Cheltenham Festival Focus: Lossiemouth v Sir Gino examined as Champion Hurdle shapes up

• We learned nothing new about Lossiemouth

• Sir Gino excites

• Strong Leader enhances his Stayer's Hurdle claims

In week six, Daryl Carter rounds up the notable action relevant to the Cheltenham Festival in a brilliant past "week that was" and dives into a changing Champion Hurdle picture. He also examines the market movers and highlights this coming week's action. Daryl holds fire on any ante-post bets this week.

Iberico Lord made a winning chase debut at Kempton last Monday. It's hard to get excited over this performance, having not needed to match his smart hurdle form as main market rival Gidleigh Park suffering a second episode of atrial fibrillation, resulting in him being pulled up after just five fences.

Nicky Henderson's representative was sticky at his fences early on and held up at the rear of the field but ultimately ran out an easy winner. He didn't look straightforward here and was clumsy, landing on all fours. It would be suprising if he had a serious role in an 33/134.00 Arkle. He may be one for the middle distance handicap at the festival if he can brush up his jumping (currently rated 144).

On Tuesday at Market Rasen, it was tough not to be impressed by Stuart Edmunds' Marsh Wren, who had finished third in the Mares Chase at the festival last season and bolted up on her first outings over 3m.

She is highly progressive, only has six lengths to find with limerick Lace and Dino Blue, who dominate the Mares Chase ante-post market again, and she could be a player for all she is nine at the turn of the year. 14/115.00 For the Mares Chase is very fair should she continue her upward curve. As for the rest, Apple Away looks to have reached her ceiling on this evidence.

Regent strolls to victory

Paul Nicholls' £660,000 purchase, Regents Stroll, made a smooth hurdles debut at Newbury on Friday to comfortably beat last year's Aintree Bumper third Good And Clever. A mistake when down on his nose and almost at a standstill at two out didn't stop him from running out a very impressive winner at the line. The time figure was nothing of note, but he won as he liked and took a pull, crossing the finishing line. He came home eight lengths slower than the 3m Long Distance winner Strong Leader on the circuit time and around 13 lengths slower from three out to the finish.

However, having won with so much in hand, it's unwise to get caught up in the time of the race. A fascinating prospect and a very generous 25/126.00 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and 14/115.00 for the Turner Novices' Hurdle, his next start is eagerly awaited.

Strong Leader won the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on Friday and showed a different side to himself. Typically seen finishing fast off a strong pace, this muddling race with a slow early gallop could have easily caught him out. He fended off two previous Cheltenham Festival winners as he showed gears in the home straight to run out a convincing winner, scoring for the first time on a seasonal return and soft ground and clocking the fastest 3-f time on the card.

He looks like a more mature horse this season and must go down as Britain's leading Stayers Hurdle contender and high on any punter's shortlist. He is now a very acceptable 8/19.00 chance for the Stayers' Hurdle behind Teahupoo.

This wasn't the ideal set-up for Langer Dan, who has shown his best self in the spring, but encouragement can be taken that he finished only narrowly slower than the winner from the back of the last. He must be considered a player in the Stayers Hurdle, but punters may want to wait for him to be beaten again for an even bigger price than his current 33/134.00.

Opec was a relentless winner of the Fillies' Juvenile Listed Hurdle over stablemate and more fancied Ambiente Amigo. This was a good performance from the front, and despite kicking hurdles out of the way on the circuit, she recorded a fair time. She was most impressive, setting a good gallop from the get-go and finishing with running left, beating six previous winners, but this is not Triumph Hurdle territory for all she looks like a high 120's horse.

Jukebox Man allowed to play his own tunes

The Jukebox Man won the John Francome Novices' Chase at Newbury on Friday by two lengths over Masaccio. There were disappointments here. Captain Teague ran no sort of race, and I got the feeling from an interview earlier in the week with Harry Cobden that they are unsure about him in this sphere (just a feeling mind). Johnnywho was given a poor ride by Jonjo O'Neill Jr., is hard to defend on hold-up horses at the moment.

