Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: Tony Calvin's going for a Song in the Stayers' Hurdle

I don't have any problem with the Turners at 13:30, being a straight match between Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger - in fact, I think it would be exceptionally marketable if they were literally the only horses running, instead of two others making up the numbers - but I also don't have a betting opinion as to who will come out on top.

So let's ditch the unnecessary chat, and move on to the Pertemps at 14:10.

Not letting Cap go un-backed off this mark

Look, I fully get the case for Winter Fog, Alaphilippe, Dunboyne and Sire Du Berlais and I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of them wins and wins well - I'd say the latter is the most solid, given his superb Festival record - but what I cannot get enthused by are their prices.

The one I am siding with is far less sexy as a 10yo seemingly on the slide, and who has obvious blow-out potential, but I am backing If The Cap Fits win-only on the exchange at 40.039/1 or bigger. Anything bigger than 25/1+ would be fine, but I suspect you will easily get 33s and upwards given his profile, if not more

Let's get a further potential negative out of the way then, and that is he hasn't ripped up any trees in two starts here, but that doesn't concern me at all, as they came in the Stayers' Hurdle last season and in the Cleeve Hurdle. A class apart from this contest.

What does excite me (well, perhaps not excite) is his handicap mark of just 137, and the relative promise of his run last time.

Let's get that mark into focus.

Four starts ago he was rated 150 when splitting Brewinup'astorm (who was carrying a 6lb penalty) and Lisnagar Oscar (that pair are currently rated 155 and 147) in a valuable conditions' race at Aintree in November, but since that very respectable run he has been in freefall in the weights, and was dropped a further 5lb after his outing at Sandown last time.

Sure, his last three handicap performances have not screamed the stuff of an imminent Festival winner but he did remarkably well to take an admittedly distant fifth on the line at Sandown last time considering he was virtually tailed off approaching the second-last.

He is obviously getting on and he is inconsistent but we are looking at a one-time Grade 1 winner, rated 166 at his peak, off just 137 here, with a decent 7lb claimer on board to boot, and no way am I passing him up at the price.

If he is in peak health, then he is tactically and ground versatile to give his jockey options. There aren't many potential forward-goers in here, and he can go from the front, which would allow Ben Bromley to at least stay out of trouble (Saint Sam being brought down in the Arkle is still stinging).

Talking about the ground, things took a dramatic change for the worse on Wednesday, as the rain came in, after 5mm of watering overnight, and we are now looking at heavy.

In fact, we are, as we officially declared thus after a mud-splattered Champion Chase, even though we do move to a different course on Thursday.

Melon looks a tasty each way bet in Ryanair

I will keep the Ryanair at 14:50, quick and simple.

Even with so many pace rivals potentially ranged against him, I really don't see Allaho getting chinned here. But usual rules apply, and those are that you don't need me to tell you that and I simply won't put up odds-on pokes in this column to tick the winner box.

I like the Without Favourite market here, and I love Melon at 13/2 each way.

Mind you, if you told me after the King George that Saint Calvados would have been 10/1 on this line then I would have gone out and bought two wheelbarrows, but they decided to run him at Ascot in between and he bled there, so he does come with an obvious downside now (though at least he was pulled up 4 out, so he didn't exhaust himself).

Melon is not everyone's favourite, but the facts are that he is a four-time runner-up at the Festival, and has not run too far off his best this year, finishing third in a John Durkan, a close fourth in the Savills and he converted his penalty kick at Gowran last time.

I just think he is rock-solid and a good bet at 13/2 each way without the big one here. He has form in the mud and over further, which is obviously going to come in very handy.

As I said, I was really tempted by the 10s about Saint Calvados, unlucky not to take this race two years ago, on this market - he was basically that price, and second favourite, to win the race before Ascot - but he has had less than four weeks to get over that, and that is a massive negative. I did ask Paul Nicholls - read his Day 3 preview here - about the horse though, and he is very happy with him, though he didn't want the rain.

I'll sing for anyone if Song wins the Stayers

The main contenders in the Stayers' Hurdle at 15:30 are all as mad as a box of frogs, so I think you have to think outside of that box.

The "solid" one of the Big Five is probably last year's winner Flooring Porter but I am going to put up an outsider in Song For Someone at 44.043/1 win-only on the exchange.

I also backed Home By The Lee at 50s last week, and mentioned him positively on the Betfair Cheltenham Festival preview, but I have gone off him a touch. The bet has been placed though, so I hope my waning confidence is misplaced.

Perhaps similar to some of the market leaders, you will probably know your fate with Song For Someone very early on, if he is on one of his sulking, intransigent, days.

On at least a couple of occasions, he has looked decidedly uninterested from flag fall and a sour individual, but I do like the angle of him stepping up to 3m for the first time, even if his pedigree suggests he would struggle to get 1m4f on the Flat.

Listen, there are plenty of negatives about this horse, and that is why he is the price he is, and he comes here on the back of a poor run at Sandown last time, while his stable's horses have also been running like a drain.

The case for him gets better, trust me.

In his two starts around here, he has won an International and been beaten just ½ length in the same race this season under a 6lb penalty (despite, again, not travelling early), and if he returns to the form of his Ascot run in November - and stays - then he will give these all a scare.

