Cheltenham Tips for Thursday: Tony Calvin's magnificent seven bets for Day 3

• Tony's bet of the day is a very generous 14/115.00

• Two popular each-way plays in the Stayers' Hurdle

• Tony has seven bets from 5/16.00 to 33/134.00

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Rachael Blackmore Superboost

Rachael has an oustanding chance of winning today's Grade 1 Ryanair Chase aboard defending champion Envoi Allen, and the Betfair Sportsbook are giving you a supersonic boost by giving you a price of 1/12.00 that the horse finishes in the first four, boosted from 1/31.33!

I have found attractive bets hard to come by this week, but I make no excuses for that.

Indeed, it's not as if Responsible Gambling messages, and your usual punting MO, should be shelved just because it is the Cheltenham Festival.

13:30 - Turners Novices' Chase: No Bet

Anyway, let's crack on - especially as Thursday looks the best day yet - starting with the Turners at 13:30.

Now, this is a tricky one, all right.

The first thing that struck me was that Letsbeclearaboutit is in here, as his trainer said all along the Plate off 153 later on the card was his aim, and not this Grade 1.

Maybe Gavin Cromwell didn't fancy running his horse off top weight on what will still be very testing ground after the 11mm on Tuesday, with maybe another 3mm arriving on Thursday. Even so, it's a curious move given he is a 25s poke in here.

Take out Jamaico and only 8lb separates the other 10 runners on official ratings, and I couldn't see any clues from the likely pace map (see below for details, and headgear stats).

I could go around the houses and mention them all but, having looked at the race for the past week or so and again after the confirmed decs at 10am on Tuesday, I had pretty resigned myself to sitting this race out. Which is no bad thing.

You at least won't be losing after the first race anyway...

14:10 - Pertemps Final: Back Le Milos

I probably will be after the second, as it's the 24-runner Pertemps Final at 14:10, and it is 13/27.50 the field on Betfair, and it becomes 8s if you shop around.

I cannot resist a big-field handicap, although the weather has put me off my long-term fancy, Hyland. I'd be all over him on decent ground, but it ain't gonna be that.

And the stable form remains a massive worry, which means I have to reluctantly swerve Mill Green, third in the last two renewals of this race, as well.

The Sportsbook are paying six places but I am all over one here. Back Le Milos at 14/115.00 each way, six places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I wouldn't lay him at any double figures. He is easily my bet of the day, win and place.

I just can't believe the handicapper dropped him 4lb for his Ascot hurdles run over a clearly inadequate, extended 2m3f last time, especially as I don't think he was overly-busy here after a near three-month break.

Mind you, Dan Skelton gets his fair share of leniency from the assessor with his Cheltenham handicap entries.

That was clearly a tee-up job for this, a race in which he qualified for by finishing third of five at Market Rasen in November, and he is lobbed in here off 142 if running anywhere near his chase mark.

He was rated 152 after winning the old Hennessy in 2022 and, if it is still riding deep on Thursday, his record on heavy in in the UK is three from three.

I seriously can't believe the handicapper's lenient treatment of him; I wouldn't fall off my chair if he went off as favourite on the exchange.

14:50 - Ryanair Chase: Back Conflated

In the Ryanair at 14:50, I stuck up Fil D'Or each way on Weighed In's Footsteps To The Festival last month as I thought his recent 2m form against Dinoblue and El Fabiolo this season made him a major player.

However, this will be a test at 2m4f127yd now and the evidence of the form book so far suggests he is going to struggle with a stamina test.

As such, I have jumped ship to Conflated, who simple looks a cracking each way bet at 8/19.00 with the Sportsbook.

I know that seems a strange play for a horse that has failed to finish in three of his last five starts and trailed in last of five in one of the others, but he is surely the best horse in here on his best behaviour.

Just about, anyway.

In fact, he probably has two or three performances that make him the one to beat here, not least his third in the Gold Cup here last season, a trip that stretches his stamina.

I thought he would have finished second to Allaho in this race in 2022 (yes, I know, another non-finish) and he will surely be hard to kick out of the frame if standing up here.

15:30 - Stayers' Hurdle: Back Paisley Park & Dashel Drasher

This is the big tipping day for me, as I am going in two-handed each way, with the four places on offer, with Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher at 16/117.00 and 33/134.00 with the Sportsbook in the Stayers' Hurdle at 15:30.

I know they are 12yo and 11yo respectively but, as Phil Mitchell famously said of Kathy Beale in Eastenders, "oldies can be goodies."

Mind you, Gillian Taylforth still looks a good 10 years younger than her 68 pegs.

Back to the racing, though. I will shelve my love for TV pensioners.

