Cheltenham Festival Focus: Betfair's 33/1 for Stayer's Hurdle contender is a gift

• Top-price with Betfair for the Stayers Hurdle must be taken

• L'Eau du Sud's Arkle chances assessed

• Read those and more in Daryl's weekly round-up of all the notable racing performances

In week seven of the Cheltenham Focus column, Daryl Carter rounds up the notable action relevant to the Cheltenham Festival. In what was a very informative seven days Daryl dives into the Arkle picture, examines the market movers and highlights this coming week's action. Daryl adds a 33/134.00 ante-post selection...

Two Festival contenders emerge at Clonmel

At Clonmel on Monday, C'Est Ta Chance improved significantly from his bumper form to land his 2m3f Maiden Hurdle in the quickest time of the three other races over the course and distance on the day. Although this was a very winnable opportunity, he may be worth monitoring as a dark horse for the Albert Bartlett division 40/141.00, having done his best work at the finish.

Staying at Clonmel, the following 2m3f Maiden Hurdle went to Willie Mullins' Karafon, who impressed with a strong finishing effort but didn't need to improve on what he achieved as a Juvenile when fifth in the Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz at Leopardstown last Xmas. He is 33/134.00 for the Supreme.

Bill Joyce and Handstands the ones to note from Friday at Sandown

At Haydock on Wednesday, Dan Skelton's Royal Infantry scored with the minimum of fuss over a highly regarded Anthony Honeyball runner Crest Of Fortune. He controlled this race from the front in testing conditions and stayed on strongly in what was a straightforward task. He will likely be found out over 2m and move up in distance. He looks like a stayer and may fall short at the top table.

At Sandown on Friday, useful 88-rated flat performer Hot Fuss scored with the minimum of fuss and could be a live contender for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap should Tom Dascombe look to mind him from here on out. He certainly boosted Triumph Hurdle favourite East India Dock's Wincanton victory.

Bill Joyce won the Grade 2 Winter Novices Hurdle at Sandown on Friday in taxing conditions. His only defeat came in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, and he won this with some authority. He relished conditions, and his grabby action suggests he will be seen to the best effect when the ground is testing at the highest level. The time here was good considering the ground, and he looks every inch an Albert Bartlett player, and 33/134.00 is very generous from the Sportsbook. The only concern is his connections. They never seem to have a plan with their horses, and the post-race comments of "is a chaser in the making, so anything he does now is just a bonus. We'll enjoy today and just think about what comes next later" should ensure ante-post punters tread with caution. Nevertheless, he is one for a shortlist.

Quebecois (second to Bill Joyce) also needs three miles, and he could be another to head to the Albert Bartlett. Before this race, he was considered for the Challow Hurdle, but those plans have now been shelved.

Handstands won the Esher Novices' Chase in good style (won by Stay Away Fay last year), and he looks destined for Grade 1 company on the back of this. This was a strong field full of potential improvers, and he is now 40/141.00 for the Brown Advisory, which is very fair. It's worth remembering that Stay Away Fay was 7/18.00 after his victory in the same race last year, and Handstands did this with a bit of swagger. Another one for the shortlist and a must-watch next time out.

Navan winner Jasmin still needs to convince me

At Navan on Saturday, Champion Bumper winner Jasmin De Vaux won his 2m Maiden Hurdle, beating The Enabler in comfortable style. His jumping left something to be desired, hesitant, putting in extra strides and jumping out to the right for much of the race, which was masked by being posted on the inside of runners.

It was notable that Paul Townend had his left hand down when he arrived on the final flight, which should have concerned his backers. He is not the biggest and was dwafted by the runner-up on the run-in (above) but showed a bright turn of foot. The time on the card was not the best. We need to see him again before any conclusions can be drawn and 14/115.00 for the Supreme is not of interest yet.

The Yellow Clay won the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle on Saturday, but he beat very little. He has been confirmed as being targeted at the Albert Bartlett 12/113.00, but he will need to better this by some distance to land that race. As things stand, he is a vulnerable festival favourite in a typically tough race to find the winner.

