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Sober Supreme claims surely underestimated
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Hobbs & White hurdler makes appeal at huge odds
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The good Doctor presents a Cheltenham conundrum
Thank you for reading the latest instalment of my Cheltenham Festival Focus and, with the highly informative and entertaining Dublin Racing Festival behind us, there is little doubt the weekend's action had a huge impact on the various Festival ante-post markets.
I could have written 5,000 words analysing the various trials and eyecatchers, but nobody wants that, not least my reader, so included is a brief update on the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle and a selection for the Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
I have also included some brief analysis of Wednesday's cards with a couple of selections for those that way inclined!
Exuberant Steinberg romps to the top of Albert Bartlett betting
In last week's column, I highlighted the chances of Thedeviluno at 14/115.00 for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle so it was with mixed emotions that the ante-post favourite Doctor Steinberg, who beat the selection at Navan before Christmas, posted one of the most impressive novice hurdling performances of the season in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle on Monday.
The Doctor Dino gelding tanked through the 2m6f Grade 1 with such exuberance that many in-running players questioned whether Willie Mullins' chestnut could possibly see out the trip in such exacting conditions.
While his finishing speed percentage did understandably dip below 100, Doctor Steinberg still flew the final flight before powering to an eight-length victory, a success which saw him shorten to as low as 2/13.00 for the Albert Bartlett. He is currently 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook's antepost market.
I did wonder given the way he raced whether his trainer may consider coming back in trip for the Turners on day two as Mullins has never truly been a fan of racing his most talented novices over three miles, irrespective if their stamina looks copper-bottomed; see Final Demand.
Should connections choose to take the shorter option, Thedeviluno backers are in decent shape and I'm still happy with the ante-post position on Paul Nolan's River Don winner as his stamina at the trip is confirmed whereas Doctor Steinberg will be heading into unknown territory if he runs on Gold Cup day.
Although conditions were extremely demanding across the two days - and what an effort it was by all concerned to get the meeting on - there were still a number of high-quality performances not least Talk The Talk who did incredibly well to land the two mile Grade 1 on day one.
In a race run in a crawl early on, Talk Is Talk was settled in rear by JJ Slevin as Ballyfad and King Rasko Grey took the field along at a modest 25-26mph gallop for much of the first circuit, with their respective riders clearly mindful of the demanding conditions.
The steady early pace meant it was likely any horse attempting to make ground from the rear was required to quicken into a gallop which was strengthening from the back straight and that was exactly the scenario which faced Talk The Talk when the front-runners wound up the pace from two out.
Those ridden patiently were totally compromised by the sluggish early tempo, leaving them facing a stiff task to reel in the pacesetters in an event which was run 14 seconds slower overall than the Irish Champion Hurdle and nearly six seconds slower than the concluding bumper.
Somehow, Talk The Talk overcame the hindrance, displaying the same change of gear he showcased at Christmas to overhaul the well-placed front-runners and snatch an unlikely Grade 1 victory on the line.
When questioned if Talk The Talk can go on to win the Supreme, trainer Joseph O'Brien said: "He's probably going to be favourite after that, and he'd certainly have a favourite's chance."
Those were interesting comments given the layers were happy to leave Old Park Star as a clear market leader, while some even preferred El Cairos in their lists to O'Brien's Grade 1 winner, content to cut him to 7/1 third favourite, despite the manner of his victory.
For a horse with plenty of pace and latent speed, I was surprised to hear Ruby Walsh suggest Talk The Talk should go up in trip post-race, but then again, I am about 60 Festival winners behind the great man.
Talk The Talk looks tailor-made for a Supreme in that he has gears and his jumping is getting slicker - he earned a very healthy RaceIQ metric of 8.6 for his hurdling here - and I couldn't possibly put anyone off backing him for the Festival curtain raiser.
However, ante-post betting revolves around timing and, while I think Talk The Talk is still a shade overpriced at a general 5/16.00, the 40/141.00 on offer for Sober Glory will surely be history if he secures another win at Exeter on Sunday in a Listed novices' hurdle.
Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Go for Glory at a whopping 40/1
Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Cheltenham Festival, Tuesday March 10, 13:20
Sober Glory has been on the radar as a big-price play in the Supreme for some time with my only hesitancy being which race connections would target in March.
A strong stayer at two miles with victories at Chepstow and Newbury on his cv, the three-time bumper winner is related to smart bumper winner Fingal Bay who was clearly very talented over further than two miles so there was always a doubt whether the Philip Hobbs & Johnson White operation would send their son of Mount Nelson over further at the spring festivals.
However, Sober Glory holds just one entry at Cheltenham so if he is to go there, the Supreme will be his main aim and a big performance in Exeter's Listed novices' hurdle on Sunday could set him up nicely for the challenge.
Looking at the data from the six-year-old's Newbury win last month, the overall time of the race and speed figure earned was rapid and good enough to see him in the mix for most renewals of the Supreme.
He was an incredible 9.5sec quicker than Fire Warning and near enough 10sec of roughly 60 lengths quicker than the talented Matiwo, a horse Jane Williams rates as one of the best she has ever trained.
That performance put to bed a below-par effort at Sandown where he flopped when well fancied, but he wouldn't be the first young horse to disappoint at the Esher venue and the fact he has won twice at Chepstow gives me confidence he can handle Cheltenham's contours.
Admittedly, Sober Glory still has a way to go to match the likes of Old Park Star, Talk The Talk and El Cairos, but at 40/141.00 he looks grossly overpriced for a horse of his ability.
Back Sober Glory to win the Supreme
Next week's column will deal with what impact a quality card at Newbury had on the Festival markets, until then enjoy another superb weekend's sport and thanks for reading.
Sam Turner's Cheltenham 2026 Ante-post Ledger
Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Act Of Innocence win @ 25/126.00
Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Sober Glory win @ 40/141.00
Arkle Chase - Romeo Coolio @ 11/26.50
Champion Hurdle - Alexei each-way @ 33/134.00
National Hunt Novice Handicap Chase - Zertakt each-way @ 33/134.00
Brown Advisory Novices Chase - Wendigo each-way @ 20/121.00
Stayers' Hurdle - Ma Shantou each-way @ 50/151.00
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle - Thedeviluno win @ 12/113.00
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle - The Blue Room win @ 40/141.00
Gold Cup - Gaelic Warrior win @ 8/19.00