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Four Exchange Win bets from 3.185/40 to 11.010/1
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Embassy Garden's Brendan's best bet on Day 1
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I am charged with digging out some value bets on each day of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival. Below are Tuesday's musings.
Hopefully these selections represent a bit of value. I'm hoping more fire and less ice beacons on the Betfair Exchange as the off times near. Recommended points are on a scale of 1 to 5.
13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Back Firefox
A tricky start. I will chance something small on Firefox to bounce back. I was much more confident in January when backing him for the Lawlor's Hurdle in Naas. I was uber confident in the run too. Counting my money as this accurate jumper loomed up approaching the turn. Sadly he soon fell in a hole.
Gordon Elliott said the horse wasn't right after that run. I'm inclined to think that story makes sense. Elliott is a master. He should have Firefox primed for this assignment. This is a horse who has already beaten Ile Atlantique and Ballyburn in his brief career.
14:10 - Arkle Chase: Back JPR One Win & Place
Another fascinating puzzle. Gaelic Warrior is a massive talent but comes here on the back of a lifeless effort last time out. I'm inclined to chance a small win and place wager on JPR One.
This horse has improved significantly for a switch to the larger obstacles. He gain valuable course and distance experience in November. He would have won as he liked that day but for over-jumping the last fence. The Sandown glue may have blunted the speed of this strong traveller on his next start.
He was massively impressive last time out in Lingfield. A performance of real style and some substance. This race should be run at a strong pace. Expect to see JPR in his comfort zone throughout the race, and finishing to some effect.
14:50 - Ultima Handicap: Back Chianti Classico
A typically competitive renewal but I do think Chianti Classico will go close. Trainer Kim Bailey believes this horse has the potential to be well handicapped and I agree.
He has won six of his 10 career starts under rules. He did struggle in last year's Albert Bartlett but hopefully that big field experience will stand to him. Last time out in Sandown the horse tried to concede 8lbs to course specialist Flegmatik. He failed to do it granted but going down narrowly to that horse under his optimum conditions rates strong form.
Chianti Classico has obvious scope to be better than his mark. His jumping technique looks solid and should hold up in this bigger field.
17:30 National Hunt Chase: Back Embassy Gardens
Embassy Gardens and Corbetts Cross currently vie for favouritism but to my mind the former should be clear fav. There is a concern that he blew out in the Albert Bartlett last year but he seems a more relaxed horse this season.
Willie Mullins has decided to run him in a first time hood. I find that surprising but based on day one declarations the hood seems to be the must have accessory at the Festival this year, and maybe it can't do any harm. Mullins knows what he's doing.
While Corbetts Cross has stamina and jumping concerns, Embassy Gardens looks a natural over fences and was only getting going in the closing stages when winning over an extended three miles in Naas last time out. The talented Sandor Clegane was 10 lengths back in second. That rates strong novice chase form.
Mr Vango should ensure this race is run at a good clip. I expect Embassy Gardens to win.
Now read Tony Calvin's Day 1 Cheltenham Tips here.
Racing... Only Bettor - Cheltenham Day 1 Tips!