Alan Dudman has selections across Haydock and Goodwood for Friday's double...
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Haggas and a Sea The Stars filly for first leg
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Can Gosden fire in a newcomer?
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Friday's Sportsbook double pays 37/138.00
Yesterday's headline was "McGuiness holds the handicap ace", and indeed, Ado struck with Hightimeyouwon - returning a huge BSP of 25.024/1, but unfortunately I was on his other runner Jaafel, who had drifted and doubled in price. It's a reminder of never being put off by any handicapper from that yard. I just was on the wrong side.
Friday's fixture list is very busy with a plethora of meetings, but Sea Claret is surely capable of showing up better than her underwhelming debut.
The 3yo debuted in a strong-looking Newmarket Maiden over 1m, but meetings at HQ have been a bit of a lottery this term with the draw and over-watered ground, so I give her another chance.
She was beaten 12L and was always behind, but she was at least backed from 10/111.00 to 7/18.00 this morning on the Sportsbook, so I wasn't alone in thinking the double figures looked too big.
Her trainer William Haggas persists with the 1m, but I do see her as a filly to get further in keeping with her pedigree as a daughter of Sea The Stars.
Haggas has a 20% strike-rate in the last five seasons at Goodwood but over a 1m at the track his stats are better at 24% and 55% placed.
She's drawn well and I am hoping she can improve as she was all at sea in the dip at HQ.
With a Charlie Appleby newcomer priced up at Evens on the Sportsbook, all eyes will be on the costly debutant Ancient Wisdom - a horse who cost the worldly sum of 2,000,000.
My take these days with these horses for debut is to take them on, as the cost usually dictates the price. And Appleby is just 2-20 in the last fortnight and remains out of form.
The John Gosden newcomer in the King's silks Crown Estate has a pedigree just as illustrious, as his dam is Castle Lady - a winner on debut by 3L in France and a scorer in the Pouliches.
Karl Burke also has a 2yo in the race, but I am very hit and miss with that yard's runners. Gosden is only 0-4 with his juveniles, but Haydock is a nice track for a first start and Dubawi (also the sire of Ancient Wisdom) has a decent record with 2yos at Haydock of 14% win and 38% placed.
I'd rather back him at three times the price than the costly favourite - who could turn out to be a world beater, but he might not.