Cheltenham Festival Focus: Favourites Ranked and 10/1 and 5/1 Handicap bets

• Back Kopeck for Martin Pipe glory

• The Changing Man can land the Ultima Handicap

• All Cheltenham Festival favourites are ranked!

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In what is the penultimate Cheltenham Festival Focus of the season, Daryl Carter offers up some of his best handicap bets for the Cheltenham Festival before the weights announcement on Tuesday.

Daryl also looks at each Cheltenham Festival favourite, ranks them from best to worst with a star system, and highlights some interesting form lines from the week that was.

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Slow time tempers enthusiasm for Jade

On Thursday at Punchestown, High Class Hero made his second chase start by winning one by downing stablemate Loughglynn. This was a fair performance, and all roads lead to the Brown Advisory for the winner 33/134.00, while the runner-up is said to be staying at home. HighClass Hero is a useful prospect, and we haven't seen the best of him yet, but one suspects he is more of a high 140's horse than the 160 beast needed for a Festival victory.

Also on the Punchestown card on Thursday, Jade De Grugy scored in the Quevega Mares Hurdle Grade 3 on her seasonal debut and was cut into 5/23.50 NRMB for the Mares Hurdle. That looks short with the market trying to get ahead of the game regarding Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth's potential Champion Hurdle participation.

This performance was visually impressive, but it was a slow time figure, and the form does not suggest she has improved on last year's efforts. She rates a risky proposition.

Gameofinches won the closing bumper on the Punchestown card for Willie Mullins. This performance was brilliant, winning as he liked in a canter by nearly five lengths. Is he a worthy 3/14.00 favourite for the Champion Bumper? I have no idea. There is no evidence other than the visual impression.

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Oh, he will be in the Supreme Munny

Comfortably, the best performance from the past week was William Munny, who won the Listed Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Thursday by 15 lengths. This is a smart horse. He effortlessly glided clear of admittedly inferior rivals, including C'Est Ta Chance, who put in a no-show effort.

Still, the time was very good compared to the rest of the races on the card, including the bumper, and he has to be considered a Supreme hope, particularly when delving into the time figure performance of his defeat to the smart Kawaboomga at Fairyhouse in January.

Impressive!

William Munny makes it third time lucky over hurdles, paying a handsome compliment to the Fairyhouse form of Kawaboomga.

William Munny surely wouldn't be out of place in the Supreme?@punchestownrace pic.twitter.com/VNZRVClbMU

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 20, 2025

The Fairyhouse defeat has clocked one of the season's best time figures from the novice hurdle scene, falling foul only to Kopek Des Bordes' Leopardstown demolition job and on par with Romeo Coolio's latest win.

Along with this performance, which must be rated in the high 140s bracket, he should be on any shortlist to claim at least place money in the Supreme Novice Hurdle.

He is proven under all ground conditions and has racked up back-to-back championship-worthy times. He was taken aback today rather than making the running as he did at Fairyhouse, and coming from off the pace suited him much better. He must learn to settle but should be considered in the W/O favourite market on the day.

As I have them, the leading novices read as follows for the 2m and 2 m5f divisions.

2m
Kopek Des Bordes 155
Kawaboomga 150
William Munny 149
Romeo Coolio 148
Workahead 142
Salvator Mundi 138

2m5f
Final Demand 150
Kawaboomga 150
The Yellow Clay 147
The New Lion 145

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Ranking the Cheltenham Festival favourites 1-5⭐

Day 1

Supreme Novice Hurdle - 10/111.91 Kopek Des Bordes ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

@DanBarberTF: "Everything about Kopek des Bordes screamed top-class hurdler in the making.

"Those who share @Timeform's view won't have to wait long to have that belief confirmed when he lines up next month for the curtain-raising @SkyBet Supreme."pic.twitter.com/jrmzy53DMl https://t.co/A2FlJLhs4C

-- Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) February 11, 2025

You can make up all the fantasies you like about what could or couldn't happen in the preliminaries at the Cheltenham Festival, but the facts are he is the speed figure horse, the form horse and the stand-out Supreme Novice candidate. Everything else is out of the punter's hands, but you can say he will be bigger than his current 10/111.91 on the day, and I can't wait to get stuck in.

Arkle - Majborough 4/71.57 ⭐⭐⭐

Sir Gino is not running, so I could quickly reel out the poor record of five-year-olds in the Arkle, but I won't. Well, I may. There are frailties in the jumping department, and this sharp old course could be a worry for his backers. Still, his engine is the biggest, and taking him on means you are hoping he makes a mistake, and that's not always the correct way to bet.

Ultima - Masaccio 7/18.00

He doesn't even get a one-star for me. He is a dreadful favourite, and I can see no strong case for why he would place, let alone win this.

