Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Trends: Three stats-based tips for Champion Chase day

Former Champion Chaser Altior
Altior is a big negative on the 10-year trends ahead of the Champion Chase

The Champion Chase is the feature race on day two of the Cheltenham Festival, and here with his 10-year trends selections - with the help of Timeform data - on three of the afternoon's races is Mike Norman...

"The big negative here has to be Altior, despite being trained by Henderson. He's an 11yo now, and no horse aged over 10 has won any of the last 10 renewals, while he's also had just one run - failing to win - this season, more stats that count massively against him."

13:20 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Age: Nine one of the last 10 winners were aged exactly 6.

Last Time Out Winner: Eight of the last 10 winners won on their previous start.

Seasonal Runs: Nine of the last 10 winners had run either 3 or 4 times that season.

Days Since Last Run: Nine of the last 10 winners had run within the last 26-74 days.

Also: Irish-trained runners have won the race in seven of the last 10 years, while favourites have a very good record of going close, finishing in the first three in nine of the last 10 renewals (four wins). Only one of the last 10 renewals has been won by a horse priced bigger than 8/1.

Big Negative: There are no big negatives here with most of the leading contenders falling into the right age bracket and winning last time out, but this race looks destined to be fought out between the front three in the market - Bog Ollinger, Gaillard Du Mesnil and Bravemansgame - so everything else is readily ruled out.

Summary: We're looking for a horse aged exactly 6, a last time out winner, one that has had either 3 or 4 runs this season, raced at least 26 days (but no more than 74 days) ago, is strongly fancied in the market, and preferably trained in Ireland.

The front three in the betting look rock solid here, but Gaillard Du Mesnil is only a 5yo so is rejected because of the poor record of horses that age, while Bravemansgame isn't Irish-trained so is reluctantly overlooked.

The above maybe a tad harsh, but when one horses meets every criteria then we have to take note. Bog Ollinger is a 6yo who won last time out, has had 3 runs this season, raced within 26-74 days ago, is trained by Irish handler Henry De Bromhead, and is at the very top of the market, priced at 3.55/2. He looks to have outstanding claims.

15:05 - Champion Chase

Age: No horse over the age of 10 has won any of the last 10 renewals

Last Time Out Winner: Six of the last 10 winners won on their previous start.

Seasonal Runs: Seven of the last 10 winners had run either 2 or 3 times that season.

Days Since Last Run: Eight of the last 10 winners had run within the last 26-74 days.

Also: Nicky Henderson has won the Champion Chase in five of the last 10 years, while no horse that fell last time out won in that time.

Big Negative: The big negative here has to be Altior, despite being trained by Henderson. He's an 11yo now, and no horse aged over 10 has won any of the last 10 renewals, while he's also had just one run - failing to win - this season, more stats that count massively against him.

Summary: We're looking for a horse aged 10 or younger, a last time out winner, one that has had either 2 or 3 runs this season, and had raced at least 26 days (but no more than 74 days) ago.

Surprisingly the Champion Chase isn't a great race for 10 year trends, but on the ones that do stand out then the 2.265/4 favourite Chacum Pour Soi is the obvious choice, being in the right age bracket, a last time out winner, and having had three runs this season with his last race within 26-74 days ago.

16:50 - Champion Bumper

Age: Every one of the last 10 winners were aged either 5 or 6.

Last Time Out Winner: Every one of the last 10 winners won on their previous start.

Seasonal Runs: Nine of the last 10 winners had run 3 or fewer times that season.

Days Since Last Run: Eight of the last 10 winners had run within the last 26-74 days.

Also: Irish-trained runners have won the race in seven of the last 10 years, while favourites have a surprisingly poor record, winning just two of the last 10 renewals.

Big Negative: Put simply, any horse that hasn't won last time out or isn't a 5 or 6yo.

Summary: We're looking for a horse aged 5 or 6, a last time out winner, one that has had either 3 or fewer runs this season, raced at least 26 days (but no more than 74 days) ago, trained in Ireland, and is not the market leader.

If we ignore the betting then Kilcruit, Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life all match the 10-year trends criteria, but with favourites having a poor record in the race then the first two named - 3.39/4 and 3.814/5 to back respectively - are overlooked in favour of 9.08/1 shot Three Stripe Life.


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