It's all visual with Atlantique

Ile Atlantique (right) seemed to win in good style on his chasing debut at Navan (2m4f) on Saturday, landing the race by nine lengths over last year's Martin Pipe second Waterford Whispers. He made all the running and jumped clean and well for the entire race. However, when comparing this race to the previous Listed Handicap over the same course and distance, it looks far from as impressive. Not at any point in the race was Ile Atlantique ahead of the Listed field; in fact, he would have been last in that race throughout and finished no better than ninth crossing the line.

He was slower than Sa Fureur (left) from three out to the finish, so rating this performance higher than 140 is difficult. However, it's unwise to suggest he could not improve on this as he looks tailor-made for fences and may be better once tackling three miles. Still, it's worth remembering his tame finishing efforts last term when asked to fight, and he didn't rid that memory here making all the running unchallenged. One to watch, but his 16/117.00 for the Arkle is of no interest on this performance. As for one or two in behind, No Flies On Him caught the eye under tender handling and maybe a handicap plot.

Not much to learn from Jonbon's win

Jonbon turns up and does his thing, but this was a weak renewal of the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase on Saturday at Sandown. The runner-up Quilixios - who would be around 50/151.00 in the actual Champion Chase - had been tried over three miles last season, and the third, JPR One, is only a low 150-rated performer at best, despite his trainer's enthusiasm.

We learned nothing new about Jonbon other than his consistency is remarkable. Could be his year to land the Champion Chase 5/23.50? Let's see what Gaelic Warrior can do, but he looks the most reliable for it.

At Cork on Sunday, Minella Sixo was beaten comfortably in the Grade 3 Novice Hurdle over three miles. We have been keeping track of the Potter's Charm form lines in this column, and again, for the third consecutive run, Minella Sixo has run below 125. He looked very slow here, and the Potter's Charm Cheltenham form has a very windy look to it, with the fifth also recently beaten 17 lengths. We will continue to monitor.

Gavin Cromwell's Only By Night comfortably landed the Mares Novice Grade 2 Chase at Cork on Sunday. She beat Nara, who had clocked an excellent time on her penultimate start and did it very easily. She has the size and scope to make into a smart chaser. She is now a very fair 12/113.00 for the Mares Chase. However, the concern is that her form tailed off in the spring of last year.

Energumene was cut to 5/16.00 for the Champion Chase following his nine-length return victory at Cork on Sunday, but that doesn't tell the story of the race. The Willie Mullins runner jumped violently right at a couple, which interfered with Banbridge on the final flight, causing him to fall. Energumene ran out a comfortable winner at the line, but this wasn't the dominant force of old. The Clarence House is reportedly next on the agenda, which will tell more. Banbridge is 33/134.00 for the Champion Chase, which is tempting. Ferny Hollow took a heavy fall when making headway, and he is 66/167.00 for the Champion Chase.

Djelo took the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Sunday in fine style. He is now 20/121.00 for the Ryanair but looks more like an Aintree horse at this stage.

L'Eau du Sud is on the right track, but Arkle "winner in waiting" is a step too far

Dan Skelton's L'Eau du Sud wasn't as visually impressive as an Ile Atlantique or a 170-rated Jonbon this weekend. Still, he put up a better performance on the clock than the former and only narrowly slower than the latter when landing the Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown.

L'Eau du Sud retains his unbeaten record over fences with success in the G1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase @Sandownpark | @DSkeltonRacing | @harryskelton89 pic.twitter.com/0mE2hlyart

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 7, 2024

The six-year-old crossed the line around eight lengths slower than Jonbon winning the Tingle Creek. There was no hiding place in this novice chase in harsh conditions as they matched the pace of the Tingle Creek field through the best part of the contest.

Despite a few sticky jumps at the second last and last, the Skelton runner was only narrowly slower from the pond fence to the line than Jonbon. L'Eau du Sud has comfortably performed on the clock close to 158 on this evidence despite being handed the races lowest RPR in the last ten years of 155 (I expect that to change).

The bare form will undoubtedly need improving. Touch Me Not will pick up races, and he almost took a fence home with him. Down Memory Lane, as mentioned in this column multiple times, has never done a good time figure, and he could not go the pace of this race. The form is very questionable, but the clock backs up the performance, and L'Eau du Sud is a quality horse.

