Cheltenham Tips: The key horses to back in-play at the Festival

Peter Webb
10 March 2021
4:00 min read

The Gold Cup 2020 at the Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham is perfect for in-play betting

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With a number of long distance races and plenty of horses at decent odds, Cheltenham is a perfect opportunity to trade in-play. Peter Webb picks out his favourite trading opportunities across the Festival...

"Try to select horses that have a history of leading or being front runners. This will mean that as they make their way around the racecourse their odds will automatically shorten."

The Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of the jump racing season and offers a huge range of betting opportunities on the Betfair Exchange.

It's expected that over £15m will be matched in-play on the Exchange during the festival, so here's my easy to understand strategy to help you make the most of the markets.

Simple strategy

Dobbing is a back-to-lay strategy that's ideal for the Cheltenham Festival. 'Dob' is short for 'double or bust' because, if the bet loses you lose, but if it wins your lay bet returns double your back stake.

With this strategy you place one bet before the race starts and then place a closing bet at a lower price to get matched in-play.

The odds on the lay bet will always be half of the back bet, but the stake will be double.

How it works

To use the dobbing strategy, you would back something at odds of 10.09/1 on the Exchange for £10 and then place a lay bet on the same selection at 5.04/1 for £20.

If you get your lay bet matched in-play, you will win £10 regardless of who goes on to win race. If you don't get your lay bet matched, then you lose your initial £10 back bet.

You are effectively betting to evens that your selection will trade at a lower price in-play.

Finding a suitable race

This strategy involves looking for a horse that will get matched at a lower price in-play. So you need to find horses that are more likely to do this.

The price on runners will get shorter in-play if they look like they are going to win, so there is a natural limit to how you can best use this strategy.

If you place a back bet at odds of 2.01/1 before the start of the race then half of 2.01/1 is 1.0 and at odds of 1.011/100 your horse has, almost certainly, won the race.

So this is a strategy that is best used at much higher odds. At Cheltenham, most races have favourites that are at much higher odds. About 90% of races over the last 10 years have been odds against and that is what makes a strategy like this useful.

Finding suitable selections

Horses are herd animals and have a natural preference as to how they choose to run. In race terms, that means that some like to lead the pack and others prefer to follow.

If the horse has been run to its favoured style by the jockey, then towards the final section of the race it will be produced for the win.

Jockeys and punters can use this knowledge to their advantage - jockeys by getting the most out of a horse and punters by finding horses that will be clear and out of trouble.

If a horse likes to be prominent or lead then, as the time in the race elapses, their odds will shorten. This is perfect for this strategy.

So we're looking for favourites or second favourites, that like to lead, at decent odds.

As I'm writing this article in advance some runners may not get to the start line. But you can use the early position and pace maps on Timeform to qualify the running style on the day you place your bet.

Based upon current odds and recent runs here are some candidates for my strategy:

Tuesday, 13:55 - The Arkle: Energumene

Tuesday, 14:30 - Ultima Handicap chase: Lieutenant Rocco

Wednesday, 13:20 - Ballymore Novices Hurdle: Bob Olinger

Wednesday, 13:55 - Brown Advisory novices chase: Eklat De Rire

Thursday, 14:30 - Ryanair Chase: Min

Thursday, 16:50 - Kim Muir chase: Hold the Note

Friday, 15:15 - Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase: Colreevy

Friday, 16:50 - Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle: Gentlemen De Mee

Key points

With this strategy you are going to place a back bet at the best odds available before the race starts. You will immediately place a lay bet at half those odds in the market and change that to a 'keep' bet so that it will be matched in-play.

You need to choose a horse with odds above 2.01/1 or else you are essentially betting on it to win and may as well just have a straight bet.

Most money is matched on favourite and second favourites, so make sure your selection is focused around either of those, as that will increase your chances of getting matched.

Try to select horses that have a history of leading or being front runners. This will mean that as they make their way around the racecourse their odds will shorten.

In large fields they will also stay out of trouble and any fallers will shorten their price by default.

Follow the above guidelines and you should be able to find plenty of opportunities.

Good luck at the Cheltenham festival!

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