In fact, it was a poorly judged ride by many of those who allowed Ben Pauling's runner free reign on the front. The Jukebox Man comparative to the following handicap over the same course and distance, would have been last in the handicap jumping first in back straight, last at ninth, last at the final flight in back straight (3 lengths between handicap field), last at the cross fence, and only quickened on from from three out having held a big advantage for much of the race.

Still, Paulings's winner was straightforward. He made all the running and saw it out well despite tiring late on and drifting left following some exuberant jumping. He may find a few across the Irish Sea too good, but 12/113.00 for the Brown Advisory is fair. The runner-up, Masaccio, is crying out for three miles and did remarkably well given his racing position. He looks one to follow. Still, this performance from The Jukebox Man will be overbet next time.

On Saturday at Fairyhouse, Impaire Et Passe won his Beginners Chase over 2m5f in good style. He took a lead, jumped well in the main (left at times), and skipped clear on the run in. Willie Mullins has used this race in recent years for staying types. Monkfish, Carefully Selected, I Am Maximus all ran over three miles or further at the Cheltenham Festival, so the Brown Advisory 16/117.00 could easily look the obvious route. He was rated 163 over hurdles, and this was a promising start for the six-year-old. You can only be positive about him, and age is on his side, unlike previous triers such as Thyme Hill.

On Sunday, Caldwell Potter made a promising start for Paul Nicholls at Carlisle on chase debut. He jumped well, slightly left, but was relentless from start to finish. He doesn't look like a natural chaser to my eye as he hurdled towards every fence, and I would love to see him in a Stayers' Hurdle one day, but this was straightforward at 2/111.18. He has plenty going for him, but he is best watched on his next start.

Keep the faith with Willie's beaten runners

The Triumph Hurdle favourite Willy De Houelle was beaten at odds of 1/41.25 for Willie Mullins and dethroned at the top of the Festival market. He shaped very well for much of a well-run race and stuck in there doing the best of those on the gallop.

Ultimately, he was pipped at the finish by one ridden more patiently, and the sectionals suggest he blew up between the second last and final hurdle but ran on strongly again at the line. 16/117.00 for the Triumph Hurdle looks like a little overreaction by the market, and if you already have a docket, I wouldn't be too concerned about this performance. The winner, Naturally Nimble, is the same price, but flattered here. Willy De Houella may be the beaten horse this week that turns into a Festival winner.

The once Supreme Novice Hurdle favourite Romeo Coolio was turned over at odds-on in the Royal Bond. This was disappointing as it didn't look like a strong renewal. He is now best watched.

FireFox was the next of Gordon Elliott's to be turned over on a day to forget for the trainer on Sunday at Fairyhouse. He jumped and travelled well but was fought off in a finish of inches amongst three other rivals. He is crying out for a strongly run affair, and the only time he has had one was when an unlucky third in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, so the Arkle 14/115.00 may be the correct race for him. Whether he is quite good enough remains up for debate. He seems to find a way to get beaten and patience is wearing thin. A top-class horse should be able to overcome things like pace bias, but he can't.

Koktail Brut was introduced at 14/115.00 for the Champion Bumper, who had landed the finale on the Fairyhouse card on Sunday. This was ok, but nothing to be too excited about.

Champion Hurdle picture changes, but Lossiemouth had optimal conditions to look fantastic

The Champion Hurdle picture had a dramatic change of look come Sunday at 3 p.m. Saturday scorer Sir Gino landed an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, and Lossiemouth followed up on Sunday with a brilliant visual performance to land the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse.

Lossiemouth was cut into 6/42.50 favourite for the Champion Hurdle with the Betfair Sportsbook. However, was this as good as it visually looked? The first thing people will say is I am bias, but we work on facts and figures in this column.

Wow!