I think the case for Paisley Park at 16s is glaringly obvious.

A previous winner of this race, his Cheltenham pedigree is in no doubt, and he has just been beaten in three photos this season by Dashel Drasher, Crambo and Noble Yeats, and the last two are far shorter in the betting here for some reason.

That in turns leads me to last season's ¾-length runner-up (a nose ahead of the favourite Teahupoo) Dashel Drasher, who will love the ground and who has been running well this season.

They may not win, but the each-way terms at the current prices dictate that I have to be with them.

16:10 - Plate Handicap: Back Theatre Man

I am going to do something very unlike me and that is to say that a market leader in a big-field handicap is well worth backing.

Step forward Theatre Man at 5/16.00 each way, four places, in the Plate at 16:10. I simply couldn't get away from him, and I fancied very few against him at the prices. I'd have him favourite over Crebilly.

And when I said I fancied very few against him, I actually meant nothing.

I know he has been tumbling down the prices in the last fortnight but this race looks very weak for a Plate on the day, and indeed it is three shy of filling the maximum field of 24.

Theatre Man may not have won this season and has gone up 5lb for those three defeats, but he has screamed as an ideal candidate for this in two Newbury defeats, and a second to Ginnys Destiny here, with the third well beaten off.

If you don't at least get your money back when backing him each way at 5s, five places, a fifth the odds, then I apologise.

16:50 - Mares' Novices' Hurdle: No Bet

The only play I can see in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at 16:50 is Dysart Enos each way at 9/25.50 as she has great bumper form, she has won here and she has mopped up three soft races, which has resulted in her being unpenalized.

However, I do respect the front two, so I will swerve this from a tipping point of view. I may have a few quid on her myself, but nothing of any particularly note to prompt me to tip her. It's a busy punting day after all, and the Irish could yet be a class apart.

And the 9/25.50 each way looks a very filfthy bet too, in all honesty.

I have some betting integrity.

Not much, but some. And, even more importantly, she has just been trimmed into 4s.

17:30 - Kim Muir: Back Bowtogreatness and Whacker Clan

The Kim Muir at 17:30 looks rather tricky to say the least, but I am also going in two-handed here with Bowtogreatness and Whacker Clan win-only at 12.011/1 and 13.012/1 respectively on the exchange.

I am a bit worried about the ground for Bowtogreatness but he shaped like an immediate winner in waiting off this mark at Kempton last time. He is available at 12s in six places on the Oddschecker grid as this goes live.

The Sportsbook's 11/112.00 is obviously very acceptable.

Whacker Clan beat Tuesday's Ultima runner-up Twig here by 3 lengths here in October and they have presumably been keen to protect his mark (just 6lb higher here) since, giving him a break and running him over hurdles over a sub-2m last time.

Not exactly subtle.

In fact, the Kim Muir was namechecked for this race immediately after the October win here and I'd be pretty keen on his chances, for all the ground is a slight worry.

The general 14s in the marketplace (available in five places) looks far too big, so do what you have to do, As is the 12s in a dozen betting ports of call.

Any 10s or bigger looks hunky dory, in truth.

I may be back with an update on Wednesday in this column, if the prices dictate.

Good luck.

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS FOR THURSDAY:

Henderson - blinkers 4-54 (since 2009)

Henderson - cheekpieces 17-79 (2016)

McConnell - hood 3-52 (2013)

Nicholls - blinkers 12-78 (2009)

Joseph O'Brien - blinkers 10-112 (2016)

Tizzard - pieces 2-13 (2022), Colin 4-29 (2016)

NOTE: Noble Yeats has run in a tongue-tie and cheekpieces but not a combination of the two, as he does on Thursday

PACE MAPS- probable/possible forward-goers (manually done, not autogenerated):

TURNERS: Ginnys Destiny, Djelo, Le Patron?, Zanahiyr

PERTEMPS: Farouk d'Alene?, Bold Endeavour, Gowel Road, Cleatus Poolaw, Cuthbert Dibble, Prairie Dancer, Kyntara

RYANAIR: Ahoy Senor, Protektorat, Stage Star, Conflated

STAYERS: Champ? Dashel Drasher, Flooring Porter

PLATE: Il Ridoto, Glengouly, Saint Felicien, Life In The Park, Theatre Man, Frero Banbou, Torn And Frayed?

MARES: Jade De Grugy? Casa No Mento, Mollys Mango, Titanium Moon, Victoria Milano

KIM MUIR: Annual Invictus, Fakir D'alene, Cloudy Glen, Cool Survivor, Demnat, Whacker Clan

Cheltenham Day Three | Racing Only Bettor - watch here!

Cheltenham Day Three | Paul's Ditcheat Decs - watch here!

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