Cheltenham Festival Focus: 20/1 shot has Ultima Handicap written all over him

• Daryl has a 20/121.00 Ultima Handicap chance

• And a 33/134.00 Plate Handicap bet

• Shishkin fans watch out for the returning cheek-pieces for Gold Cup

---

Shishkin fans look for returning cheek-pieces

Shishkin won in good style at Newbury on Saturday in the Grade 2 Denman Chase beating Hitman by four lengths and remains an 8/19.00 chance for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on the Betfair Sportsbook. This was a good performance from Nicky Henderson's stable star. He hit a few flat spots and jumped poorly on occasions but got the job done against inferior rivals in a race he was entitled to win.

Sights we love to see

Shishkin securing his first win of the season! pic.twitter.com/S8BWByUPuT

-- ITV Racing (@itvracing) February 11, 2024

He was notably strong at the finish in ground that wouldn't have been to his liking, so he needs marking up for this, but it's still a way off the Gold Cup favourite.

Here lies my concern.

I worry about him making mistakes early in the race and having to be chivied along after every fence to keep in line with the fast gallop, and I think his trainer is, too. I watched this race alongside Nicky Henderson in the Royal Box at Newbury and noted a few things.

First was how much he was watching him at the off. He was very on edge at the race start.

The second was his comment during the race when jumping poorly when he said, "See, that's why he needs cheek-pieces".

You will remember that Shishkin refused to start when fitted with these cheek-pieces at Ascot, and I have a strong suspicion that they will return for the Gold Cup.

That has to be a worry for his ante-post backers. After all, he won't be much shorter in the Gold Cup after the first fence, so perhaps backing him in the running may be the play here.

On the same Newbury card, for the first time in his career, Edwardstone was allowed his head and made all to win the Game Spirit in emphatic style. I am baffled why Alan King had taken this long to try this, as he looked brilliant. Granted, he was facing a poor field down in grade, and the switch of tactics from such a trainer was unpredictable for punters, but he won this very well indeed.

He now adds a new element into the Champion Chase for which he is 10/111.00. A lesson for King, perhaps: stop strangling your horses at the rear of the field. Still, it will be a much tougher ask against Jonbon and El Fabiolo to get away with this.

---

Iberico Lord a massive County Hurdle player

A big race double on 'Super Saturday' @NewburyRacing as IBERICO LORD stays on powerfully to give us a sixth victory in the Betfair Hurdle for owner JP McManus!@NdeBoinville pic.twitter.com/WD8suVmRCo

-- Nicky Henderson (@sevenbarrows) February 10, 2024

Iberico Lord won the Betfair Hurdle and is now favourite at 8/19.00 for the County Hurdle. He won this well, but soft ground is essential to him.

There were a few eye-catchers behind, too. Doddie The Great will be some horse over a fence next year, while Faivoir caught the eye under an inexperienced rider and will likely be targetted at the County Hurdle, which he won last year off a similar mark.

Iberico Lord looks highly progressive, and he can make his mark up in grade when the time comes, but having won this off just 134, even with a likely 8lb rise to 142, he looks a huge player in the County Hurdle. I was seriously impressed, mainly as the time was electric compared to the Bumper and the 2m opening Novice Hurdle.

At Naas, Allegorie De Vassy bounced back to form, winning over 2m and is now 9/25.50 for the Mares Chase. She was kept wide against the rail on this switch to a left-handed track, but that didn't stop her from jumping out to the right.

She was outpaced by Impervious last year at Cheltenham, and it might be the same story again with Dino Blue this year. Still, she will take her chance.

---

Brighterdaysahead sets up an exciting Mares Novice clash

Brightersdaysahead was very impressive at Navan on Sunday, scoring with any amount in hand in the fastest time on the card easily. The five-year-old travelled powerfully close to a strong gallop and won under minimal pressure.

Any comparisons you might hear with the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle should not be taken seriously as the Graded race over the same distance was slowly run early and turned into a dash. The Boyne Hurdle was 17.5 lengths slower. The Boyne Hurdle winner Hiddenvalley Lake was ten lengths quicker from three out to the finish, although Brighterdaysahead was hardly asked for maximum effort.

