Cheltenham Festival Focus: Punish the handicapper with 3pt hit on Dan!

The Cheltenham Festival is only ten days away and given there wasn't a whole host of festival-related action this week, I wanted to highlight a few stats that I standby.

First off, we must mention a few horses likely to swerve the Cheltenham Festival in favour of Aintree. Nicky Henderson's Walking On Air, as short as 8.07/1 for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle, will likely head to Aintree, according to reports this week.

Unbeaten mare Mullenburg who was due to run in the Champion Bumper and will likely miss the festival in favour of Aintree and Zanza - although not confirmed - is entered in both the Festival Plate and Ultima Handicap could favour the Merseyside venue also.

How vital are stats at the festival?

First off, let's mention that stats can be manipulated to support or deter an argument for or against any horse, and they are not absolutes given when broken new ones appear each year. The classier horse can also bury any stat, so they should never be solely relied upon. There are two that I care about. Any more than these two, and I tend to mess up my brain, and it won't be long before I have a tape measure on the blades of grass.

There will be plenty of stats banded around at you this week. No horse has won the Supreme Novice Hurdle without going left-handed is one that's just a reason to not like a horse. It's probably the worst stat of all time, in all honesty.

Every stat has boundaries, even the seven-year-old one I mentioned below, which is just a personal preference, by the way.

Age

In Grade 1 races at the Cheltenham Festival, horses aged ten years or older are just five from 195. That's a huge stat for the likes of Paisley Park, Champ, Santini, Chacun Pour Soi, Alboum Photo and friends to defy, so it shouldn't be underestimated.

I am a stickler for age, especially in the Novice events at the festival. Last year 69% of races (18 of the 26) went to horses aged six or seven, and that's too big of a number to just ignore in a general sense.

Careful with the seven-year-olds in both the Supreme Novice Hurdle and the Ballymore - I was stung with this one with Champ in the Ballymore a few years ago.

Sixty-six horses aged seven and above have run in the Supreme Novice Hurdle in the last 26 years, and only three have won. It could be a case of the younger Novices progress throughout the season physically and mentally and catching up with their already battle-hardened and experienced elders. Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit are both seven-year-olds, and that is just a stat I can't ignore - again.

The Ballymore Novices Hurdle is no getting out of jail free card either. Only two seven-year-olds have won the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle in the last 44 years, so Sir Gerhard stepping up in trip, for example, wouldn't excite me either.

Course form

"I like course form" is a phrase banded around quite often, and I agree with the statement, but the facts don't suggest you need it to win. Of the 451 races, 53% have been won by horses that have previously placed at the course. 47% are won by those that have never seen the Cheltenham track, but it's like a comfort pillow knowing that your horse has handled the unique test of Prestbury Park. I can't be alone in this one, surely?

Horses that havent made this list - god damn it!

We have one week left after today, but there are some horses that haven't made this list as of yet, and probably won't because of a price crash. Drop The Anchor in the Coral Cup is a horse I gave a heavy mention to on the Cheltenham Roarcast when not even in the betting on the Betfair Sportsbook - he was introduced after at 17.016/1, but that didn't last long. He is now a 8.07/1 chance, so the value has well and truly dried up thanks to Betfair associate Kevin Blake - god damn you Blake!

You all know how much I like State Man 5.59/2 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, well, any damn hurdle race. In all honesty, I waited too long to get him in the column, and the money has come for him now. He still might make it because I can't see past him and Langer Dan 6.05/1 (read below), and even if he becomes a saver next week (I still don't know where he goes), there may be some an inch of value - let's see.

Galvin 4.57/2 for the Gold Cup is one that got away, but I still fancy his chances, although he will probably be a similar price on the day.

We can round off the column next week, but let's get a couple more on the board.

Silver hunting for gold

Stolen Silver 21.020/1 for the Festival Plate won't be everyone's cup of tea, given he is one pound below a career-high handicap mark and needs forgiving his last two outings, which were beyond poor, but he has been freshened up since then, and he is unexposed at this trip.

He ran a scorcher here at the November meeting three starts ago when he chased home Editeur De Gite and attempted to give him five pounds, and first run. He fairly blitzed up the hill to chase down the long time leader - who is now 13lbs higher in the handicap, and he has been screaming for this 2 1/2 mile trip for some time. Connections sent him to Sandown in a Grade 1 contest next time, which he had no hope of winning and then Wincanton, where the ground was dire and indeed not to his liking.

Back on spring ground and back at Cheltenham, he could have ideal conditions to play a strong hand here. His hurdle form entitles him to plenty of respect, and he was on an upward curve for this trainer this season. He is a second season Novice who has some good form over fences, albeit long in the memory when chasing home Eldorado Allen (beaten six lengths) and Allmankind last season. He is a forgotten horse in this contest, and the 20/1 looks worth catching.

Langer Dan's handicap mark is a gift from above and 5.04/1 is value

Last season's Martin Pipe runner-up Langer Dan 5.04/1 did remarkably well from the rear of the field in a steadily run race only to bump into a very, very smart horse in Galopin Des Champs. That rival had first run on Dan Skelton's runner who had to weave himself through a forest of horses to get to the Mullins' runner's quarters and used up plenty of petrol in doing so. That run was off a handicap mark of 135, and given the pair pulled 11 lengths clear of the field, he has only been beaten two lengths, and the victor is a subsequent dual Grade 1 winner - it is impossible not to back at his current odds.

This has been the target, and after what can only be described as a "pipe opener" at Taunton, when given a very soft ride, it's nothing short of remarkable that the handicapper dropped him 3lbs for his efforts. That is some very lenient handicapping, and punters are encouraged to punish it.

He now sits just 2lbs above that Martin Pipe run, and as much as I love State Man, he has to prove he is well handicapped (which he probably is), and we don't know his final target at the time of writing. I can't see past the pair here, and should it be confirmed that State Man goes elsewhere, this could be the bet of the week.

Should State Man come here, we can have a saver. Langer Dan will surely go off a well-gambled favourite when this race cuts up - 5/2 11/4 - in my book, and now is the time to get on.