Headgear stats to the fore again with Suroor
Back Dubai Welcome @ 2.26/5 in the 18:30 at Kempton
I was hoping for yielding ground at Roscommon yesterday and I got a little more than a bargained for with 22mm to turn it heavy. Elmos Fire never went a yard, while Royal Romeo was an alarming drifter from 6/4 to 5/1 and a BSP of 6.45 as the chances were scuppered. It had a feeling of those that backed Spectre in the Gold Cup in James Joyce's Ulysses.
No such problems with the going at Kempton tonight, and it's hard to see Saeed bin Suroor's well-bred Dubai Welcome sliding in the market like Royal Romeo. A 2.26/5 price seems about right for a horse that could have a class edge of top weight.
The 5yo returned to Kempton last time off a mammoth 589-day break and ran into Pearl Beach, who is now rated 93 and ran well in a Group 3 at Newcastle recently.
Dubai Welcome travelled with ease, and while finishing second, it was a good effort. Although he traded at 1.21/5 in-play, which was his second 1.21/5 along with a 1.121/8.
He did win over CD in 2020 in a good time, but the key aspect here is the trainer's record with headgear. Cheekpieces are back on tonight and SBS has a record of 25% with the paint-rollers (placed percentage even higher at 48%). From a good draw and a handy style of racing, the son of Emily Bronte should have enough to win this.
Have pride in a Percy win over 2m
Back Percy's Pride @ 5.59/2 in the 19:30 at Kempton
The presence of a Harry Fry runner adds some intrigue to the staying race tonight, as Fry's horses tend to go off a little shorter than perhaps they should, and that's the case with his Winterwatch, who at 2/1 looks to have risks as a keen-goer off the back of a wind-op.
She isn't totally certain to stay, which can also be levelled at Moel Arthur, so it might be worth chancing William Knight's filly Percy's Pride. As the name suggests, Sir Percy is the sire, and his stock are known for staying.
The 4yo was in fine fettle last term with three wins at Chelmsford, Ascot and Ffos Las. Two of those were over 1m4f, and she had a go at 1m6f at Goodwood and was only beaten 2L in 0-105 company behind Sea Sylph. In fact, she might have fared better with less of a stop-start tempo, but tonight's race represents a shift in class.
Her three runs this term sees her winless, but she is down to 82 and there were excuses at Goodwood last month as the race turned into a sprint.
Hopefully that Sir Percy stamina can see her home.
June single bet winners
Australian Angel 4/1 Won
Prince Dundee 5/2 Won
Blackrod 8/1 Placed
Royal Scotsman 9/1 Placed
Mooneista 10/1 Placed
Zaccerela 15/2 Placed
One World 3/1 Won
All Lies Ahead 7/1 Placed
Magical Morning 5/1 Won
Palm Lily 9/4 Won
May single bet winners
Sole Pretender Evens Won
Clear The Runway 6/4 Won
Rich Belief 3/1 Won
Exit To Where 9/4 Won
Boardman 9/4 Won
Sea La Rosa 11/4 Won
Quickthorn 4/1 Won
Alpine Sierra 15/8 Won
Secret Shadow 9/2 Placed
Mooneista 13/2 Placed
Lionel 3/1 Won
Sea Silk Road 13/8 Won
Johnston's Blue 11/4 Won
Haarar 9/2 Won
Lariat 6/1 Placed
Haizoom 10/1 Won and Placed
Sea Silk Road 8/1 Won
Brotherly Company 17/2 Won