Cheltenham Tips

Daryl Carter's Cheltenham Festival Handicap Best Bets: Mullins & McManus a duo to be backed

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter likes three handicappers at Cheltenham

Daryl Carter offers his three best handicap bets for the Cheltenham Festival ahead of the Festival weights announcement on Tuesday, and he says the bookies should be running scared of Willie Mullins and JP McManus...


Back Kopeck De Mee to win the Martin Pipe @ 5/16.00 NRNB 1pt

We will kick off with the best bet, JP McManus' and Willie Mullins' Kopeck De Mee. The case is simply French form and the natural improvement for the switch to Closutton.

Kopeck De Mee has been a springer in the handicap markets, and rightly so should the British Handicapper a lot, giving him his current French rating of 68KG (136). He has yet to make his debut for Willie Mullins and was last seen landing the Prix Miror Listed race in Auteuil by a comfortable four and a half lengths going away at the finish line.

That form is potent. The runner-up Karam Le Rouge had previously won over the same course and distance, beating Willie Mullins 153-rated Kitzbuhel with the pair some 13 lengths clear of the third. The same horse had also beaten Willie Mullins' Kawaboomga in March and had a subsequent Grade 3 winner in second, which ties in closely with the best of this year's Supreme Novice Hurdle form.

Kopeck De Mee had Zephyr De Beaumont in third, who won a Listed race before placing second in the Grade 1 Prix Renaud du Vivier - a race won in the past by familiar names such as Il Est Francias, Theleme and Master Dino. In fourth, Blueness had previously won at Compiegne and beat a subsequent Listed winner, and the 21-length fifth had back form, including a second to the useful Jigme and a 17-length fourth to Anzadam.

The seventh was given a British rating of 120 (equivalent to his French rating) when transferred to Nicky Henderson, and even the eighth won the next time over hurdles by seven lengths.

There's plenty of depth to the form to suggest Kopeck De Mee is one to keep on the side without considering his effortless Nantes victory or the natural improvement he will gain from the move to Willie Mullins. He has had five runs in France, and Willie Mullins could exploit the handicapper via a new route with this improving five-year-old.

There are multiple options, but with the NRMB concession, we can back him for the most likely: Martin Pipe. I am not sure why Willie Mullins would target the Coral Cup, given he could have the option of running in the similar bracketed handicap 0-145 in the Martin Pipe and avoid higher-rated horses. At The same time, I would favour the Martin Pipe over the County Hurdle, given he has already won twice over 2m2f on deep ground in France, and his full brother is a winner over 2m4f, and he has run over the middle distance trip on the flat.

He is not short of speed, and the Coral Cup lends itself more to a staying horse, while the Martin Pipe is a speedier race. I'd be stunned if he wasn't better than this rating of 136 and easily a mid- to high-140 horse, giving him ten pounds in hand. So keep watch for the handicap mark on Tuesday--anything 140 or below would be of interest.


Back The Changing Man to win the Ultima Handicap @ 9/110.00 1pt NRNB

If you're a trends man or woman, then you will like Joe Tizzard's The Changing Man, who fits nearly all of them for the Ultima Handicap Chase, and this improving eight-year-old can kick on now he has his head in front in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot.

He should get a good confidence booster from his latest victory, and the handicapper has been fair with a two-pound rise for that dominant victory. He has had a remarkable season, and his running style is well-suited for a Cheltenham Handicap. His form suggests he has more to offer from this rating of 140. His Ascot defeat to Victtorino is useful form, and they pulled nine lengths clear of the remainder of the field on that occasion. It bodes well that the winner and the nine-length third finished first and second over course and distance last week in the Swinley Handicap.

The gelding ran a nice race two years ago at this festival, staying on eighth in the Pertemps Final and fitted with the tongue-tie this term; he looks like an improved model.

He is slowly progressing and looks handicapped to have a big say in a race that has favoured the English in recent years.

He gets a confident vote at this stage, and 10/111.00 or bigger is fair value, as I expect him to go off a well-backed favourite.


Back Be Aware to win the Coral Cup at 13/27.50 NRNB 1pt

It's tough to mention handicaps and keep Dan Skelton's name out of the picture, and rightly so, as his Be Aware - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has been held back with this race in mind, returning to his former MO of keeping horses fresh since Christmas. A few years ago, you could always tell a Skelton plot job from their absence on the track since Christmas, and this is no different.

Their six-year-old has been lined up for this since his run at Ascot, and the Greatwood Hurdle runner-up looks well treated from a rating of 137. He is seven pounds higher than his seasonal Cheltenham debut when he chased home Burdett Road, who is now rated 17 lbs higher, and from that race, the sixth is now rated eight pounds higher. Be Aware is so lightly raced and unexposed at this trip he must have further improvement given his finishing effort in November.

Last year, he nearly had his big day in the Bet365 Novices Final at Sandown but was given too much to do, and the third is now rated 11lb higher.

He will relish this move up to 2m5f for just the second time in his career - the first saw him narrowly denied at Kempton by the 136-rated Kamsinas.

He is a big improver for this year's festival and must take high rank on any shortlist.


Now read more horse racing previews here!


GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

Cheltenham Video: Heated Exchange