Cheltenham Festival Focus: Appreciate the girls

Did you hear that echoing of a colossal smash during the week? That was my heart breaking into a thousand pieces as news broke that our Cheltenham Festival Arkle captain and 2pt win selection bet at 7/2 into 11/10 Ferny Hollow was declared injured for the remainder of the season!

That was a huge blow for us, so we will need some luck to fall our way to turn this into a good profit, but all hope is not lost!

This week we take a look back at Cheltenham Festival Trials Day, compare a few races in search of Festival clues and re-wind the week to pick up some notable performances.

We are just over six weeks out from Cheltenham, and I will be adding three selections to the column this week.

Allaho simply a force to be reckoned with

Allaho ran another fine race at Thurles last Sunday to cement his name at the top of the Ryanair market 5/4 in his bid for back to back wins at the Cheltenham Festival, and he looks as though he will prove very tough to beat.

He claimed the scalp of old adversary Fakir D'oudairies by 12 lengths confirming his superiority over that rival just as he did last season at Cheltenham. The runner-up made a bad blunder at the first flight, which always saw him on the back foot, but he was no match for the winner, who was dominant at every point in the race.

Fakir D'oudairies a clear second best and now a 15.014/1 chance for the Ryanair. He seemingly looks to be playing for places as his small stature was dwarfed yet again by the imposing frame of Allaho, but he is 5/1 in the without Allaho market which could be an angle closer to the time.

It's hard to see any chinks in the armour of Allaho at this time, although they say never be scared of one horse, and it's a race to revisit in a few weeks.

On the same card, Gerri Colombe remained unbeaten and is now four from four in his short career and cemented his claims of running in the Albert Bartlett in March. He is as short as 9.08/1 for that contest, but his level of form is no more than ok at this point.

I have him rated around 140-142, and that wouldn't be good enough in a typical year, but he is a very dour stayer and looks like a genuine horse who would need to be considered should it come up soft (unlikely to as previous years suggest) and he is on the upgrade.

Stayers Hurdle division blown apart in a week to forget for favourite backers

Klassical Dream's bid for Cheltenham glory turned into a nightmare as he could only manage fourth at odds of 1/3 at Gowran Park on Thursday after suffering defeat to Royal Kahala. The former was pushed out in the Stayers Hurdle market to 5/1 on the back of this effort, while the latter now is a 12/1 chance.

It was pretty disappointing from Willie Mullins' Klassical Dream, considering he had a soft lead, and there looked to be very few excuses if any. It still begs the question, why did they run here just 30 days after his Punchestown victory, given his excellent record fresh?

Klassical Dream is a brilliant horse. Still, given the lengths he stole at the tape at Punchestown over Flooring Porter, and now this performance, he is not looking the strongest candidate for 3m at this time.

Royal Kahala will need the ground to come up soft to be considered.

Fast forward to Saturday at Cheltenham, and the stayers hurdle division was rocked yet again as odds-on favourite Champ 8/15 was beaten by Paisley Park 5/1 in the Cleeve Hurdle.

Champ was pushed out to 7.06/1, and Paisley Park plummeted in from 21.020/1 to 8.07/1 for Stayers Hurdle glory in March.

It was a remarkable victory for Paisley Park, who lost between 12-15 lengths at the start of the race when almost refusing to run. He switched on his trademark afterburners to run down Champ, who hung left after the final flight and powered up the hill.

This was impressive by Paisley Park. It's tough to make excuses for Champ on this occasion, who might prove to be better away from Cheltenham for this performance was almost identical to that of his Ballymore defeat.

Even as Champ's biggest fan, I got the deflating feeling of that's it, it's done - and I am not usually the type to hit it and quit it.

The tongue tie has only been worn twice by Paisley Park, but it seems to have worked the oracle on this evidence. However, he is difficult to back. He is now ten-years-old, and won't get away with what he did at the start of the race in the big one. You can't help but like him, but he is untrustworthy, and my brain is telling me to be cautious.

On Thursday, Longhouse Poet scored in the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park, but he looks sure to head down the Grand National route, both English and Irish so be aware if you like him for something at the festival. Diol Ker was a big eye-catcher, and he could be one for a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.

