-
16 left in at Haydock after Thursday's declaration stage
-
Inisherin back or lay?
-
The Irish are interested in having a crack at the prize
-
Betfair go four places in the Sprint Cup
-
-
Ryan Moore Superboost
Ryan Moore has a big chance of landing the Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup (14:25 Haydock) today aboard the Ian Williams-trained Oneforthegutter, and the Betfair Sportsbook have decided to boost the price on the combination finishing in the top six from 8/151.53 to 1/12.00.
Following a fantastic run in last month's York Ebor Handicap, where the 5yo finished an excellent third, Oneforthegutter has now finished in the top six in every one of his last nine starts on turf, so the chances of him doing so again today have to be very high.
To take advantage of this superboot, simply click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.
Back Oneforthegutter to finish Top 6 in the 14:25 Haydock
Listen to this week's Racing Only Bettor for more tips...
The Betfair Sprint Cup has seen no winner bigger than 11/112.00 in the last ten years with four winning favourites, but no favourite has scored in the previous three years.
Regional - an NR before Monday's entry stage - Minzaal and Emaraaty Ana are the most recent winners, and all three were beaten last time out in Group 1 company - two in the York Nunthorpe.
The three previous winners, Dream Of Dreams in 2020, Hello Youmzain 2019, and The Tin Man in 2018, had run in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time out. The 2017 winner, Harry Angel, had won the July Cup before scoring here. Quiet Reflection won this in 2016 following a third in the July Cup, and G Force in 2014 had run sixth in the Nunthrope at York before his victory here.
The only horse that didn't run in Group 1 company last time to win this race was 2015 winner Twilight Son.
Three-year-olds have won five of the last ten, but not since 2019. They finished second and third in this race last year. So don't write off the youngsters who dominate this market.
According to the Met Office, it's set to be a dry week before Saturday's race, so I am working on good or quicker ground.
Inisherin proved a revelation when he dropped back to six furlongs following his sound 2,000 Guineas effort by landing the Sandy Lane Stakes over today's course and distance and then the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
The Ascot performance had a wow factor, but it doesn't look quite like the 120 RPR performance he was given. The form only looks ok, with the runner-up entitled to be better for the outing, having made his seasonal reappearance and the third Jasour better than the bare result, having pulled very hard for much of the race. The four-length fourth Kind Of Blue was only rated 90 at the time but has been beaten the next twice in Group 3 company.
The Ascot performance clocked a fair time, but it wasn't the early blistering pace set the following day in the Jubilee.
He was expected to kick on once tackling his elders in the Group 1 July Cup, but he fell short behind course lover Mill Stream (comfortably held next time in the Prix Maurice de Gheest) and today's rival Swingalong when only managing fifth.
It's possible he just ran a little flat in the July Cup three weeks after Ascot, but the form is a little suspect to take that approach with him at the head of the market, and the comparison with the Ascot Jubilee Stakes suggests it may have been his true running. Perhaps there was a small track bias at Newmarket that day, but it's tough to be conclusive when comparing the rest of the card.
The July Cup was the first time he was asked to go a sprinter gallop early on in a race, dipping below 11 seconds per furlong for more than three consecutive furlongs. While Mill Steam, Vandeek, Jasour and Vadream were comfortable, Inisherin was outpaced.
There's little doubt he will be in the mix to land this, but is he perhaps not the standout superstar sprinter he looked at Ascot?
Like Inisherin, Elite Status has been targeted at this race following his Group 3 Hackwood Stakes victory at Newbury, where he beat Lake Forest and Kind Of Blue. He held on at the finish from the fast-finishing Lake Forest, who wasn't granted the clearest of passages.
Elite Status now steps up into Group 1 company for the first time since failing to place as a two-year-old in two attempts behind Vandeek in France and Newmarket.
His knee issues have been well documented, and space between his races has seen him to good effect. The concern for his followers is that his best two performances on the figures have come at Newbury, and there's not enough evidence to suggest he is on the path to being the next sprint sensation. At the same time, his bare form needs improving to scalp some older rivals.
Swingalong has proven to be a reliable yardstick with a second in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, only being caught late by one ridden with patience and second in the Group 1 July Cup, having been in the firing line throughout.
The filly finished well clear of Inisherin at Newmarket last time when narrowly denied by a neck to Mill Steam. That form may be underestimated following the winner's defeat in France. However, it may have little relevance considering Mill Stream's record at Newmarket reads 1222, and the pair finished second and third at Royal Ascot.
Swingalong ran a big race in this contest last year when racing alone up the stand-side rail to finish a narrow fourth, and she arrives in better form this term despite failing to get her head in front.
