Cheltenham Festival Focus: 25/1 County Hurdle selection, plus a recap on the ante-post list

• A reflection on the selections so far

• A look back at the week that was

• 25/126.00 County Hurdle Handicap selection

• Our Cheltenham offer is live! Get a completely free bet every weekend until the Festival

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In week 16 of the Cheltenham Focus column, Daryl Carter rounds up the minimal action in the week that was and switches his attention to the County Hurdle for a 25/126.00 ante-post selection he advised on Saturday.

Carter also looks at his current list of bets and discusses his selections with four weeks to go to the Cheltenham Festival.

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Ethical Diamond 12/113.00 and Zenta 33/134.00 of festival interest

*Note - William Hill Hurdle winner Joyeuse is not eligible to run in a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. Nicky Henderson's winner has only had four runs and will need another to qualify, but the trainer categorically ruled Cheltenham out of the picture. So punters, be aware!

On Monday at Punchestown, Ethical Diamond finally came good by bolting up in a Maiden Hurdle and registered his fifth run over hurdles to qualify for a Cheltenham Handicap. He won this nicely and has always promised to be a smart horse. Rated 96 on the flat, he could get a nice mark from the British Handicapper and represents last year's County Hurdle-winning connections 12/113.00. I want him on my side for that race, but I await the handicapper's assessment.

On Tuesday at Fairyhouse, Zenta bounced back to score over fences at the fourth time of asking. She ran well in the County Hurdle (seventh) last year at the Cheltenham Festival, and she looks like she is coming good at the right time to be considered for the Mares Chase 33/134.00. She was almost this week's selection, but for the Mares Chase entries, due out on Tuesday, February 11th.

Sa Majeste was fortunate to win his rated chase over three miles after Affordale Fury clattered the last at Fairyhouse. The winner is unexposed as a stayer, but this was hardly a test of stamina with a dawdle of a gallop, and despite being prominent in a few handicap markets at the festival, he makes little appeal.

Karoline Banbou comfortably landed odds of 4/91.44 at Fairyhouse when scoring in her Maiden Hurdle in a canter. She was cut to 6/17.00 for the Mares Novice Hurdle. A Grade 1 bumper runner-up in France, there was little to take from this race, and much stiffer tasks await her but she rates a pleasant prospect.

On Saturday, Willie Mullins' Murcia performed much more positively at Naas. She looks set to contest the Boodles Handicap 12/113.00 and could have plenty of improvement to come. She is tough to rate, so we await the handicappers' assessment.

Dinoblue finished her race well for the first time this season, prompting thoughts that she may have had a wind operation before this outing in the Opera Hat Mares Chase. She got the better of a battle with Allegorie De Vassy, who went off a strong favourite. Still, this form is well below what she achieved last season when people considered her for a Champion Chase, and her 5/23.50 price for the Mares Chase is of no interest. Dinoblue looks on the downgrade on this evidence, and perhaps the recent "Doctor Dino" progeny theory is correct.

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The Brits fail to enhance festival claims

Djelo won the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury on Saturday, but let's not get it twisted--this was a poor race. As a punter, it was tough to find anything to back, but class shone through as Djelo saw out the three-mile trip for the first time well. As for Cheltenham, there was nothing of serious interest here.

The same comments apply to the Game Spirit Chase Grade 2. Sir Gino's absence left the door open for something to lay down a marker, but winner Master Chewy, Libberty Hunter and Matata all continued to run to the low 150s. As expected, Matata was flattered by his Windsor victory. Matata wants a sharp two-mile, and Libberty Hunter needs a stiff one, but talk for the latter of the Champion Chase 40/141.00 is pie in the sky. Master Chewy was the correct winner in hindsight on the form book, and no form was enhanced here.

At Warwick, L'Eau du Sud won the Kingmaker Novices Chase Grade 2 by a whisker from Rubaud. This must go down as a step backwards from the Skelton runner, who looked all out at the line. He has a huge task in the Arkle to down Majborough and Sir Gino on this evidence, and he has never been better than his debut at Cheltenham.

On Sunday, Better Days Ahead - 8/19.00 for the Brown Advisory - scrapped home at Navan to beat the staying-on Stellar Story 18/119.00 in a slow time. This form is okay, but the winner will need much more to go and down Ballyburn in March. Perhaps Ballyburn's biggest threat comes from the stamina of Stellar Story, who would surely be a National Hunt Chase horse if not for the new 0-145 bracket and was worth an upgrade. He may prove good value at the prices but is likely a value loser. None of these have Ballyburn's tactical speed.

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Ante-post assessment with four weeks to go

It's been a quiet week, so it's time to assess the status of the ante-post list. The good, the bad, and darn right ugly have featured in this column, with the most frustrating to be scrubbed off Inothewayurthinkin for the Gold Cup, who did not get an entry but ran very well in the Irish version recently--although I feel there is still a possibility for him to be supplemented. However, I will be backing him wherever he goes! Still, those who have fallen by the wayside have been scratched, including Inthepocket, for whom news broke this week that he is out of the season:

We sit at -8 points with eight realistic chances of coping a profit.