Coeur Sublime had been behind Ferny Hollow the previous twice and got off the mark at the third time of asking over fences. He won with his head in his chest, but the bare form of that is nothing to be excited about. He is now 25/1 for the Arkle, which looks big considering the field.

On Thursday, the well-touted Willie Mullins trained Mercurey ran out an impressive winner on debut in a bumper at Gowran Park. There was plenty to like about the way he quickened up in the closing stages, and he is now a 7/1 chance for the Champion Bumper. The bumper division looks extremely hot this year.

Funambule Sivola a wasted bullet should he go to the hottest Champion Chase in a decade

Funambule Sivola narrowly got his head in front at Doncaster to land a hot class 2 handicap chase over Before Midnight and The Big Bite. Jockey Charlie Deutsch nursed him down to the final flight under no more than hand and heels but found himself hitting the front too soon, but a shake of the reigns and some strong pressure saw him score with a good deal in hand.

He is now 12/1 for the Grand Annual and 33/1 for the Champion Chase.

Surely heading to the hottest Champion Chase for a decade would be a wasted bullet for Venetia Williams when she has a very capable winner of the Grand Annual on her hands. He is potentially a 160 plus horse over 2m, and he has now won the same race Ibelo did the last term before finishing third in the Grand Annual.

He is a better horse than that one. We await the handicapper's reaction, but I expect a 2-3lbs rise in the weights given the almost blanket finish.

Trials day at Cheltenham

You won't see many easier winners than Pied Piper, who oozed class as he cantered all over hit rivals in the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle to run out a commanding nine length winner. He shot to the top of the Triumph Hurdle market at the Cheltenham Festival with the Betfair Sportsbook slashing his odds into 5/2f.

As a direct result of this performance, our selection Vauban, who had finished an unlucky second to Pied Piper at Punchestown, was cut from 7/1 into 9/2 for the same race, while long term ante-post favourite and stable/owner mate Fill Dor was pushed out to 7/2.

Pied Piper's win at Cheltenham on Saturday exposed the poor crop of British Juveniles as highlighted in this column early in its life.

Iceo was vying for favouritism with Pied Piper but flopped. However, Paul Nicholls' runner's debut win at Kempton had taken multiple knocks to the form, and it was such a dominant performance from the winner here that it's unlikely he would have held any say in the finish - although that is presumption.

The time performance of Pied Piper's victory clocked an overall time of 0.09 seconds faster than the previous handicap on the card won by Cormier off a handicap mark of 130 and who had carried eight pounds more. The comparative races were run almost identically until the back straight in which the Juveniles injected pace, but the manner of this victory exuberated professionalism, efficiency in the jumping department and the ability to handle the Cheltenham course extremely well.

Gordon Elliott's comments after the race were interesting...

"They've (Fil Dor) got the same owners, so we may try and split them up. We might run the two of them in the Triumph Hurdle. They're both in the Supreme Novices', and I'd say this is the speedier horse than the other one, and the Friday track might suit Fil Dor better. If one of them is going to go for the Supreme, then it'd be this lad. There's always Aintree and plenty of other options. I wouldn't rule the Supreme out for him - Gordon Elliott, trainer.

There's little knocking you can do of this performance, and the fact that he has now run at the course is a huge positive, even if the level of form is likely below that of his debut run.

However, talk of the Supreme Novice Hurdle is undoubtedly no more than folk law given the poor records of four-year-olds, and he has an almost ready-made Triumph Hurdle winner on his hands who has course experience.

We will be backing him to put ourselves in a very positive position for the Triumph Hurdle closer to the time should he remain around the 5/2 mark.

Nigel Twiston-Davies' Torn And Frayed ran out a very good winner of the Paddy Power Handicap over 2m4f off a handicap mark of 131, and although he will get hit hard by the handicapper with upwards of 8 pounds rise, he looked to have plenty in hand. He could be one to keep an eye on for the Paddy Power Plate, for which he is now a 12/1 chance.

