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Mundi mania justified?
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10/111.00 chance covered for the Turners
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I may be mad, but I am backing this 12/113.00 Champion Hurdle hope
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Reader's questions answered
Watch this week's Weighed In...
In week 12 of the Cheltenham Focus column, with little action for Daryl Carter to round up, he takes stock of the divisions and reflects on week one, where I gave initial thoughts on the season ahead. You can read those here. Daryl also adds a further ante-post selection to his list, answers readers' questions, and tackles Mundi mania...
Novice Hurdler's
I advised to keep an open mind regarding the Champion Bumper form in week one. The runner-up, Romeo Coolio, is the only horse from that race shorter than 25/126.00 in the Supreme Novice Hurdle market. He sets the standard, having run to around 145 on his most recent outing, and is priced correctly given that he is an intended runner, and his form and figures add up in a field that has yet to offer much resistance. However, I doubt he has the progression to move into a high 150-160 horse to win at the Cheltenham Festival.
It's January, and Supreme candidates look thin on the ground. Kopek Des Bordes is one horse I am adamant we have not seen the best of. He was mentioned in week one as a horse to be high on any shortlist for the Novice Hurdle scene. There was plenty of promise to take from his hurdling debut despite his jumping lacking fluency.
However, he attacked his hurdles and got his landing gear out in good time, and to make the mistakes he did and still win on his hurdling/seasonal debut marked him down as a potential stand-out horse. That race was one of the deepest Maiden Hurdle contests we have seen this year, and further progression will surely see him at the top of a novice tree before March if he is as good as I think he is.
It's tempting to be swept up by horses making late seasonal debuts, but history says we have seen the Supreme Novice winner by December 26th, so the answer is out there. Horses that will be of interest include Funiculi Funicula, but one suspects this is a below-average year.
Step forward, Salvator Mundi?
Salvator Mundi - now 4/15.00 needs close examination following his Grade 2 Moscow Flyer victory. There were many positives and negatives to this performance, and the pre-race from book suggested a run into the low 130s would win this. Heavily punted into 8/151.53. He was on his toes beforehand as they circled at the start, but he didn't let backers down despite having every opportunity to duck out and throw in the towel.
He was very keen early in the race - a trait he had shown in the Triumph Hurdle last season - and was under rigid restraint in a slowly run affair in which his rider post-race comments of "I would say it was going to be hard to be impressive," ring true. Still, Paul Townend must have held every confidence in his mount as he was happy to educate Salvator Mundi to get him to race more efficiently. As a result, his jumping suffered in the main.
To say he is a poor jumper would be a mistake, as he has shown he can jump well enough in previous outings. He took a moment to engage top gear between the second last and final flights, but his response inside the final furlong under two taps of the stick was encouraging. From flag-fall, it was evident in his stride pattern that compared to his race-day rivals, he was a class above. To overcome the run of the race marked him down as a promising novice, with improvement almost a given.
However, he splits opinion, and it's easy to be critical of this performance.
There's no form substance despite some sexy, unexposed types in the field, but none had done anything more than equal to a rating of 125. The clock doesn't back up the performance even if the slow run circuit time (They took seven seconds to pass the starter) is considered and the three-to-finish time is examined. An almost identically run race was the following Maiden Hurdle won by Willie Mullins' Kappa Jy Pyke, who had been beaten on debut by Sky Lord (4th to Salvator Mundi by four lengths).
Salvator Mundi ran three out to the line in 59.84 seconds compared to Kappa Jy Pyke's 1.00.37. Even if we consider the two out to the line times, Salvator Mundi was only 0.30 seconds quicker than the 2m4f Handicap winner Londonofficecalling (102) and after such a slow circuit, you would have liked to have seen more speed.
Salvator Mundi clocked an identical time to Kappa Jy Pyke from the first hurdle to the line. I've seen tweets that have compared the race times over the previous years, that would be very wrong to do. Salvator Mundi's Moscow Flyer was run over 2m1f - a furlong further than seven of the last ten renewals and half a furlong further than Mystical Power and the 2020 winner Andy Dufresne. You also can't compare given the ground and the differing layout of the hurdles over the years.
Even if forgetting the time element, you could argue that seeing a hood and a tongue-tie on a novice hurdler screams potential issues. Slade Steel was the first horse in at least ten years to wear any sort of headgear (tongue-tie) and win the Supreme Novice. Patrick Mullins, following the race, quickly mentioned that better ground would help his breathing - this may coincide with the message I received to say Salvator Mundi had a wind operation before the race.
As for a rating, it's exceptionally difficult to give this more than 137 as there are no strong form lines or speed figures to warrant a higher mark. That would leave him some way short of a typical Supreme Novice winner even if allowing for improvement.
However, this was his first start in 242 days, in bad ground, and in a slowly run affair having been keen and a poor jumper. Everything was against him. He is clearly a promising individual, and the camp's confidence in him is well-touted. He is likely to be Paul Townend's choice for the Supreme Novice Hurdle (he may go straight there), prompting today's ante-post selection.
