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Supreme Novice Hurdle Tips: Constitution Hill worthy favourite for Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser

Daryl Carter
17 January 2022
4:00 min read

The Supreme Novice Hurdle is the opening contest of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival

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In the first of our series of ante-post columns on the key races at Cheltenham 2022, Daryl Carter takes the hot seat to tackle the opening contest, the Supreme Novice Hurdle...

"Constitution Hill is certainly my idea of the winner. Still, he surely only drifts from his current 3.55/2 with Sir Gerhard, and Jonbon both likely to run again and recency bias being the beast it is."

This year's Supreme Novice Hurdle is shaping up to be one of the deepest renewals for some time, and looking back at the previous Supreme Novice Hurdle winners over the last ten years can give punters a helping hand in what's required to get off to a flying start.

In the last ten years...

In the last ten runnings of this race, eight of the last ten had won at least a Grade 2 before stepping foot on the Cheltenham turf in March. Shishkin did win a Listed contest at Huntingdon, though, and Labaik (50/1) a Grade 3, so going into this contest with simply a Maiden or a Novice win under your belt is not usually good enough.

Interestingly enough, Shishkin, along with Summerville Boy, are the only two winners from the last ten years who did not win a hurdle race the previous calendar year - so it could prove wise to avoid those late bloomers.

If you're looking across the water at Ireland for a winner, then the Chanelle Pharma Novices Hurdle will be worth keeping a close eye on. Four of the last five Irish winners of the Supreme Novice Hurdle have won that race on route to the Cheltenham Festival and the Moscow Flyer which was won this year in impressive fashion by Dysart Dynamo 5.04/1.

Appreciate It 1280 (2).jpg

And last point before we get stuck into a few contenders. You have to be an exceptional seven-year-old to win this contest, Only Appreciate It, since 2008 and only seven in the entire 76 years running of the race.

Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Mighty Potter and Dysart Dynamo are the only horses to have won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 at the top of the betting market at the time of writing, which means second favourite and seven-year-old Sir Gerhard, will need to claim at least a Grade 2 win at the Dublin Racing Festival in February to fit the trends.

This race is starting to take shape, and unsurprisingly many runners in the ante-post market at the foot of the betting are unlikely to run.

Constitution Hill a very worthy favourite

Constitution Hill Sandown 1280 x 820.png

Constitution Hill 3.55/2 leads the ante-post pack for the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the time of writing after two impressive displays over hurdles at Sandown. It's hard to throw shade on what he has achieved thus far. He has recorded good time figure performances and has proven himself ground versatile. He bolted up by 14 lengths on his debut on good to soft and then cantered away from his rivals on the most bottomless Sandown ground for ten years when scoring in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle by ten lengths.

The form is difficult to weigh up given the British Novices this season as a collective has been below what would be an average year. He quickened past Harry Fry's Might I 41.040/1 on debut (good to soft) and showed a bright turn of foot to leave his 135 rated rival dead in the water.

Taking that bare form too literally would usually be folly. Still, the third, Outlaw Peter, rated 117, was beaten by 17 lengths and had previously been beaten three lengths by the rock-solid 139 rated Ask Me Early at Exeter, albeit over 2m5f, which suggests the form is rather solid.

Of Consitution's latest form, the runner-up, Jetoile, had scored twice impressively and was narrowly touched off on seasonal return by the 135 rated Top Bandit at Cheltenham.

The form has substance, and he looks every inch a worthy Supreme Novice favourite, especially given he has achieved this in just two starts on a racecourse with plenty of improvement expected.

Jonbon not hitting the right notes for me

Equally impressive for some but far more fragile it would seem is Constitution Hill's stablemate Jonbon 4.03/1 who cost a hefty £570,000 at the Goffs Sales and is a half brother to the once very talented Douvan.

A winner of a Point to Point, bumper and two starts over hurdles see the JP McManus owned horse second favourite for the race in March. He has been visually impressive, and he looks the part, so it's hard to suggest he is not the superstar that many suggest he could be. He has failed to record any useful time figures, so the form at least should stack up, shouldn't it?

However, his point to point form saw the 15 lengths beaten runner-up brushed aside by 80 lengths by Constitution Hill, and while Jonbon was impressive in winning that contest, it's hard to get clarity on what he achieved. The second is rated 110 under rules, and the third is rated 93 while the fourth 112.

His bumper run sees only the third win since and rated 115 but subsequently trounced by 22 lengths on handicap debut off that mark, and his hurdle debut has produced one winner in a poor race at Wincanton, while it's not hard on my end to pull apart his Grade 2 Kennel Gate win either highlighted in Cheltenham Focus. He has all the potential in the world but also races with earplugs, and it's been reported that he gets very jittery before his races.