Lossiemouth is all class under @PTownend in the Grade 1 Hatton's Grace Hurdle @WillieMullinsNH @BarOneRacing | @Fairyhouse pic.twitter.com/8nERH6E7x7

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 1, 2024

Lossiemouth won with her head in her chest. However, she was undoubtedly seen in the best possible light thanks to the dawdling gallop and allowed to outspeed last year's Stayers Hurdle winner and two fellow rivals in a field that all, bar her, had won over three miles.

The 2m circuit time was around 28 lengths slower than the previous day's 2m winner, Anzadam 40/141.00, who threw his hat into the Champion Hurdle market.

Lossiemouth's circuit time was slower than Washington's Listed Handicap Hurdle win in the following race. In fact, Teahupoo, on this day, would have been well held by Washington had you picked him up and put him in the handicap race, so this was nowhere near the best of the Gordon Elliot horse who was once thought to want heavy ground and three miles.

Without Lossiemouth's presence, had the result been Teahupoo beaten by the 144-rated Beacon Edge by five lengths, we would have said Teahupoo was operating around a stone below his rating (163) and asking questions about his 5/23.50 price in the Stayers' Hurdle - we should still ask!

Teahupoo's has run to the low 150s at very best on this occasion, and giving seven pounds to Lossiemouth was an impossible task on unfavoured ground in a race that favoured speed. In turn, Lossiemouth has only had to run to 150 - the same rating she ran to in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last year. Lossiemouth's jumping sometimes was sporadic, but she is a speedy filly. However, her three-out-to-finish time was only narrowly (0.86 secs) quicker than Anzadam on the previous day and seven lengths quicker than Washington (four from the back of the last to the line).

Still, the Willie Mullins star mare is now 9 out of 10, and her ceiling is unknown. Her followers have every right to be excited about her Champion Hurdle prospects. Still, more demanding tasks undoubtedly await, and it's hard to say from the figures that this was an improvement with nothing new learned.

We enjoyed that! Sir Gino cruises around @NewcastleRaces under @NdeBoinville before quickening away from his rivals to give us a 9th Fighting Fifth Very well done to the Donnellys. pic.twitter.com/0l7v9bu6sC

-- Nicky Henderson (@sevenbarrows) November 30, 2024

Sir Gino is 4/15.00 for the Champion Hurdle following his Fighting Fifth romp, and you could easily use a similar Lossiemouth form case to suggest he has only run into the mid-high 150s.

In turn, Sir Gino has at least done a striking time figure in this victory, quicker than anything else on the card and the second quickest Fighting Fifth run in the last ten years (ground differs), including Epatante under the same ground description. This was a well-run, no hiding place circuit time, and Sir Gino still looked like they were not going quickly enough for him.

It's tough to be visually impressive at a track with three hurdles in the home straight, and Sir Gino will be seen to have an excellent effect again at Cheltenham when allowed to kick on from two out and open up. Interestingly, Sir Gino's Newcastle victory was only given a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 156, with only Epatante had been given lower than that in the last 10 years (they gave Not So Sleepy 158, so take that with a pinch of salt).

Brighterdaysahead beats State Man in the Morgiana Hurdle! pic.twitter.com/NyDAHcO7EF

-- Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) November 23, 2024

After the weekend, both Lossiemouth and Sir Gino have work to do to elevate themselves into Champion Hurdle contenders with both performances in the 150s (takes a high 160 run to win a typical Champion Hurdle), but both have an unknown height to their ability.

State Man 9/25.50 and Constitution Hill 9/25.50 still set a standard. However, State Man is likely not at his best at Cheltenham, and Consitution Hill comes with risks attached at the moment, so the market has called this correct, although Sir Gino could and should be the same price as Lossiemouth, but neither should be as short as 6/42.50.

Market Movers

Whats On This Week

On Tuesday, Champion Bumper fifth Fishery Lane is among the potential runners at Clonmel in a maiden hurdle.

There are two high-quality days at Sandown on Friday and Saturday, including the Betfair Tingle Creek, where Jonbon will look to cement his Champion Chase claims.

The Kauto Star Novices Chase on Saturday is always interesting for Cheltenham prospects.

Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.