Mares Hurdle - Brighterdaysahead 8/151.53 ⭐

Her class might get her through, but I am not convinced Cheltenham is her track. She has been flattered this season, and I would have Lossiemouth to run all over her at Cheltenham.

Champion Hurdle - Constitution Hill 8/131.61 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

He is back and has had a clear run at the Champion Hurdle, and I expect him to regain his crown against inferior mares. Let's hope Brighterdaysahead runs so a higher price is available!

Boodles - Stencil 5/16.00 ⭐⭐

You'd have to like how he travelled behind East India Dock at Cheltenham in a well-run race, and he wasn't overly hard done by at the finish. His French rating of 134 is fair, but this is a big field race with many hidden improvers.

National Hunt Chase - Now Is The Hour 7/24.50 ⭐⭐

This is not that deep, and Gavin Cromwell has had this as a target all season, and he has been ridden with handicaps in mind. Don't judge him too harshly on the last day he had to qualify for this and was rousted to do so late on. Interesting.

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Day 2

Turners - Final Demand 7/42.75 ⭐⭐⭐

He has a high cruising speed and an unknown ceiling while leaving a deep impression on his latest outing. However, he will need this run at an end-end gallop and could be vulnerable to a tactical affair. It's hard to pick holes in him.

Brown Advisory - Ballyburn 7/42.75 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BALLYBURN showed plenty of grit to win the Ladbrokes Novice Chase pic.twitter.com/2whvWuNA5b

-- Racing Post (@RacingPost) February 2, 2025

Rock-solid, with abundant stamina, course winner, ground versatile, best jockey, best form, and a sharp turn of foot. Find the negatives?

Coral Cup - Kopeck De Me 6/17.00

Poor favourite, as he won't run here.

X Country - Stumptown 9/43.25 ⭐⭐

He was outstanding at the December meeting, and while he has been given a lofty rating of 157 since, he could still be improving. If he can carry the weight, if, he will be hard to beat.

Champion Chase - Jonbon 5/61.84 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

What a star! Jonbon puts Energumene in his place in the @BetMGM Clarence House Chase at @Ascot @sevenbarrows @NdeBoinville

pic.twitter.com/ReXtHVqr0B

-- Sky Sports Racing (@SkySportsRacing) January 18, 2025

This is his year, and his rivals have done nothing to enhance their claims while his form has taken boosts. He looks like a very worthy and deserving favourite.

Grand Annual - Libberty Hunter 7/18.00 ⭐

He is said to be running in the Champion Chase, and given his racing style, he would need to pass plenty of horses to win here.

Champion Bumper - Gameofinches 3/14.00 ⭐

He looked visually impressive, but 3/14.00? That's not for me.

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Day 3

Mares Novice Hurdle - Sixandahalf 3/14.00 ⭐

I much prefer Maughreen's claims, as there is something about her that screams class. The popularity of Sixandahalf also puts me off a touch. There are plenty of potential improvers in this field to make me swerve her.

Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase - Jagwar 5/16.00 ⭐

There's so much quality in this contest that it's hard to rate him as banker material.

Pertemps Handicap - Jeriko Du Reponet 11/26.50 ⭐

It's crazy that he would have been running in the Arkle if all had gone to plan with Jeriko Du Reponet this year. He might find stronger stayers in this, including the one that beat him in his qualifier, Catch Him Derry.

Ryanair Chase - Fact To File 6/42.50 ⭐⭐⭐

He is top-class, but it's best to hold fire with the opposition unknown. Il Est Francais could have him chasing shadows yet.

Stayers Hurdle - Teahupoo EVENS ⭐

There are poor preparations, and then there's Teahupoo's. Coming here fresh is by design, but he was abysmal in the Hatton's Grace, and this year, he has hungry youngsters looking to dethrone him, and the pensioners he beat last term are no longer around.

Plate Handicap - Jagwar 5/16.00 ⭐

He won't run here, and I'd be keen to take him on if he did!

Kim Muir - Sa Majeste 7/18.00

This horse again. Another that doesn't get a star. He is a woeful favourite, slow as an old boat, and he bombed out at this meeting when he was close to being a favourite for the Martin Pipe last year--Groundhog Day.

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Day 4

Triumph Hurdle - East India Dock ⭐⭐⭐

He is the speed-figure horse who has achieved enough to win any recent renewals of the Triumph Hurdle. However, I wonder if he has already piqued and is vulnerable to something on a more stern upward curve. Decisions are yet to be made here.

County Hurdle - McLaurey 5/16.00 ⭐

You can make many cases in this, and only future Grade 1 winners Saint Roi and State Man have been winning favourites in the last ten years.

Mares Chase - Dinoblue 2/13.00 ⭐⭐⭐

It's more the lack of competition that sees last year's runner-up at the head of the market, but it's hard to find something to beat her.

