely be overlooked for Cheltenham, but this speed figure suggests he belongs at this level. Solness is now 12/113.00 for the Champion Chase.

The market hasn't reacted negatively towards Gaelic Warrior's performance knowing he bounced out of this meeting last year to score in the Arkle at Cheltenham. He was pushed to 11/26.50, but even on his Arkle performance speed figure, he has plenty to find with Jonbon, who was cut into 10/111.91.

Even Gaelic Warrior's backers must consider he was a Stayers Hurdle favourite last season, and he is likely to be seen to the best effect over further.

The cries of an unsatisfactory ride by Townend are unfounded. He couldn't go the early gallop and was 3.85 seconds behind at the second last. He crossed the line 3.08 seconds behind Solness, making a little impression.


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