Backers must be concerned that the Cheltenham occasion will affect his chances, and I can't help but feel that the price is very much hyped up because of his relation to his superstar brother Douvan. However, I have been wrong before.

Sir Gerhard vulnerable to superstar?

Sir Gerhard 7.06/1 could lead the charge of the Irish and bid to emulate Champagne Fever, who landed this race 12 months after winning the Champion Bumper.

In December, he made a winning seasonal return and hurdle debut at Leopardstown, making all of the running and scored by an easy eight lengths.

While it was visually impressive, the form is nothing to get excited about as it isn't in many Irish Maiden Hurdles. The runner-up had previously been beaten 23 lengths by likely Albert Bartlett contender Eric Bloodaxe over 2m3f, which doesn't look great. The third had been comfortably beaten five lengths by Gringo D'aubrelle, who was subsequently trounced ten lengths by Stage Star at Newbury and then Dysart Dynamo at Punchestown.

The time figure performance wouldn't have backers jumping for joy either, and there is a small doubt about the bumper form from last season, with the division outside of Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit looking very weak.

Kilcruit has suffered two defeats this term, and it's looking ever more likely that Sir Gerhard needs to improve a good deal.

His bumper form ties in with Jonbon through Elle Est Belle, with that mare beaten seven lengths by Sir Gerhard in the Champion Bumper and five lengths by Jonbon over hurdles at Kempton. It's not wise to use that loose form line, but it makes sense in a roundabout way, and unless he significantly improves at the Dublin Racing Festival, I am not sure he is even the best of the Irish, let alone the rest. Then, of course, there is the seven-year-old factor.

The next four in the betting are all Irish runners, Mighty Potter is in at 13.012/1. He also has the Ballymore Novice Hurdle option, which would be my preference for him, but he wouldn't be out of place in this contest. Outside of Constitution Hill, he is the only other Grade 1 winner in the betting after landing the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle - a key pointer to the Supreme Novice Hurdle over the years.

He is a class act but still very green, and it would concern me if I were a backer for this race that he lacks tactical pace, as seen when undone by Statuaire when third in the Grade 1 Royal Bond.

He is fast on the upgrade and has stacks of potential, so he would have to be feared if turning up in this contest, but the right race for him would be the wide-open Ballymore Novice Hurdle.

Mullins' Dynamo should be feared by all

dysart Dynamo 1280 x 856.png

Leading the Irish charge on the back of Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Hurdle is Dysart Dynamo 4.57/2 who left a deep impression after an all the way 19 length victory. He is now unbeaten in four starts and while the level of form is up for debate, the impressive style of all of his victories is not.

He looks the first string for seven time Supreme Novice Hurdle winning trainer Willie Mullins should they decide that this is the route and not the Ballymore Novices Hurdle for which he is 5.04/1 favourite.

Plans remain up in the air but given the gears he showed at Punchestown and his very high cruising speed, he must be respected wherever he goes.

Fantastic Fabio may be the value angle?

El Fabiolo 21.020/1 could be a fly in the ointment after impressing at Tramore on debut for Willie Mullins. He ran out an effortless winner by 13 lengths on heavy ground on his first start 472 days. Willie Mullins' comments suggest he could be a real player if he turns up in this event. The trainer said, "He's up there with all of those" [Penhill, Saint Roi and Laurina, who all won maiden hurdles at this track].

However, he did use the same race for County Hurdle winner Saint Roi, albeit for that one's second start, and it will likely be at the handicapper's discretion once qualified (another run needed).

Still, in February, he has an entry in the Dublin Racing Festival Grade 1 up against Sir Gerhard. It would be no surprise to see his price shorten dramatically on the outcome of that race, and that will undoubtedly give Willie Mullins an indication of which route to take, not just with this one but Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard.

He is one of the more interesting runners at a price and a likely market shortener between now and March.

Supreme Novice Hurdle ante-post verdict

Constitution Hill is certainly my idea of the winner. Still, he surely only drifts from his current 3.55/2 with Sir Gerhard and Jonbon both likely to run again and recency bias being the beast it is.

I have him clear top-rated as we speak and would fear Dysart Dynamo and Mighty Potter most should they turn up but just as much the unexposed nature of El Fabiolo, who could prove to be a very useful animal indeed.

The following month will reveal more, but I'm not sure Sir Gerhard is good enough and Dysart Dynamo does have the Ballymore option so it wouldn't be a big shock to see El Fabiolo turn up in this contest on the back of a good run in the Dublin Racing Festival.

Last term, I remember being in discussion suggesting that we need something to come out of the woodwork for next years Supreme Novice Hurdle given the lack of depth in the bumper division and the winner and runner-up's age. That I hope is Constitution Hill who sits top of the tree for me, but if you're looking for one at an each-way price now in January, El Fabiolo 21.020/1 could be the play.

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