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Ballyburn to win the Brown Advisory 5/16.00 1pt and 7/24.50 1pt 

Ballyburn was first on this list when most were confident he would go to the Arkle. However, going against the grain has paid off, as he is now 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook. I expect him to take all the beating in March with this race likely to thin out. He is the form horse, has a perfect blend of speed and stamina and is the class act in the race. I am confident he will take some stopping, so much so that I added him to this list again at 7/24.50 before the DRF. I'm delighted here.

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Langer Dan 33/134.00 to win the Stayers Hurdle 2pt 

This selection was a case of him going to the race regardless. He is a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner, will be half the price on the day, and the Stayers Hurdle division is poor.

That doesn't mean he is anything like a certainty to win the contest, especially after his poor showing this term, but he has shown in the spring in previous years that he is a classy horse that can mix it with the likes of Bob Olinger and Impaire Et Passe. That form is good enough to play a hand in this, and I am happy to have him in the book even if we go looking for another play in the race on the day. He is your typical "book builder", but I am quietly confident in his chances.

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Kopek Des Bordes 25/126.00 to win the Supreme Novice Hurdle 1pt

Kopek des Bordes earned a Timeform rating of 154P for his 13-length victory; he now tops our novice hurdle ranks.

He will be the highest-rated horse to contest the @SkyBet Supreme since Altior (155p) in 2016, if he runs in the Cheltenham Festival opener.pic.twitter.com/1QFHQdLQ5M

-- Timeform (@Timeform) February 4, 2025

Now, a 10/111.91 chance, this must be the best bet on the list. As mentioned all season, he is outstanding, and the Novice Hurdle division is weak. He is one of two horses that broke the 150 rating benchmark I set for the novices, and the other heads to Turner's Novice Hurdle. Given a rating of 157 by the Irish Handicapper, he is impossible to oppose.

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Il Est Francais 12/113.00 to win the Ryanair 1pt

Now 9/25.50 connections have still not decided, but he was removed from the Gold Cup and left in the Ryanair and Champion Chase. They would be mad to run in the 2m contest, and this race looks right up his street. He would be confident even with Fact To File in the mix. It's a good bet before taking a fresh look at the race.

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Kopek Des Bordes 10/111.00 to win the Turner's Novice Hurdle 1pt

A panic selection as I didn't want to miss out on a top-class horse, but that now looks highly unlikely.

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Be Aware 14/115.00 to win the Coral Cup 1pt

Another bet for a "book builder". I am happy to have a few stabs in this contest, but Be Aware is now 10/111.00 favourite, and he holds every chance from a handicapping perspective and was quoted as Dan Skelton's best chance in the handicaps recently on Luck On Sunday.

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Iroko 16/117.00 to win the Ultima Handicap 1pt

I had to request the traders price this one up as, remarkably, no firm had him in their ante-post books, so hopefully, we are ahead of the curve.

He is now 7/18.00, and if he were to line up, he would be rated handicap NAP material.

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Maughreen 5/16.00 to win the Mares Novice Hurdle 1pt 

She is now 3/14.00, but she could be very smart, and I am happy to hear Willie Mullins call her his number one. Paul Townend will ride, and she looks like a powerhouse.

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The plan of attack going forward will be to examine the handicaps and any possible switch-a-roos the market has not considered.

Most of our betting has been done for now, although I want to get involved in the Mares Chase next week. I am happy with our current standing, and personally, I will be looking to top up our existing list.

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Market Movers

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Back Iberico Lord to win the County Hurdle @ 25/126.00 1pt (Advised Saturday)

Nicky Henderson's Iberico Lord - 25/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was a firm favourite for this County Hurdle festival race last year before being pulled out to run in the Champion Hurdle on the back of the news that Constitution Hill would miss the race.

IBERICO LORD caps a marvellous November Meeting for Seven Barrows with a superb win in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle @CheltenhamRaces pic.twitter.com/gzeRBQRMui

-- Nicky Henderson (@sevenbarrows) November 19, 2023

Iberico Lord was due to run in the County Hurdle when rated 143. On Saturday, he lined up in the former Betfair Hurdle (the race he won last year) from a rating of 144, but he was weak in the early markets ridden by three pounds claimer Freddie Gordon and never asked for an effort.

He made a successful transition to fences this season. Still, connections have shelved that plan, and he returned to hurdles at Windsor with an eye-catching run under minimal handling by Nico de Boinville over 2m4f.

He offered an eye-catching run on Saturday at Newbury, finishing down the field. This well-handicapped seven-year-old has plenty of time on his side and is still unexposed over hurdles. He looks overpriced for the race in March when he will be asked for maximum return. If the handicapper sees fit to drop him a couple of pounds from the weekend, he could look well treated, particularly considering the Betfair runner-up L'Eau du Sud is now 23lb higher over fences, and he was miles clear of the rest.

He has almost certainly been laid out for the festival and has only had 13 career runs. This former Greatwood Hurdle winner (above) ticks the course form box (albeit this will be run on the new course) and will be primed for a big effort.

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What's on this week?

On Tuesday, 11th February, a huge day away from the track with the Cheltenham Mares Novice Hurdle and Mares Chase entries and the Grand National weights are revealed. Fields for the Champion Hurdle, Mares' Hurdle, Stayers' Hurdle and Grade 1 novice contests at the Cheltenham Festival will thin out as horses are scratched.

On Saturday, the £175,000 Betfair Ascot Chase takes centre stage, and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton should be worth close attention.

It's going to be a quieter few weeks coming after this weekend.

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Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.

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