Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Trends: Three stats-based tips for Stayers' Hurdle day

Stayers' Hurdle favourite Paisley Park
Paisley Park will bid to win another Stayers' Hurdle crown on Thursday

Mike Norman continues his look at the 10-year trends with today's focus being on the Ryanair Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and the Kim Muir Handicap Chase. Here are his three selections...

"No horse meets all the criteria so the vote goes to last year's winner Lisnagar Oscar at 13.012/1 who is an 8yo, has raced three times this season, last raced within 26-50 days, but instead of winning last time out finished a very encouraging second."

14:30 - Ryanair Chase

Age: Nine one of the last 10 winners were aged either 7, 8 or 9.

Last Time Out Winner: Only four of the last 10 winners won on their previous start.

Seasonal Runs: Seven of the last 10 winners had run either 3 or 4 times that season.

Days Since Last Run: Six of the last 10 winners had run within the last 26-50 days.

Also: Willie Mullins has won the race in three of the last 10 years, while favourites have a good record in the race, winning four and being placed in another four of the last 10 renewals.

Big Negative: Min is the big negative here because of his age, with 10yo's having a poor record in the race. He has also run only two times this season with his latest run being a pulled-up effort.

Summary: We're looking for a horse aged 7, 8 or 9, that has had either 3 or 4 runs this season, raced at least 26 days (but no more than 50 days) ago, is towards the head of the market and is preferably trained by Willie Mullins.

Two horses meet all the criteria in the Ryanair Chase, Allaho and Melon. Both fall into the right age bracket, have had exactly three runs this season, raced between 26 and 50 days ago, are towards the head of the market, and are trained by Mullins. We just prefer Allaho.

15:05 - Stayers' Hurdle

Age: Every one of the last 10 winners were aged 9 years or younger.

Last Time Out Winner: Six of the last 10 winners won on their previous start.

Seasonal Runs: Eight of the last 10 winners had run either 2, 3 or 4 times that season.

Days Since Last Run: Six of the last 10 winners had run within the last 26-50 days.

Also: Favourites have won four of the last 10 renewals with a further two finishing second. All four winning favourites in the last 10 years were priced at 11/8 or shorter.

Big Negative: Among the fancied runners The Storyteller is the big negative, being a 10yo, failing to win last time out, and having had six runs (eight if you include summer jumping) already this season. Paisley Park is also a negative given that he hasn't raced since December last year.

Summary: We're looking for a horse aged 9 years or younger, a last time out winner, one that has had either 2, 3 or 4 runs this season, and raced at least 26 days (but no more than 50 days) ago.

No horse meets all the criteria so the vote goes to last year's winner Lisnagar Oscar at 13.012/1 who is an 8yo, has raced three times this season, last raced within 26-50 days, but instead of winning last time out finished a very encouraging second.

16:50 - Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Age: Eight of the last 10 winners were aged either 7 or 8.

Last Time Out Winner: Every one of the last 10 winners had failed to win on their previous start.

Seasonal Runs: Every one of the last 10 winners had run at least 2 times that season.

Days Since Last Run: Every one of the the last 10 winners had run within the last 100 days.

Also: None of the last eight renewals were won by the favourite, and no horse that fell on its previous start has won the Kim Muir in the last 10 years.

Big Negative: Two of the market leaders - Time To Get Up and Deise Aba - go into the Kim Muir having won last time out, and horses with that profile have a dreadful record in the race, failing to win any of the last 10 renewals.

Summary: We're looking for a horse aged 7 or 8, that didn't win last time out but also didn't fall, one that has had at least two runs this season, raced within the last 100 days, and isn't the favourite,.

A lot of trends to go on here and the one that stands out is Mick Channon's Hold The Note at 9.617/2 who is an 8yo that didn't win last time out (finished a very encouraging second), raced within the last 100 days, has had five runs this season, and isn't the favourite.

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