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Cheltenham Festival News: Potter has almighty chance of weaving his magic in Turners

Daryl Carter
16 March 2023
4 min read

Mighty Potter and Davy Russel lead in after winning at Leopardstown.

Mighty Potter out to prove he is a 2024 Gold Cup contender.

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It's day three of the Cheltenham Festival, and after landing his NAP Impaire Et Passe plus a Coral Cup 1-2, Daryl Carter is back with all the daily racing news, stats and betting info as we switch to the New course...

Daryl looks for a third winning NAP of the week
Stats and betting info and through the card verdicts
Weather and going report for Day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham weather and going

There was rain overnight at Cheltenham, but on Thursday 16th of March, the outlook is mainly dry with the odd shower around 16:00, according to the Met Office.

The official going report for the New Course is below.

Today we switch to the new course, here is the Going ahead of St. Patrick's Thursday #CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/rrhw9jLdqD
-- CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) March 16, 2023

13:30 Turners Novice Chase

Biggest market mover in this race in the last 24hrs:

No. 1

Appreciate It (Ire)

Trainer: W. P. Mullins, Ireland
Jockey: P. Townend
Age: 9
Weight: 11st 7lbs
OR: -

WAS 4/1

Race stats:

Eleven of the last 12 have been 6 or 7 years old.
Take out: Appreciate It, Unexpected Party, Christopher Wood.

All 12 winners ran at a previous Festival.

Irish trained nine of the 12.

10 of the last 11 won their last completed chase

Daryl's race verdict:

This can go to the very promising Mighty Potter (NAP), who looked cut from a different cloth at the Dublin Racing Festival when powering clear on the run in. He needs to put the Supreme Novice Hurdle performance behind him, but he is a classy horse and easily has the brightest future of these.

14:10 Pertemps Final

Biggest market mover in this race in the last 24hrs:

No. 5

Good Time Jonny (Ire)

Trainer: A. J. Martin, Ireland
Jockey: L. A. McKenna
Age: 8
Weight: 11st 9lbs
OR: 142

WAS 10/1

Race stats:

Gordon Elliott ran ten between 2017 and 2021. Three won. The other seven finished at least 5th

Nine of the last 11 had less than nine hurdle runs.

Six of the last seven wore tongue ties

Daryl's race verdict:

This can go to Gordon Elliott's Maxxum, who looked right out of the top draw when scoring on his penultimate start by 16 lengths and can easily be forgiven his run at the Dublin Racing Festival when not getting the rub of the green. Interestingly connections have decided not to claim off of him, and his time figures have hinted that he could be a graded horse in a handicap.

14:50 Ryanair Chase

Biggest market mover in this race in the last 24hrs:

No. 8

Janidil (Fr)

Trainer: W. P. Mullins, Ireland
Jockey: M. P. Walsh
Age: 9
Weight: 11st 10lbs
OR: -

WAS 7/1

Race stats:

The last ten winners aged between seven and nine.

Eleven of the last 15 had already won a Grade 1.

The last 13 winners already rated 161+

Eleven of the last 15 were course winners

Daryl's race verdict:

Shishkin is a class apart from his rivals here and makes stacks of appeal, taking on inferior horses which, in the main, don't stay three miles and are not quick enough for two. Shishkin romped back to form at Ascot and is a clear stand-out.

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15:30 Stayers Hurdle

Biggest market mover in this race in the last 24hrs:

No. 11

Teahupoo (Fr)

Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Ireland
Jockey: Davy Russell
Age: 6
Weight: 11st 10lbs
OR: -

WAS 10/3 - Little movement in this market.

Race stats:

In the last 50 years, only six horses aged nine or older have won. Five had previously won at the festival.

Eight of the last nine were aged either 6 or 7 yrs.

Seven of the last nine were second-season hurdlers.

Seventeen of the last 19 finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

Daryl's race verdict:

I have been laughed at for keeping faith with Sire Du Berlais, but I don't mind. At wild odds, he is worth having a small each-way bet, but whether he can turn over the young legs of Blazing Khal remains to be seen. Charles Byrnes' runner is the first selection, having improved leaps and bounds to score in the Boyne Hurdle after an absence, and he is an appealing price given his unexposed profile in a race like this.