That Ascot run over an extended 2m3f saw him being beaten just 3 ¼ lengths, trying to give Buzz 6lb - and the Nicky Henderson grey would probably be favourite for this race had he not been injured - with subsequent Grade 2 winners Guard Your Dreams and Goshen in behind.

I am happy to have a swing at 40/1+, even if better ground would have put the emphasis less on stamina. He has form on heavy, though.

Spirit can pick them off late

I was all set to tip Coole Cody when the declarations came through on Tuesday morning, on a falling mark, off a short break, on decent ground (or so I thought) on a track he excels at - but when I did the pace map for this race I had 13 of the 22 runners marked down as forward-goers.

That is not good news for this front-runner, so I deserted him. I hope I don't rue that as he is 28/1+ on the exchange.

Don't laugh, I know he hasn't won since 2018, but I am putting up Spiritofthegames each-way at 20/1, six places.

I have nothing against the market leaders but I think this race could set up perfectly for this closer, who is now on his lowest-ever chase mark, despite a much better run when third here last time.

He has loads of Cheltenham and Festival form and he is now 13lb lower than when sixth, beaten just 5 ½ lengths, in this race two years ago, having finished third in it a year earlier. He has won on soft - indeed his best form has come on it - but I would prefer the ground to remain nearer good for him than heavy (which he has never raced on) but he does stay further than this trip.

Fogpatches looks solid in the Kim Muir

I fully get the case for Dinoblue in the 16:50, as she was very impressive in a good time on her debut win at Clonmel in early January.

The form has worked out too, and she could be a top-notcher after just the one run, but being asked to take around 11/4 about her on the exchange in a 22-runner race in which she faces a plethora of lightly-raced, improving and unexposed winners is not my kind of bet.

I do think she is the most likely winner, though. I appreciate the Betfair Sportsbook are offering five places, and that brings Party Central and Grangee firmly into the betting equation, but I will sit this one out.

Ideally, I would want to back Mister Fogpatches each way in the Kim Muir at 17:30 but the Sportsbook are currently ducking him at 13/2 - rightly in my opinion - with 8s available elsewhere, so I can hardly tip him.

I am happy to side with him at 10.09/1 or bigger win-only on the exchange, though.

The case for him is straightforward, and hopefully compelling.

Third in a Scottish National, a Cork National and a Troytown within the last 12 months, he had a first sighter of this track when second to the runaway, all-the-way winner Commodore in December and then he came out and ran another blinder when third in the Thyestes last time.

Kept fresh since that run in late January, the UK handicapper has only given him an extra 2lb and, given a relatively blemish-free round - he can hit one - he just looks very solid to me. The ground is a worry admittedly, but I am willing to take the chance.

A quiet day with only five bets, but I am happy with all the big-price plays. Best of luck.

***

PACE MAPS

1.30pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Galopin Des Champs, El Barra; Midfield; Bob Olinger; Held Up: Busselton

2.10pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: If The Cap Fits, Kansas City Chief; Midfield; Dunboyne, Tullybeg, Folcano, The Jam Man, Dallas Des Pictons, Honest Vic, Pileon, Whatsnotoknow, Mill Green, Go Another One, Stoney Mountain; Held Up: Sire Du Berlais, Winter Fog, Alaphilippe, Sassy Yet Classy, Ballyandy, Born Patriot, Dame de Compagnie, Third Wind, Coeur Serein, Didtheyleaveuoutoo, The Cob;

2.50pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Allaho. Shan Blue. Eldorado Allen, Conflated; Midfield; Melon, Mister Fisher, Fanion D'Estruval; Held Up: Janidil, Saint Calvados

3.30pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream; Midfield; Royal Kahala, Lisnagar Oscar, Song For Someone, Koshari, Home By The Lee; Held Up: Thyme Hill, Champ, Paisley Park

4.10pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Coole Cody, Imperial Alcazar, The Glancing Queen, Grand Paradis, Simply The Betts, Adrimel, Schiehallion Munro, Stolen Silver, Wishing And Hoping, Pistol Whipped, Born By The Sea, Presentandcounting, Slate House; Midfield; Spiritofthegames, Cavalry Master, Guy; Held Up: Celebre D'Allen, Fusil Raffles, Fancy Foundations, Hardline, Chinwag, Fire Away

4.50pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Brandy Love. Love Envoi, Choice Of Words, Heia, Lady Adare, Ahorsewithnoname. The Player Queen, Tweed Skirt, Walk In Clover; Midfield; Dinoblue, Party Central, Grangee, Statuaire. Mighty Blue, Say Goodbye, Mayhem Mya, Walk In Clover, Night And Day?; Held Up: Impervious, Nurse Susan, Hors Piste, Mi Lighthouse, Nina The Terrier, Braganza, Monishter Are Mwee

5.30pm Cheltenham - Lead/Prominent: Fakir D'Alene, Elegant Escape, Almazhar Garde, Lord Accord, Mindsmadeup, Omar Maretti, Rocco, Red Infantry; Midfield; Frontal Assault, Ain't That A Shame, Janika, Cat Tiger, School Boy Hours, Mister Fogpatches, Mister Coffey, Mint Condition, Glenloe, Rightplacerighttime, Powerstown Park; Held Up: Smoking Gun, Come On Teddy, The Mighty Don, Chambard, Larry