Albert Bartlett - The Yellow Clay 3/14.00 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

He would be a strong favourite for this contest. He ticks all the trends and criteria I set for this race each year, so he would have an excellent chance.

Gold Cup - Galopin Des Champs 8/151.53 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Galopin Des Champs - three Irish Gold Cups at his beloved @LeopardstownRC

22 runs
14 wins
Irish Gold Cup
Savills Chase
Cheltenham Gold Cup
John Durkan Memorial
11 G1 victories
Superstar pic.twitter.com/5b0eVnKdsL

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 1, 2025

A third Gold Cup awaits, and only a mistake stands in his way. He is looking more and more like a good thing!

Hunters Chase - Its On The Line 11/43.75 ⭐

He threw in a poor one at Naas, and this race is deeper than his price suggests.

Martin Pipe - Kopeck De Mee 5/16.00 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Should he be allotted his French rating, he would go down as one of the handicap bankers for me. He holds some striking form lines that tie in with the Supreme Novice Hurdle!

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Back Kopeck De Mee to win the Martin Pipe @ 5/16.00 NRMB 2pt

We will start with the best bet, JP McManus' and Willie Mullins' Kopeck De Mee. The case uses French form and the natural improvement of switching to Clousutton.

Kopeck De Mee has been a springer in the handicap markets, and rightly so should the British Handicapper give him his current French rating of 68KG (136). He has yet to make his debut for Willie Mullins and was last seen landing the Prix Miror Listed race in Auteuil by a comfortable four and a half lengths going away at the finish line.

That form is potent. The runner-up Karam Le Rouge had previously won over the same course and distance, beating Willie Mullins 153-rated Kitzbuhel with the pair some 13 lengths clear of the third. The same horse had also beaten Willie Mullins' Kawaboomga in March and had a subsequent Grade 3 winner in second, which ties in closely with the best of this year's Supreme Novice Hurdle form.

Kopeck De Mee had Zephyr De Beaumont in third, who won a Listed race before placing second in the Grade 1 Prix Renaud du Vivier - a race won in the past by familiar names such as Il Est Francias, Theleme and Master Dino. In fourth, Blueness had previously won at Compiegne and beat a subsequent Listed winner, and the 21-length fifth had back form, including a second to the useful Jigme, and a 17-length fourth to Anzadam.

When transferred to Nicky Henderson, the seventh was given a British rating of 120 (equivalent to his French rating), and even the eighth won the next time over hurdles by seven lengths.

There's plenty of depth to the form to suggest Kopeck De Mee is one to keep on the side without considering his effortless Nantes victory or the natural improvement he will gain from the move to Willie Mullins. He has had five runs in France, and Willie Mullins could exploit the handicapper via a new route with this improving five-year-old whose qualifying runs were not showing up on the Racing Post website.

There are multiple options, but with the NRMB concession, we can back him for the most likely: Martin Pipe. I am not sure why Willie Mullins would target the Coral Cup, given he could have the option of running in the similar bracketed handicap 0-145 in the Martin Pipe and avoid higher-rated horses. At The same time, I would favour the Martin Pipe over the County Hurdle, given he has already won twice over 2m2f on deep ground in France, and his full brother is a winner over 2m4f, and he has run over the middle distance trip on the flat.

He is not short of speed, and the Coral Cup lends itself more to a staying horse, while the Martin Pipe is a speedier race. I'd be stunned if he wasn't better than this rating of 136 and easily a high-140 horse on the bare form, giving him ten pounds in hand. With the weights due to come out on Tuesday, I want to get ahead of what's left of this curve, as he has the potential to go off very short indeed.

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Back The Changing Man to win the Ultima Handicap @ 10/111.00 1pt NRMB

If you're a trends man or woman, then you will like Joe Tizzard's The Changing Man, who fits nearly all of them for the Ultima Handicap, and this improving eight-year-old can kick on now he has his head in front in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot.

He should get a good confidence booster from his latest victory, and the handicapper has been fair with a two-pound rise for that dominant victory. He has had a remarkable season, and his running style is well-suited for a Cheltenham Handicap. His form suggests he has more to offer from this rating of 140. His Ascot defeat to Victtorino is useful form, and they pulled nine lengths clear of the remainder of the field on that occasion. It bodes well that the winner and the nine-length third finished first and second over course and distance last week in the Swinley Handicap.

He ran a nice race two years ago at this festival, staying on eighth in the Pertemps Final and fitted with the tongue-tie this term; he looks like an improved model. He is slowly progressing and looks handicapped to have a big say in a race favouring the English in recent years.

He gets a confident vote at this stage, and 10/111.00 or bigger is fair value, as I expect him to go off a well-backed favourite.

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