Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: Royal Kahala has it all to do in the Stayers' Hurdle

The card kicks off with the Grade 1 Turners Novices' Chase at 13:30, a four-runner race without a single English trainer or jockey involved.

None of the four were bred in England, but then not that many Festival runners are.

A toss-up between two flawless novice chasers

The form book points to it being a two-horse race and that is reflected in the Exchange odds. Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger have been shifting between 2.021/1 and 2.285/4, El Barra is 25.024/1 and Busselton 48.047/1.

The two market leaders both won at Cheltenham last March. They are unbeaten over fences, jump well and post fast times. The handicapper rates Galopin Des Champs 3lb superior to Bob Olinger, as he has won a Grade 1 chase, whereas Bob Olinger has kept marginally lesser company.

I don't have a preference for either, as they are to all intents and purposes flawless.

Since they are rated 16lb clear of Busselton and El Barra, it seems pointless making a case for the two outsiders.

Pertemps Final is best left alone

The Pertemps Network Final at 14:10 is the sort of race punters seem to love, but which is an anathema for layers. A maximum field of 24 handicappers one of which has run just once this winter, in order to qualify for this final.

That's Fergal O'Brien's Alaphilippe 9.08/1, the only English-trained runner shorter than 26.025/1. I looked at him long and hard as a possible place lay but his trainer has clearly had this race in mind ever since Alaphilippe ran fifth in the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago. His recent run in a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick will have set him up nicely, so I wouldn't care to bet against him.

The Irish have won the last six runnings with quietly-fancied horses, so it is a brave man who lays the likes of Winter Fog or one of the six trained by Gordon Elliott.

Shan Blue appeals as a place lay in the Ryanair

Since the Ryanair Chase, off at 14:50, was first run in 2005, only one horse has won it in consecutive years - Albertas Run in 2010 and 2011. That fact alone will cause many to lay the odds-on favourite Allaho, despite him being an impressive winner 12 months ago.

He was subsequently beaten by Chacun Pour Soi when dropped back to two miles at Punchestown but has since won his two races over the Ryanair trip. There are too many positives for me to be interested in laying him.

I would sooner lay the third favourite, Shan Blue, for a place 2.89/5. The eight-year-old has been off the course since falling when well clear at Wetherby in October, and that doesn't seem the ideal preparation for a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival.

Conflated comes on from Leopardstown where he was a surprise winner of their Gold Cup. Eldorado Allen won the Denman Chase at Newbury. Janidil has been placed in Grade 1s at Leopardstown and Punchestown since winning one as a novice at Fairyhouse last April.

Add Allaho to that trio and there is a pretty good chance Shan Blue won't make the first three.

Royal Kahala looks out of her depth

The case for Royal Kahala not being placed in the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at 15:30 is based on her handicap mark.

The first five in the betting - Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream, Thyme Hill, Champ and Paisley Park - are all rated 160+. Royal Kahala is 148.

Given the three outsiders are 150+, it is beyond odd that Royal Kahala is going to go off at 10.09/1 for a win and 4.03/1 for a place. She is a recent winner of a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 but still doesn't tick as many boxes as those ahead of her in the betting.

Celebre looks up against it

The bookies have taken no chances with Celebre d'Allen in the Craft Irish Whiskey Chase at 16:10. The 10-year-old was chalked up as ante-post favourite despite no horse his age winning the race in recent years.

Like many Festival handicaps, it tends to go the way of unexposed younger runners rather than a veteran that missed two years through injury. There is no doubt he is a horse in form - Philip Hobbs has placed him carefully to win handicap hurdles at Haydock off 120 and 126, plus a Warwick chase off 135 - but he now has a mark of 141, so isn't exactly thrown in.

A word of caution if you lay him for a place at around 3.02/1. Owner Allan Stennett has a good record in the race with French imports Ballynagour and Salut Flo winning in 2014 and 2012. They were significantly younger, though, and ahead of the handicapper. I would be most surprised if Celebre d'Allen proves to be.

Smart money for Dinoblue rules out intended lay

My long-term Plan A to lay Brandy Love to win the Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle at 16:50 has been scuppered by her odds lengthening in the last 48 hours.

There has been a JP McManus-inspired gamble on her stablemate Dinoblue 3.711/4, who won her sole start to date at Clonmel by 15 lengths. It wasn't much of a race on paper but she won stylishly and her owner must think she will be hard to beat.

Brandy Love's Grade 3 second at Fairyhouse makes her an unlikely winner but she will most likely be placed.

Party Central 8.07/1, on the other hand, is an improving handicapper who may be out of her depth. She will be around 32/1 for a place, and that might be the best way to go if you want to lay in the race.

She was 26 lengths behind Impervious, who is twice her odds, at Down Royal in October but Davy Russell didn't ride her out to the line after she was squeezed for room at the second last. I would not rush to lay her but she is far from certain to make the first three.

Three of the last six winners of the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase have come from Gordon Elliott's yard. His Frontal Assault is 5.69/2 is favourite and ridden by last year's winning rider, Robert James. It's 8.415/2 bar and another Festival handicap best left alone.