The overwhelming feeling is that he is a proper horse but hasn't had the opportunity to prove it, with the Moscow Flyer not set up to run a strong number. With the lack of depth in the novice hurdle division, he could easily go off a short-priced favourite, and there is plenty of scope for improvement and this was a positive return.
English horses may have piqued
No one would have predicted the Turners' Novice Hurdle to be dominated by English horses at the start of the season. The New Lion 11/43.75 and Potters Charm 7/18.00 are too short; this column has commented on why over the past few weeks. JP McManus' purchase of The New Lion does make me question whether he has any other candidate for this race.
Kaid D'authie is the obvious one and the only green and gold horse in the top half of the betting; still, I suspect he will be in the Supreme Novice on the back of this high-money buy. The Yellow Clay has done little wrong, but like Romeo Coolio, he is good but not great. He is another running to the low-mid 140s, but winning this race typically requires a performance in the mid-150s.
The New Lion, for example, has run to around 144 (at best). So, who will stamp their authority on this race in the coming weeks? Perhaps Final Demand 16/117.00 could throw down a marker. He is in the Nathaniel Lacey at the DRF (2m6f), and he was impressive over Christmas at Limerick, albeit in a poor race that recorded a slow time.
Still, he clocked the fastest sectionals of the day in that contest and could yet register his interest. The Turner's has an open look where anything running to 150 should be backed (nothing has yet). Nothing stands out, which is why the market favours the British horses, but there is time and plenty of horses open to further improvement while the Brits may have piqued.
Novice Chase division
The Novice Chase division is more straightforward. We said last year's novice hurdlers were a weak crop and that Ballyburn would "win wherever he goes". The first part of the statement is still valid, but the second is not. Therefore, it's no surprise that the former Juveniles dominate the Arkle picture. Running to 160 plus will typically see you land a Grade 1 Novice Chase, and Sir Gino is the only novice to have achieved that, with his debut at Kempton in the Wayward Lad.
That performance would have won most Arkles, but he is in pole position as the horse to record a 170 RPR rating like Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo the last twice, as well as Shishkin and Footpad before them. The only other horse capable of running such a high number in the Arkle field could be fellow five-year-old Majborough, and these two can set up a fierce clash, provided they both pass their subsequent assignments. Rightly or wrongly, those are the only two horses I focused on for the Arkle in March.
As for the Brown Advisory, I think Ballyburn - who has always been advised would go three miles in this column - is an outstanding price at 7/24.50. He is crying out for a step up in distance and lost nothing in defeat on good ground at Kempton to Sir Gino. He ran well, and I am shocked that many people have now left him behind. At the start of the season, he was in demand as free hot doughnuts, and one defeat that has now forced him over his correct trip should be celebrated.
As mentioned, the novice hurdlers from last season were of an average standard, and he was streets ahead. Nothing is coming out of the woodwork in this division like a Sir Gino or Majborough unless you count the "will they or won't they go" horse Impaire Et Passe. In this division, The Jukebox Man has his chance along with Dancing City and Martin Pipe winner Better Days Ahead, but they have scraped a ceiling rating of 152 and are far off a typical standard set by the winner of this race in recent years.
Of those mentioned, I can see why Better Days Ahead is popular, and he should relish a stiff test at Cheltenham, while Jango Baie is high on the shortlist for something. Still, when this field cuts up, I'd be shocked if Ballyburn wasn't a short-priced favourite following victory at the DRF.
There is plenty of water to go under the bridge before we can assess Novices' handicap ratings given by the BHA for the Jack Richards Handicap Chase over 2m4f. Many horses are interesting, and current 8/19.00 favourite Jango Baie is at the top of the list. He is a Grade 1 horse, but he will have another run before the festival and is already rated 152. No Flies On Him - who beat Jango Baie in his point-to-point - has certainly been trained with handicaps in mind, along with Answer To Kayf, but we will get stuck into this in the coming weeks.
Open Hurdlers
The Champion hurdle division still revolves around Constitution Hill, and market vibes will be scrutinised before the Cheltenham Festival. He wasn't at his brilliant best at Kempton, which left some question marks given his troubles in the past year. That was the first time he had looked beatable. For three parts of the race, the old Consitution Hill was there, but he wasn't inside the final two furlongs and given his wind issues previously, there may be a reason to take him on. Perhaps that was just a lack of fitness?
I am not convinced by Brighterdaysahead, even if the figures suggest she ran a massive race at Leopardstown. She was seen to best effect there, and it's a dangerous game to predict the same showing at Cheltenham, where she was poor last year. I'd have my reservations for now, particularly as she never even clocked the fastest furlong on the card at any point during the race - that honour went to the handicapper Park Of Kings and then July Flower before we got to Brighterdaysahead, who only dipped below 14 seconds once.
Lossiemouth is a 2m4f horse in my eye. Still, her form had at least some useful substance, and she could be underestimated with an excellent record at Cheltenham if it turns into a test, but there is little doubt in my mind that she would be better given a true stamina ask over 2m4f.
The fly in the ointment in this race is Anzadam, who came off much better on the speed figures than Lossiemouth when impressive in November and is an entirely unknown quantity.