I expect him to take a break now and return in the new year, but he is entitled to improve again and is heading the correct way to be competitive in the Arkle.

However, can I see him being a future 170-rated chaser? No, he reminds me of Edwardstone because he has the potential to win an average Arkle 6/17.00 comfortably, but that may not be the case this year. On average, you want a mid to high 160s performance to win the Arkle, but he is undoubtedly the leading British contender. He should be twice the price in my opinion with Inthepocket and Ballyburn's potential, and a few others that could come out of the woodwork.

He feels like the horse you have in the back pocket when contenders start falling by the wayside. Still, he is a contender.

Market Movers

Back Langer Dan to win the Stayers Hurdle @ 33/134.00 2pt

The Stayer's Hurdle is wide open with Teahupoo making the market at 5/23.50, but I'd say he was a shadow of his former self in the Hattons Grace recently, and perhaps hard race after hard race has had its effect, and his connections have scrapped their plan to head straight there fresh. That was the biggest angle with him. He was good in last year's Hatton's Grace beating Impaire Et Passe, but that form ties in with Langer Dan - 33/134.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and makes the selection look hugely overpriced.

"I have repeatedly explained, whether I'm believed or not, that this horse is not easy in the autumn or the winter"@DSkeltonRacing on Langer Dan, Midnight River, Galia Des Liteaux & Grey Dawning at @kemptonparkrace today. @nickluck pic.twitter.com/LiIKSJcff4

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) November 25, 2024

When looking through this market, I can only see Strong Leader, Buddy One, Lucky Place and Hiddenvalley Lake potential runners in this race behind Teahupoo, so it's baffling as to why Langer Dan is such a big price considering he will only have one target at the festival with this race name-checked (video above).

Langer Dan thrives in the spring and was excellent when winning the 2m5f Coral Cup going away last term, and he enhanced his form when going down by a short neck to Impaire Et Passe at Aintree. He finished most potent that day and was squeezed for room between the winner and the classy Bob Olinger. He was given too much to do behind the same Willie Mullins rival Impaire Et Passe at Sandown in April but stayed on to good effect from off the gallop to pull four lengths clear of Sir Gerhard in finishing second.

The selection was beaten at Newbury on his seasonal debut, but that's of no concern given his proven ability in the spring. Interestingly, he finished only narrowly slower than the winner from the back of the last hurdle. One suspects he will be built up slowly to the festival while the likes of Strong Leader will be looking to land graded races during the winter.

He will enjoy going a slower gallop over three miles and being smuggled into the race under Harry Skelton, and you can guarantee he will be primed on the day and not worked over this winter. I was keen to wait until Langer Dan was beaten again for a bigger price, but it's only a matter of time before this angle is gone, given the potential lack of runners in this race and top-price with Betfair, he is a double staked selection.

I like the angle for potential improvement moved up in trip, that this is a typically weak division, and that his festival record can't be knocked. He will surely go off at least a single-figure price in this market on the day and makes plenty of appeal at 33/134.00 top price with Betfair.

What's On This Week

Dancing City will make his chase debut at Punchestown on Tuesday and is currently 10/111.00 third favourite for the Brown Advisory. This run could have an effect on Ballyburn's final destination, although one suspects he is a law to himself. Still, well worth a watch.

Also, on the Tuesday Punchestown card, Port Joulain will run in a 2m Maiden Hurdle under Paul Townend. He is currently 66/167.00 for the Supreme Novice, 50/151.00 for the Turners, and 25/126.00 for the Albert Bartlett. He is worth a couple of quid, even for cash-out or trading purposes.

It's worth noting that the last nine Supreme Novice Hurdle winners had been seen by the 18th of December, and only Klassical Dream (26th) December had yet to run before this date.

Willie Mullins French import Kitzbuhel runs at 14:40 at Punchestown (not a novice) on Tuesday and could be a potential handicapper for the festival.

Later in the week, Cheltenham's December meeting kicks off on Friday, and Gordon Elliott has entered plenty of horses in handicaps, likely searching for British marks. It's worth checking them out and making a note before the final December stage.

Fairyhouse on Saturday could also prove an informative card, as would Navan on Sunday.

Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.