Brighterdaysahead came out very well against the 1m7f opening Maiden hurdle, clocking a 19-length quicker circuit time and 22 lengths quicker than the 2m6f handicap hurdle.

She is a proper mare and was rightly cut to 3/14.00 for the Mares Novices Hurdle. This was won over 2m5f on heavy ground, but she has shown a high cruising speed to think she could handle the drop back to 2m, 2m on quicker spring ground may be the question she has to answer. This is a fascinating race to wait for on the day, but she is no banker.

---

Our list with 30 days to go

Salvator Mundi: He went in on week one alongside the following selection as he came out of a France race I liked every year for the Triumph Hurdle.

*However, I have been told from the horse's mouth that he is certain not to be seen this year and will wait for next year.

Sir Gino 16/117.00 now 4/51.80: I couldn't be happier with this selection as I think he could be a world-beater. He looks right out of the top drawer, and it will take a performance from the heavens to get him beat in the Triumph Hurdle.

Irish Point 14/115.00 now 4/15.00: Another I took a chance with early in the season, and fingers crossed he lines up in the Stayers Hurdle as he has a fantastic chance. Unexposed young legs with a bit of class, something this division lacks. However, Gordon Elliott's recent Racing Post stable tour has me up in arms mentioning a possible Champion Hurdle tilt - what a waste if he does.

Envoi Allen 14/115.00 now 4/15.00: A no-brainer at the time, given he won the Ryanair race last year, beating Shishkin and Hitman, and that form stood up at Newbury this past weekend. He is straightforward and loves Cheltenham, with a record of 13F11. It's hard to see the negatives.

Jeriko Du Reponet 12/113.00 now 9/110.00: I got a lot of stick for this one, but he remains unbeaten. He has yet to progress as quickly as I thought he might, so I wouldn't go back in again on the day with Ballyburn looking bombproof in the Supreme. Still, he is why you make an ante-post book, so you don't have to worry.

Better Days Ahead 33/134.00 now 66/167.00: More than likely going to head for a handicap rather than the Albert Bartlett after Gordon Elliott's stable tour but has been running over a trip too short this season. He is one to put a line through.

Mighty Bandit 8/19.00 now 20/121.00: The only horse on this list at a single-figure price. I was too hasty here as we hadn't seen Sir Gino or the Mullins Juvenile, and I started to get shakey legs, so I wanted something else in the Triumph. He was too bad to be true on the last day and has since sold and moved to Warren Greatrex. However, settling into a new yard and running four weeks later is a big ask. Another I wouldn't go in again with.

Mystical Power 25/126.00 now 8/19.00: Originally put up for the Baring Bingham and has since won the Moscow Flyer. He looks like a classy animal, and should he turn up for the Baring Bingham, his speed will be a great asset, and he would be a strong fancy to go back in with.

Corbetts Cross 20/121.00 now 7/18.00: I took a chance that the National Hunt Chase would be the plan, and while it's not confirmed, it looks highly likely. He gave me a right fright when coming down in his prep run for the National Hunt Chase, as he is among the biggest winners for me ante-post.

Still, reports suggest he is none the worse, and fingers crossed he lines up. He would be one where confidence would remain on the day, as I think he has a fantastic chance.

Mystical Power 14/115.00 now 9/25.50: We had to cover him for the Supreme, and I am happy we did, as it puts us in a good position not to worry about which direction he goes. My preference is for the Baring Bingham, though.

Grey Dawning 10/111.00 now 5/16.00: I think this horse has been seriously underestimated for the Brown Advisory, and he is a potential Gold Cup horse for next year. What he did at Warwick was electric, and this market is yet to be priced without Fact To File. It looks like a two-horse race between him and Stay Away Fay, so we will be in the position to back the Paul Nicholls horse on the day and be sitting with a good value hand as the selection will surely be a 5/23.50 chance.

Under Control 50/151.00 now 66/167.00: Mares Hurdle no longer looks on the cards and she is more likely to run in a handicap. Another to put a line through.

Fastorslow 33/134.00 now 10/111.00: Betfair offers total cash out on ante-post bets, and I would be looking to get out of this bet as it seems they are hell-bent on running in the Gold Cup.

Fact To File 10/111.00 now 7/42.75: I am keeping everything crossed that the Turners is the plan for Fact To File as this race has zero depth and it looks like a freebie. Hopefully, Willie Mullins feels the same. Outstanding claims.