She rates a solid play in this contest and should be in the mix if drawn better than last year.
Jasour has plenty of ability, but he needs to settle. He was no match for Swingalong at Newmarket when he finished sixth in the July Cup. He will surely improve with age as he learns to race, but he is frustrating to back, and the winning or losing of this race will be evident in the first two furlongs. Respected but risky.
Montassib relishes soft ground and is a sprinter on the upgrade this season. He arrives following a last-gasp Group 3 Chipchase Stakes victory at Newcastle on the all-weather. He has not been seen since but must be respected, although his chances are significantly enhanced with rain.
Irish raider who saw success in May in the Group 3 Goffs Lacken Stakes over Givemethebeatboys by a head when having the favoured stand side rail. He is entitled to improve, considering that was his first outing for 252 days, and despite the runner-up being no match for Inisherin in the Commonwealth Cup, he proved that form all wrong when scoring next time at the Curragh over Kind Of Blue by a head.
Bucanero Fuerte missed his Commonwealth Cup engagement through travel sickness. Still, it can be assumed that is not a concern today, considering he had previously travelled over the England fine when he was a narrow third in the Coventry Stakes in 2023. A Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner at two years, he will need to raise his game following another absence, but he is rated 120, which puts him right in the mix. Providing that all is well on this return to action, he holds sound claims.
He has work to do to reverse form with Bucanero Fuerte, but they have been closely matched on several occasions. He has been a little underwhelming when travelling to Britain in the past, and he is passed over by others holding more substantial claims.
Why is he priced shorter than Bucanero Fuerte?
He had no excuses at the Curragh behind Givemethebeatboys and Elite Status at Newbury but is still lightly raced and has reached a high level after just a handful of starts. It's too early to write off, but it needs a career-best from him to win this.
Richard Hannon's four-year-old was an excellent 50/151.00 second in this race last year and has continued to run to a high level this term. He is a strong stayer at six furlongs and will relish a strong pace, but one suspects it would be a disappointing climax should he not find a couple of these too good.
His best form has come on soft ground, and despite a Group 3 win last time, his recent form wouldn't be good enough here.
He returns following a 196-day lay-off but has a good record reappearing following a break and was firmly on the upgrade last season, including a three-length defeat in this race at 66/167.00 when denied a clear passage. He followed up with wins in the Portland Handicap and the Group 3 Bengough Stakes. Well worth his place but will need one or two others to underperform.
He has been tried to no good effect over seven furlongs the last two times, but the return to six means he is expected to put in a bigger performance. However, he has fallen short of the required level this term, and the 38-raced seven-year-old may have his best days behind him.
Irish raider who has won nine of his 33 starts and landed the Group 1 Flying Five this time last year. Hard to predict, and this is his first visit to England - not at his best in two attempts outside of Ireland.
A William Haggas four-year-old filly who landed the Wokingham on her penultimate start before finding Flora Of Bermuda too good at York when upped in class. Possibly unfavoured by her racing position on that occasion and has an upwardly mobile profile.
Today's strong pace should suit her, and she is a course winner. Group 2 level proved beyond her when held by Mitbaahy in Ireland, but she could go very well at price.
Flora Of Bermuda won well at York in the Group 3 Summer Stakes on her penultimate start at considerable odds of 14/115.00 and was tried in Group 1 company in the Prix Maurice De Gheest last time but could only manage a four-length fourth. Surprisingly, she ran with great credit in France, which has led to connections to supplement her for this prize.
She needs a big improvement on all known form to land this Group 1, but six furlongs is her trip, and she is relatively unexposed. She would be a surprise winner.
Mudlark is at her best when the ground is deep, but she has steadily declined. Passed over.
Verdict
Swingalong remains of firm interest now that 16 have stood their ground at the final declaration stage, but she has again been dealt a draw of 15 of 16, keeping her way from the likely pace. It may not be as significant as I expected, but I prefer Bucanero Fuerte, drawn in stall three, and I'd be hoping he makes all the running under David Egan. His absence has contributed to his price, but according to reports, this has been a plan for a while, and he is top-rated in this field. The sprint division is not strong unless Elite Status (drawn 11) or Inisherin (drawn 10) stamp a marker down, but the Irish add an intriguing element to this race, and I think Bucanero Fuerte will be given a soft lead on his side of the draw.
Bucanero Fuerte is very lightly raced, and his form stacks up. He has gone unbeaten either side of the Coventry Stakes over six furlongs. He looks worth siding with to continue his progression.
15:35 Haydock - Back Bucanero Fuerte