Chantry House was ultimately disappointing in victory when landing the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase. He doesn't look like a natural chaser to my eye, and it's all too much hard work. He failed to land running away from his fences and finished very tired in first-time cheek-pieces. He gave everything and is a lovely horse, but his 14/1 for the Gold Cup in March doesn't appeal at all.

Third Time Lucki to miss Cheltenham?

Third Time Lucki won with a good deal of authority over two inferior rivals at Doncaster on Saturday in what turned into a non-event with For Pleasure falling at the last and Do Your Job, well, not doing his job. Still, it was good to see the horse settle in a small field and race more professionally.

With the absence of Ferny Hollow, he is making more and more appeal for the Arkle in March for which he is a 9.08/1 chance, but he also suffered an overreach injury which could force him out of the festival, according to reports.

Lot's of love for Brandy's sizeable engine

There was plenty of drama in the Solerina Mares Novices Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Saturday, won by Allegorie De Vassy as leader Brandy Love jumped violently out to the left.

Brandy Love was given a free lead from the off but started shifting to her left at the third flight, and it only got progressively worse throughout the race, including at the second to last flight, for which she must have lost in the region of four lengths to five lengths.

It was to her and jockey Paul Townend's credit that the pair were able to get within four lengths of stablemate and winner Allegorie De Vassy, who had sat off the leader in second.

I had been very tempted to put Allegorie De Vassy in this column previously, but I held off, and I am not convinced she had a bundle in hand at the line on this occasion despite the shortcomings of Brandy Love.

In turn, Brandy Love deserves a significant upgrade, and the return to a left-handed track will see her in a much better light. She showed that she has a sizeable engine under the bonnet and she could quite possibly have won by five or six if keeping straight and true. She hit the line very hard despite looking green, and the performance screamed potential improver.

Regarding the Mares Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, Brandy Love could easily get a soft lead with a lack of front runners in the field, and there is only one hurdle should she jump left again that would be a worry, and that's the last.

In the hope that she is extensively schooled and she can put the race at Cheltenham to bed before the final flight, I want to have her onside with this race the plan, and the current 6.05/1 looks more than fair following the weekend's performance.

Silver to strike for the British in Mares Chase

The Mares Chase at the Cheltenham Festival is not for everyone, but I think there is a bit of value to be had with the improving Silver Forever at 11.010/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

The top of this market does look a bit shakey jake. Concertista's recent form has taken more knocks than the doors in the red light district, while Elimay has an attitude question (wouldn't go past in this race last year), and Mount Ida jumps violently out to her right. Riviere D'etel has the stamina to prove and is unlikely to run here, and Gin On Lime hasn't been seen since her race at Cheltenham in November.

Silver Forever is firmly on the upgrade, having scored impressively in back to back chases this season, and Imperial Alcazar gave her seasonal reappearance run an almighty boost by scoring off a handicap mark of 144 by ten lengths at Cheltenham this weekend. It's probably not wise to take that form too literally, given it was a two runner race that the selection met the Fergal O'Brien runner in. Still, she was a commanding winner there and improved further on a time figure basis the next time when she eased down to win at the same Newbury venue.

She is versatile in terms of ground and trip, and her jumping is a joy to behold. This division is not that deep, and she should certainly be shorter on the day for which this is her intended target.

Take the NRNB offer on Appreciate It for the Champion Hurdle

I had to add a third bet to this week's column as the Dublin Racing Festival would have been and gone by next week's edition. There is only one alternative in my mind to Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle, and that is Appreciate It, who doesn't have too much to find if able to reproduce the Supreme Novice Hurdle performance from last year.

Outside of him, it looks like Honeysuckles for the taking. Still, they will meet next Sunday in the Irish Champion Hurdle and instead of backing him there and rolling it up onto this race, as I mentioned previously, I prefer the 5/1 NRNB in the specials tab on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Appreciate It needs to put in a bold show on seasonal return at Leopardstown next week to even go to the Champion Hurdle, granted, but if he doesn't, he will likely be a non-runner anyway, and we will get our cash back.

I expect him to come on a good deal for the run next week and finish inside the top two, and if he shows up to the festival, he will be the fresher horse.

It's not a feat to underestimate for Honeysuckle to land back to back Champion Hurdle's, and she could end up with a real race on her hands here.