Good Time Jonny 12/113.00 now 8/19.00: He will only shorten, in my opinion, for Kim Muir and is very well handicapped even if the British handicapper punishes him. He makes sensational appeal back up in trip, having won the Pertemps Final last season.

The next time we look at our list will be in the final column on Sunday, four weeks from now.

---

Back Trelawne for the Ultima Handicap Chase @ 20/121.00 1pt

I've waited for this bet until Trelawne had run at Exeter on Sunday, and as expected, he has been found out for a burst of speed over 2m3f in a tactical affair, but this horse is crying out to go back to three miles.

Crebilly storms from last to first seizing victory in the opener @ExeterRaces for @JJONeillJnr @JonjoONeill & Mr JP McManus

Sold at the Nov NH Sale by Coolamurry Stud for €27,000 to Mr Ian Ferguson

pic.twitter.com/bTqtWp6cPg

-- Tattersalls Ireland (@Tattersalls_ie) February 11, 2024

Kim Bailey's homebred doesn't come without his quirks, but he has been on my radar for some time for this race, and I have been delighted with how well he has been running over a trip too short for him.

He made a seamless start over fences when scoring at Carlisle on his chase debut, which recorded a rapid time figure only to then fault for speed in the Timeform Novices Chase at Cheltenham behind smart Turner's prospect Ginny's Destiny and Brown Advisory second favourite Grey Dawning.

That is one of the strongest races run this year in the Novice Chase division on either side of the Irish Sea.

He hung badly right at Wetherby in the Towton Novices Chase. However, he still galloped on to get within two lengths of Colonel Harry, who had finished second in the Grade 1 Henry Eighth Novices Chase over 2m at Sandown, which spoke volumes of his ability.

His latest at Exeter was a tactical affair in which he faired well but lacked the turn of foot of Cheltenham adversary Crebilly. Still, he stuck to the task well in the first-time cheek-pieces again, shaping as though improvement is inbound when getting a stiffer stamina test.

As for his quirks, he hung right on his second start at Exeter in a Novice Hurdle and left at Wetherby, which is just him. Considering how well he ran at Cheltenham in December, I am not overly concerned about him going left-handed.

He will arrive at the festival with a very workable mark of 145 (unless the handicapper gives him back a few pounds), unexposed at 3m, having won in handicap hurdles both times over 2m6f and 2m7f and he looks just the type the yard excel with. Happygolucky stepped up in distance for the Ultima, and Vindication was a horse that ran over middle distances before finding improvement over three miles. At the same time, the yard's Chianti Classico has a National Hunt Chase entry.

I want to have him on side before the preview circuit starts linking the Ginnys Destiny form lines together.

---

Back Saint Roi for the Cheltenham Plate @ 33/134.00 1pt

Saint Roi has cut little mustard this season, but he has barely been put into a race, and there's a good chance that connections have had no choice but to handicap him. The Irish handicapper has seemingly been wise to it, though, dropping him just two pounds in four runs this term despite finishing out the back of the TV in three of those and expect the British Handicapper to add a couple more on.

Still, he often saves his best for the spring festivals, and he caught the eye with a brilliant run from off the pace at Fairyhouse on his penultimate start on handicap debut, clocking his best numbers of the season when tenderly handled from well off the pace.

The plan is to run in the Grand Annual or in the Cheltenham Plate. He is 12/113.00 for the Grand Annual and much bigger at 33/134.00 for this race.

However, the possibility of moving up in trip is the perfect cover story for his season.

Furthermore, his best effort on RPR ratings since 2022 came at Aintree over 2m4f behind Ryanair favourite Banbridge when pushing that rival right to the line in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices Chase.

The Plate option would see him return to the new course, which saw him win the County Hurdle in 2020, and he has never finished outside of the first three at three Cheltenham Festivals, including Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase third-placed efforts. He is not quite one I want to risk two points on by backing each-way, but he will have only his second handicap start over fences and third in all, and the drop into calmer waters will only see him to best effect.

I always expect the unexpected with JP McManus horses, but this race would look the more obvious option for Saint Roi, now another year older, and there is plenty of stamina in the pedigree.

---

Now read more Cheltenham tips and content

---