16.10 Plate Handicap

Biggest market mover in this race in the last 24hrs:

No. 3

Stolen Silver (Fr)

Trainer: Sam Thomas
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Age: 8
Weight: 11st 11lbs
OR: 154

WAS 20/1

Race stats:

Four of the last five SP not bigger than 5/1.

Ten of the last 11 aged six to nine years.

Eight of the last nine had less than 11 previous chase runs.

The last nine BHA rated at least 140

Daryl's race verdict:

You can make cases for a good few of these, including Il Ridoto, Datsalrightgino and Midnight River, but the one that appeals most is So Scottish. The current market leader looks particularly well-handicapped and is certain to have been laid out for this, with connections protecting his rating for the last 117 days and connections having won this with a similar type in The Shunter in 2017.

16:50 Jack De Bromhead Mares Novice Hurdle

Biggest market mover in this race in the last 24hrs:

No. 10

Jetara (Ire)

Trainer: Mrs J. Harrington, Ireland
Jockey: S. F. O'Keeffe
Age: 5
Weight: 11st 2lbs
OR: -

WAS 33/1

Race stats:

Four winners from the last six runnings were second-season novices.

Willie Mullins has won this five times.

No horse with headgear has won.

Daryl's race verdict:

Luccia will prove very tough to beat, but she is the right price, and there is a more interesting runner in her stablemate Under Control, who won so well at Newbury recently and has been parachuted in here at the final hour. She gets a hefty 10 lbs weight allowance for being a four-year-old, but she is talented, and running to around 125 with that weight advantage may be enough.

It's also worth giving a good mention to Ahorsewithnoname, who has the strongest form easily in this line up with an excellent second in this race last year, and there is a very good stat (second-season novice) that suggests she is not to be ignored. Back the pair.

17:30 Kim Mur Handicap Chase

Biggest market mover in this race in the last 24hrs:

No. 23

Ballykeel (Ire)

Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Ireland
Jockey: Mr H. C. Swan
Age: 7
Weight: 10st 12lbs
OR: 129

WAS 40/1

Race stats:

Six of the last 20 winners finished in the first three last time out.

The last four winners were novices.

Ten of the last 11 rated between 137 and 143.

The last 18 winners raced at least twice that season.

Daryl's race verdict:

The horse in this field that could make up into a top-class chaser is Mr Incredible. Formerly with Henry De Bromhead, he looked an improved model for the switch to Willie Mullins' yard with an excellent second last time out in the Warwick Classic Chase, and he has been let off very lightly by the UK handicapper with just a three pounds rise considering the form has worked out well.

Cheltenham Festival Focus runners

Daryl Carter Saturday Racing Tips.png

Mighty Potter 7/2 Turners Chase (2pt)

I am really happy with out positon as Mighty Potter is now 5/6 with the Betfair Sportsbook. He is our captain and I am full of confidence that he can land us a winner. Would I go in again now I know the final field? Yes, I think he still represents value here.

Banbridge 10/1 Turners Chase

I am happy to have him on side but the rain overnight and into this morning is no positive to his chances. I wouldn't back him now at his current price that has drifted alarmingly.

Maxxum 7/1 Pertemps Final

I've been keen on him for much of the season since recording an excellent time figure. He will go off favourite and if you're not on, get on.

Shishkin 7/1 Ryanair Chase

Looks like a cracking ante-post price. If he runs to his Ascot form he will take all the beating now trading odds-on.

Sire Du Berlais 100/1 Stayers Hurdle

Just as expected, only 11 runners have declared and he is still a big price but by no means one to ignore!

So Scottish 16/1 Plate Handicap

Now 7/2 favourite for this contest and I think he has all the attributes to follow in The Shunter's footsteps.

Final Word

We are only halfway through, and the battle with the bookmakers continues into day three today. I can't wait to see Mighty Potter, who could be a class above his rivals today with a similar performance to his Leopardstown romp. The ground has come in his favour, and this could be a real punters day should he fly in and get us off to a great start.

Mighty Potter, Shishkin, So Scottish, and Luccia could see bookmakers running for cover on Friday.

If things are not going your way, keep faith in your selections and thinking. It's very important not to be swayed and change tact because of two tough days.

Until tomorrow, be lucky.

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