While this race looks like a strong one on paper, there are doubts about those at the top of the market and Anzadam - who holds an entry in the Irish Champion Hurdle - could quickly become a serious challenger to Constitution Hill. He needs to improve, but he popped the eye out at Fairyhouse with his dominant victory, and the form was given a slight boost by the runner-up next time, going close to July Flower at Leopardstown. Still, only fresh air was second to him that day.
He covered the final four furlongs quicker than Lossiemouth, who ran in a similarly slow race in the Hatton's Grace and clocked an eye-catching 12.24 penultimate furlong. To put that into perspective, Constitution Hill's fastest furlong at Kempton was 12.64 and Lossiemouth's 13.00. However, Constitution Hill did do a 12.05 in the 2023 Christmas Hurdle.
Donnelly's other horse, State Man, has had his chance at the Champion, and although he has proven the wise guy's each-way bet of the race, I couldn't have him on my mind. I would expect Anzadam to take a higher order than him. He left a deep impression on me, and I can't wait to see what he has under the bonnet when asked for maximum effort.
Granted, this selection does need Constitution Hill not to be at his best in March, but he is no certainty to turn up given his fragility.
Anzadam was super impressive in France and could be very special and while he needs to prove himself outside of his own age group, I was really taken with him. In a year where questions loom over the top three in this market, Anzadam can play a big role.
Back Anzadam to win the Champion Hurdle
The Stayers Hurdle division looks wide open. I'd be keen to oppose Teahupoo 7/42.75, and confidence remains in Langer Dan.
Open Chasers
Now that we have seen the first entry stage of the Gold Cup, Champion Chase and Ryanair, these races have become more transparent. Galopin Des Champs dominates the Gold Cup market, and offering a serious opponent is challenging. Fact File would look like a good bet for Ryanair, but I suspect they want to have a chance at the Gold Cup although the DRF will confirm this, but he needs to settle. King George winner Banbridge is ground-dependent, and should he line up, he would be of interest, but backing ante-post is a no-no with him.
Galopin Des Champs is so clear of these rivals that his EVENS price tag looks appealing.
The Ryanair is a bit more of a tricky puzzle to solve. It's wide open, but Il Est Francais turning up here would take plenty of my cash. It's a division that features horses with multiple options, so a waiting game is advised for now, and the same can be said for the Champion Chase.
Market Movers

Viewers Questions
Fortunately, I have worked with some outstanding Betfair people who automatically make the list! However, as a punter, it must be the following three. Willie Mullins would be number one, as I find the man fascinating. There's no better insider when it comes to Cheltenham! Paul Townend who rides all of those outstanding Closutton animals and is a good talker. Lastly, Johnny Dineen for the crack. I'd love to be there when he tells Willie and Paul their horse has no chance!
Yes, Fugitif. He should hold good claims in the Plate, but if the race was on the old course, I wouldn't have him on my mind. He finds the second last coming too quickly on that sharper track and always hits it! Take a look.
Not so much in open company, but Novices certainly. The bar I set for Novice Hurdlers is my rating of 152 and chasers 160. I can't consider betting them for a Festival race if they haven't reached that or look like they can. At the time of writing, none of the novice hurdlers is above the bar, and both the Supreme and Turners look like below-average renewals, but perhaps Salvator Mundi and Kopek Des Bordes hold the most potential.
The chasers, Sir Gino, surpassed 160, Ballyburn 158 and, Majborough 154, The Jukebox Man 152, Better Days Ahead 152, with the Arkle division looking like an up-to-scratch renewal, but the Browns are slightly below par.
It's hard to understand Harp, but I've always thought Ballyburn wants the three-mile trip!
I don't think Leau Du Sud is good enough to win graded races at the festival. He is a mid-150s horse, and I can't see him getting to 170.
I have a couple, but the shortest-priced one is Teahupoo. He was poor in the Hatton's Grace and isn't coming into this year in the best form. On the Hatton's Grace run, he should be at a much, much bigger price.
Mullins and Townend. Backing that pair across the week will see you do alright.
There are a few, but the one that baffles me the most is the Challow Hurdle. Trainers should send their horses to the Albert Bartlett following that race, as it can be a gruelling test of stamina, but they continue to go down the Turners Novice Hurdle route.
You don't have to think Salvator Mundi will win the Supreme Novice Hurdle to take evasive action, but you do have to believe that he will be Paul Townend's ride. Therefore, I want to cover Kopek Des Bordes in this column for the Turners Novices Hurdle at a very fair 10/111.00.
The case was made for him in week nine; you can read it here. A victory at the DRF will certainly see the selection towards the top of the betting for both races, and he is bred to appreciate a move up in distance. At the same time with Jasmin Des Vaux's flop, Willie Mullins is light on Turners horses.
This column advised Kopek Des Bordes for the Supreme Novice Hurdle at 25/126.00. While backing for a second race is not something I like to do, you can double the advised stake at 10/111.00 to ensure you get around 6/17.00 for any race instead of 9/25.50.
Back Kopek Des Bordes to win the Turners Novice Hurdle